The Lights Stayed on in Georgia: The Dynasty Impact of Todd Gurley to the Falcons

Ken Kelly

I was all ready to post an article today that would have been named, “LA Clippers: The Impact of Todd Gurley getting cut by Los Angeles.” The crazy thing is the Atlanta Falcons worked with Gurley overnight and had him signed before many of us even woke up this morning. As such, we have even more analysis and players impacted by the whirlwind of activity surrounding a player who was nearly the league’s MVP and the undisputed 1.01 pick in dynasty drafts not too long ago. Let’s go through each of the players affected by Todd Gurley’s arrival in Hotlanta:

Side Note: My dream of all dreams of for Bill Belichick one day to be named Coach of the Falcons so I can write an article called, “The Devil Went Down to Georgia.”

Todd Gurley, RB ATL

In July of 2018, the Rams signed Gurley to a monster four-year, $60 million contract extension with $45 million in guaranteed money. The 2018 season went to form as Gurley posted 1,251 rushing yards, had 59 catches, 580 receiving yards and scored 21 total touchdowns during the regular season. However, the postseason was not nearly as kind as his touches were scaled back tremendously and rumors starting swirling about the health of his knees and the mileage he has accrued on his body. Something was clearly going on as Gurley had only 11 touches in the Super Bowl, but the Rams stubbornly declined to say much.

Last year, Gurley had just 223 rushing attempts, the lowest in his career. He also averaged just 3.8 yards per carry as the Rams just never seemed to be dedicated to re-establishing him as a bellcow running back. Los Angeles decided to release him before owing him around $10 million yesterday, despite a massive $25.6 million in dead money that is now left on their cap.

The big question now is just how healthy Gurley is. He clearly wasn’t himself last season as he was PFF’s lowest graded receiver at the running back position and rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in 11 of his 14 games last year – far from the dominant player we’ve seen in the past. Was it the Rams and their perplexing misuse of him?  Was it the poor blocking from the Los Angeles offensive line? Did Jared Goff and his regression hurt him that much? Is Sean McVay really an idiot?  Does Gurley have some type of arthritic condition in his knees keeping him back from having that same juice he once had? The fact is, nobody really knows the answer for certain and his physical (whenever that may be) is going to be telling.

Assuming he gets medical clearance and all things move forward as planned, Gurley will be playing on a one-year $5 million contract – peanuts for a player with his kind of elite talent. While many will look at this and simply say Gurley is cooked, it should be noted the days of paying running backs monster contracts just may not be a great investment any longer as well.  The fact is, the Rams just couldn’t survive a salary cap environment with Jared Goff, Aaron Donald and Gurley all making this much money, especially if they believed one of them just wasn’t going to be the same elite player.

In Atlanta, Gurley should walk in and start right away. While the Falcons could add another running back through the draft, the competition of Ito Smith and Brian Hill for touches isn’t exactly fierce. Gurley clearly has a chance to reclaim RB2 value in dynasty, but he’s a very risky pickup. He may end up looking like the Gurley of old in a very explosive offense, or he could prove to be damaged goods and relegated to being a goal line back. While his ADP will likely never go back to where it once was, it should start to climb a bit with this move if and when he passes his physical – just don’t pay 2019 prices for Gurley this off-season as the risk is just too high to merit anything close to that.  There are few players with the ceiling and floor Gurley has in dynasty leagues next year and that makes this pretty fun.

todd gurley dynasty adp 1

Ito Smith and Brian Hill, RBs ATL

Smith was a popular sleeper last year, but barely got on the field even as Devonta Freeman really struggled. He also endured a nasty neck injury and concussion late in the year that ended his season. This come on the heels of him missing the end of his rookie year with a knee injury as well. Hill has shown some flashes here and there, but has never been good with a high volume of touches. In fact, he was only able to gain 91 yards on 35 carries in the two games he had big workloads last year and that was good for less than a pedestrian three yards per tote.  In short, neither of these may not be the answer even as a RB2 in Atlanta. Look for the Falcons to add some more depth to the backfield this off-season.

ito smith vs brian hill

Matt Ryan, QB ATL

With the additions of Gurley and Hayden Hurst, the Falcons are clearly going all-in as the careers of Ryan and Julio Jones start to hit their decline. If Gurley is back into form, you could certainly see another super season coming from Ryan.

matt ryan dynasty adp co

Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, WRs ATL

It’s never a bad thing to have a solid running game. It’s fair to wonder just what Gurley has left. However, if he’s even 80% of the player he once was, defenses will need to account for him and that should free up some area for these two to work. With Hurst and Gurley added, things should be a little easier for this pair next season.

julio jones vs calvin ri

Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, RBs LAR

This is where it gets interesting.

Henderson was a very popular rookie pick last year, but his season was a bust as he posted just 147 yards and no touchdowns on just 3.8 yards per carry. He was also only able to catch four passes for 37 yards. It could be argued Brown looked every bit as good as Gurley or Henderson as well, though that isn’t exactly something to be proud of as he posted just 255 yards and five touchdowns.

Our own Ryan McDowell may have put it best.

Savvy dynasty owners are not just jumping the gun here and making outlandish trades for Brown or Henderson at the moment. While it’s possible Henderson wins the job and has a solid season, you’d be buying at market price right now. If the Rams add another running back through the draft or free agency, that price will have been much, much too high.

darrell henderson vs mal

Jared Goff, QB LAR

Best of luck.

ken kelly