Austin Powers His Way Out: The Dynasty Impact of Austin Hooper to the Browns

Ken Kelly

The Browns wasted no time in free agency today as they quickly swooped in and agreed to terms with former Falcons tight end Austin Hooper on a four-year deal for $44 million, with $23 million guaranteed. The move is an interesting one and has far reaching dynasty impact ranging from Arizona all the way to Baltimore, yes Baltimore.  We take a look at the aftermath of this big free agent deal and analyze those who have seen their dynasty value affected, even in subsequent moves.

Austin Hooper, TE CLE

The contract is a monster one for Hooper and makes him the highest paid tight end in the league. It’s clear the Browns were serious about upgrading the position, but this is a huge contract for a player who was never posted more than 800 yards or six touchdowns in any given season. Still, credit the Browns for having a target and pouncing on him quickly. Hooper is coming off his best season as he posted 75 catches for 787 yards and six touchdowns in just 13 games with the Falcons last season. It’s fair to wonder just what kind of fantasy value he’ll have in Cleveland, but it’s really hard to see him putting up numbers that would match his contract – for that, he’d need to be in the realm of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz. While Hooper was right in line with those players last season in terms of PPG, he’s leaving a very pass happy offense in Atlanta for one that will still feature Nick Chubb (and likely Kareem Hunt) and has the tandem of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry to soak up targets from Baker Mayfield, who had 60 fewer pass attempts than Matt Ryan last season.

Hooper will clearly remain a TE1, but his production will likely be similar to that of a mid-range TE1, not an elite one. There were many worse places for him to land, but he’s also leaving one of the best places for production behind him and we may have already seen what his ceiling really looks like. He should be solid, but I have my doubts he’ll be spectacular.

 

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David Njoku, TE CLE

The Browns had indicated they were going to exercise the fifth year option on Njoku’s contract, but that seems impossible now.  A change of scenery is going to be in the cards for Njoku and he could really use it.  The former first round pick has posted a mere 1,066 receiving yards and nine touchdowns across 36 games and three seasons. He really hit rock bottom last season as he played in just four games and had only ten targets for 41 receiving yards all season. Njoku is supposedly over his wrist injury, but obviously couldn’t fight his way out of the Browns doghouse (or is it Dawghouse?)  Regardless, there are going to be teams out there in need of competent tight ends and franchises like the Redskins, Packers and Patriots could all be in play here. While it’s possible the Browns could just swallow the cap hit and keep Njoku, it stands to reason they’ll try to get some sort of return for him sooner, rather than later. A new home via a trade would likely help salvage Njoku’s suffering ADP.

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Baker Mayfield, QB CLE

A new year, a new weapon for Mayfield. While his 2019 campaign wasn’t nearly as good as his rookie season, Mayfield will be given every possible chance to be successful again this year. With an offense featuring Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Hooper, there are really no excuses for Mayfield to regress any further.  Sure, the offensive line needs some work. However, this is an embarrassment of riches that most quarterbacks would really thrive with, regardless of their offensive lines, coaches, coordinators or pre-game meals. His ADP should steady out at this point.

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Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, WRs CLE

You could see Hooper steal some of the targets from this talented pair, but I find it hard to believe his addition is going to do much to change their collective dynasty values. Beckham is primed for a bounce-back year and Landry remains an absolute target monster – if someone in your league believes otherwise, I’d pounce on either of these players at their current pricetags.

 

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Hayden Hurst, TE ATL

The Falcons acted fast after losing Hooper by trading a second and fifth round pick in the draft for Hurst and a fourth round selection. The former first round pick had fallen out of favor in Baltimore and had also fallen behind both Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle on the Ravens depth chart. If there’s a clear winner in this multi-move tight end carousel, it’s Hurst.  After catching just 30 passes for 349 yards and scoring just twice as a player targeted a little more than two times per game, it looks like he’ll replace a player who averaged over seven targets per game with Atlanta. Hurst is available in a lot of dynasty leagues and he’s going to be a popular waiver pickup or late rookie and free agent draft selection. He’s clearly back on the radar with this move and should emerge as a weekly play at the tight end position in dynasty leagues.

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