Ranking Confessions: Running Backs

Bruce Matson Posted On March 3, 2020

I consider myself a ‘Zero-RB’ zealot. I’m very frugal with my approach to running backs. It’s very rare that I spend heavy draft capital on the position. That means the players I have ranked in the top 20 are not likely to get drafted by me in startup drafts.

When I’m in a startup draft, I pay close attention to where the running backs are falling. My goal is to get my running back at a discount to avoid the year-to-year volatility. This strategy doesn’t go without its risks, but I trust my ability to snipe running backs in trades and future rookie drafts.

I’m also a big fan of implementing tiers in my ranks. I like to diversify between players who are close in value. Therefore, I’m getting a mix of my preferred players in my overall portfolio, allowing me to build different teams.

Today, I’m going to provide some insight on three running backs I have ranked higher compared to the rest of the staff at DLF. My goal is to provide some insight to my process and to why I have these players ranked the way I do.

Derrick Henry, Free Agent

My Rank: 3 DLF Rank: 8

Henry scored 20 fantasy points or more in six of his last seven games and he also averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game on the season. On top of that, he led the league with 1,540 rushing yards. He will be a free agent this off-season and he is looking to get paid.

When it comes to my ranking, I have him in the same tier as Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, and Nick Chubb. When it comes to trades and selecting players in startup drafts, I value all of these players the same. If anything, I might diversify from one to the other depending on how my current ownership rates look.

With his recent success, I feel that he’s a player who I could easily sell for a profit. Per Pro Football Focus, he was able to generate 4.18 yards after contact per attempt which was the highest among all running backs with 150 carries or more. Not only was he elusive, but he was second in the league with 18 runs going for 15 yards or more which is very impressive for a 247-pound running back.

Honestly, I’m not drafting him or any of the top running backs not named Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey at full value. I like to build my teams around young promising wide receivers. I will happily draft him if he falls past his typical asking price. Outside of that, I may have him ranked high along with the other big-time running backs, but I’m not going to be acquiring many shares in startup drafts this season.

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Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.

Historical ADP shows that he’s one of the most coveted running backs in the league. He has been valued no less than an RB2 during the course of his career. His current ADP of 17 overall lends that notion that I won’t be acquiring him in many startup drafts since I mainly targeting wide receivers in that stage of the draft. If I’m switching things up, and going running back-heavy in a certain draft, then I’m going to pull the trigger early.

He’s 25 years old and he should have a few more years left in the tank before we have to worry about him hitting the age apex. The big risk for any feature back in their mid-20’s is that the heavy workload wears down some quicker than others. Some of it is due to cumulative damage throughout the years and some of it is due to just slowing down with age. I think his limited usage during the first couple of years of his career may help prolong his shelf life and elevate him from slowing down sooner due to not having the extra wear on his tires.

The major worry for me about Henry is his usage in the passing game. He only has 74 targets over the course of his four-year career. Kamara saw 97 in 2019 alone. Henry’s floor isn’t bolstered by the passing game, which could yield volatile results if things get shaky with the rest of the offense.

Nonetheless, he’s a very good running back. He finished the 2019 season on fire which could make him a screaming sell in some dynasty leagues. I’m a guy who likes to chase young talented wide receivers in startup drafts. I hold Henry highly amongst the running backs, but overall, unless he falls in the draft, I’m more than likely going to overlook him for the next up and coming wide receiver prospect.

Derrius Guice, WAS

My Rank: 15 DLF Rank: 26

I have him ranked higher than the consensus. He will definitely fall back a few spots once we incorporate the rookies from this year’s class. I don’t consider him a must-get asset for my dynasty teams. I value him highly because I know he’s going to be the lead running back for the Redskins in 2020. I want to see him play a full year before I write him off completely. Also, he’s only 22-years-old and he should have plenty of years ahead of him to prove himself.

We are looking at a lot of ambiguity at the running back position. Most running backs are highly volatile from week to week, let alone from one year to the next. Injuries, game scripts and bad offensive line play can drastically change a running back’s value. At 224 pounds with a 4.49 40-yard-dash, Guice has the profile of a three-down workhorse back. He runs with purpose and packs a lot of inertia at the point of contact.

There’s a lot of risk associated with Guice. A lot of people want to avoid risk early in drafts. I also try to remain as risk-averse as possible. However, he’s a player who I find falls farther than what his ADP indicates in startup drafts. You can get Guice discounted in a lot of drafts. If he falls much past his projected value, then I’m willing to take a shot on him.

Speaking of risk, injuries are starting to mount up. He suffered an ACL tear that canceled his rookie season in 2018. Last season, he had a meniscus tear that caused him to miss nine games. Then he followed that injury with an MCL sprain that caused him to miss a few games. The Redskins can only tolerate their running back prospect missing multiple games each season for so long. A change will happen if he can’t get healthy.

Washington’s offense is far from stable. This is a team that has been rebuilding during my entire lifetime. Dwayne Haskins’ development is going to fuel the long-term fantasy impact for all of the wide receivers and running backs on the team. Even if Guice bursts onto the scene this year, his ceiling could be in question due to the team’s ability to sustain drives and get into the red zone. Without consistent touchdown production, Guice would need to make headway as a receiver out of the backfield.

I like him as a mid-round pick with a lot of upside. I’m a wide receiver connoisseur and I’m going to let him fall if there’s a wide receiver on the board who I highly covet. It really depends on how my team is built, before I decide to take a chance on him. I have him highly ranked among running backs, but as a whole, the position loses all tiebreakers to young wide receivers in the early rounds of startup drafts.

Mike Boone, MIN

My Rank: 62 DLF Rank: 84

I have him as my 62nd running back. At this stage in my rankings, I’m chasing youth and upside. At this range, there should be no consistency or stability with any of these players. If we are throwing darts here, then we might as well shoot our shot on an athletic specimen. He’s a home-run threat whenever he touches the ball. Of course, he’s raw, but if he was a lock to be a stud performer, then he would ultimately be ranked higher by everyone else in the world.

Alexander Mattison was drafted by the Vikings in the third round of last year’s draft. He is a huge threat to Boone seeing any scalable playing time. Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the league and unless he gets injured or endures a contract dispute in the near future, he will be the lead back for the team.

Again, I’m shooting for the moon and hoping to land in the start with Boone. I want running backs like him on the backend of my roster. If it doesn’t work out for me, then I can easily cut him and move on to another prospect.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.