Twitter Observations: The Dust Has Settled
Even as the rest of the world is thrown off schedule, we can always rely on the NFL. They forge ahead, giving us a much-needed distraction with their off-season intrigue. We covered the initial free agent frenzy out of the gate in the last edition but have the benefit of hindsight now that the dust has settled. So, let’s look at a few of the biggest moves from the second half of free agency.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Tampa? I don’t even have a pun for this title. Tampa?!?!
TB ✖️ TB pic.twitter.com/oyzSdNn1ZE
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) March 20, 2020
Yes! After all the speculation about Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots, he actually did it. But perhaps more surprising was the landing spot. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been mediocre for as long as they’ve existed, totaling just seven (!) double-digit win seasons in their 35-year history. Yet, they were the winners of the Brady sweepstakes.
Besides the drama surrounding his arrival, dynasty players are super intrigued by exactly how this offense will work. In Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Brady hasn’t had two receivers this good since his historic 2007 season when he threw for 4,800 yards and 50 touchdowns. Granted, he’s 13 years older now but the possibilities are exciting.
Dynasty Impact: It was always assumed that Brady would have a better supporting cast in 2020 than he did in 2019, whether it was in New England or not. But now that we know he’s armed with two of the best receivers in the league, his dynasty value just got a huge boost. The ADP chart below, putting his ADP in the lower 20s, still takes into account pre-Bucs Brady. That’s sure to get a bump while still being relatively affordable. It’s not as if the move suddenly catapults him to a dynasty top-ten ranking but he could be a QB1 for the next two seasons, which is also the duration of his contract. There shouldn’t be a ton of demand for him in one-quarterback leagues so If you have a hole at the position, Brady would be a fine target.
Savage Gordon
It would have made more sense for Tampa Bay to continue their free-agent splurge and add Melvin Gordon to the backfield instead of where Gordon eventually ended up. Yes, what the Denver Broncos did by signing the former Los Angeles Charger is addition by subtraction of a division rival while adding a solid player to the roster. But at running back? When you have two pretty good players to begin with? At least Denver can now boast of having a dynasty RB1, RB2, and RB3 on their team, as shown by their current ADP:
Dynasty Impact: Unless the Broncos run either Phillip Lindsay or Royce Freeman out of town, none of the Denver backs will be worth their current dynasty ADP. That seems unlikely as both Lindsay and Freeman are still on their rookie contracts which makes them incredibly cheap. Therefore, it appears Denver might try a 49ers-style rushing attack with three running backs seeing their fair share of snaps. If you use last year’s San Francisco team as a model, the highest-scoring running back was Raheem Mostert who only finished as an RB2/3 in fantasy scoring. Yikes. I would look to trade any of these Bronco backs as fast as you can.
Sky Robby
Former Jets’ WR Robby Anderson is signing a two-year, $20 million deal including $12 million in year one with the Carolina Panthers, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 24, 2020
One of the last big names to sign in free agency, Robby Anderson signed a short deal with the Carolina Panthers. He’ll be reunited with his former college coach Matt Rhule and is expected to immediately start opposite young stud, DJ Moore, at receiver. It wasn’t a huge deal – two years, $20 million – but it wasn’t chump change either and shows the Panthers are devoting a decent amount of cap space to the receiver.
Dynasty Impact: The fact that Anderson is reunited with Rhule, who was the college coach that molded him into an NFL prospect is maybe the only positive for Anderson’s dynasty value. He’ll not only play second fiddle to Moore in targets but there’s a good chance he’s behind Christian McCaffrey too. Being third in targets in Carolina means it’ll be difficult to match the 101 targets-per-season he’s averaged his last three seasons as a Jet. And while his 14.8 career yards-per-reception is excellent, if he sees a dip in targets it will mean an immediate dip in fantasy production. His current dynasty ADP of 42nd among receivers means he should be your WR3/4. That valuation is both optimistic and a good value. If someone values him as a WR2, by all means, accept the deal. But keeping him where he is means you can hold him while we see just how good this new Panthers offense will be.
Stairway to Ebron
Eric Ebron to the #Steelers is official. The team announced it has signed the TE to a two-year deal. #HereWeGo
— Missi Matthews (@missi_matthews) March 30, 2020
It may have taken a while to become official but the Steelers finally signed tight end Eric Ebron. On the surface, it didn’t look like tight end was an urgent part of the offense for Pittsburgh. After all, the incumbent, Vance McDonald finished just fifth on the team in targets last season. But it’s obvious that Pittsburgh would much prefer a return to how the offense looked in 2018 when McDonald finished third on the team in targets and had a final stat line of 72-50-610-4. Now the only question is what Pittsburgh does with the (no pun intended) Old McDonald and New McDonald.
Dynasty Impact: Collectively, the Steelers have over $7 million in cap space tied up in both tight ends. However, in this specific scenario, I’d go with the shiny new toy over the old one. Right now, Ebron is our 18th-ranked dynasty tight end after a down year in which he didn’t even finish as a TE2 in fantasy scoring. He’s just 26 which means he’s still younger than five tight ends ahead of him and, if Ben Roethlisberger can look anything like he did in 2018, a vastly superior option at quarterback than Ebron had last year in Jacoby Brissett. It shouldn’t be assumed Ebron will be a top-five fantasy tight end again like he was when Andrew Luck was still around, but he certainly won’t be outside the top-24 either. The money indicates the Steelers want him involved which means I’d be buying.
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