Twitter Observations: Spring Break Edition
By this time next week, the oxymoronic ‘legal tampering’ period for NFL free agency will have begun. That makes this week the last for the status quo as far as players on your dynasty teams. Not only will several be on the move because of new contracts but others will have been cut because of those new contracts. So take advantage of the time you have left before things get really crazy for your fantasy team.
Fournette-Me-Not
Some talk of fading #Jaguars Leonard Fournette at ADP due to more passing w/ Jay Gruden as OC.
Over the past three seasons in neutral scripts (game score within three points & exclude two min drills), Gruden's ratios are close w/ the Jags.
Pass % includes sacks. pic.twitter.com/l5Y64o8IxL
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) March 7, 2020
After failing to live up to the expectation of being the fourth overall pick, Fournette finally played up to his draft position in 2019. Not only did he turn in a career-high 1,152 yards on the ground but he added another 522 yards receiving. There was some concern after the Jaguars brought in Jay Gruden to be their new play-caller as most remember his (attempted) use of running backs used exclusively in the passing game. But as the tweet above shows, the game scripts for the Jaguars and Redskins under Gruden were similar which is good news for Fournette.
Dynasty Impact: As Fournette continued to play well last season, his dynasty ADP continued to rise and finally reached the top ten.
We covered Fournette’s dynasty value before, but things have changed including the hiring of Gruden. Jacksonville is also likely to stick with second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew who played a majority of the Jaguars games last year while Fournette produced the best season of his NFL career. The Jaguars are also in the lower half of the NFL in cap space and would be hard-pressed to spend money on a running back. It may have looked like an easy decision to sell a few months ago but Fournette could be a stud running back for at least a couple more years.
Drake a Leg
Fun Fact: Among every running back who's ever totaled 450-plus carries, #Cardinals RB (and pending free agent) Kenyan Drake ranks 15th all-time in yards per carry (4.77). What makes it more impressive is that he played 54-of-62 games with the Dolphins.
— Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) March 6, 2020
Not many people would have considered Kenyan Drake as one of the top free-agent running backs this year but here we are. After the trade that sent him from Miami to Arizona, Drake was a top-five (!) fantasy running back and did the once-unthinkable by making David Johnson an afterthought. He averaged over 100 yards per game and a score in his eight games in Arizona while rejuvenating the Cardinals offense. It may surprise some but, as the tweet above illustrates, it probably shouldn’t. And for those Drake truthers that have stuck with him, it validated the notion that he could do it all.
Dynasty Impact: I can’t imagine a lot of dynasty owners who originally drafted Drake in 2016 still have him on their dynasty roster but, if so, it’s been a wild ride.
From his original positional ADP in the 50s, he dropped down to 67 after being buried on the depth chart in Miami. When he finally got an opportunity, it rose to the RB2/3 level where he currently sits at 24. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, that equates to a mid-first-round pick in rookie drafts. You may want to at least wait until Drake signs somewhere. But whether it is staying in Arizona, or becoming a featured back on another team, it might be worth it.
Gallup-ing Along
Am I the only one on here who thinks Cooper leaving might be bad for Gallup?
If Coop is gone and there isn’t another alpha WR threat in Dallas, it’s a sell window to all the Michael Gallup WR1 truthers IMO. pic.twitter.com/S1Qko1SsDG
— Michael (@MiKeMeUpP) March 7, 2020
I’ll be honest and say I was surprised at Michael Gallup’s fantasy production. After turning in his first 1,000-yard season last year, Gallup finished as a top-25 fantasy receiver, all while Amari Cooper lined up across from him, turning in his own 1,000-yard season and a top-12 fantasy season. But as the tweet mentions above, it remains to be seen if Gallup can be productive without Cooper drawing attention away.
Dynasty Impact: Gallup currently sits at 22nd in our positional dynasty rankings which is the highest he’s ever been. But no matter what happens this off-season with pending free agent Cooper, Gallup’s value is sure to change. He’ll either be the top dog in the Dallas passing game and see his ranking go up. Or, if Cooper stays in Dallas, it’s possible Gallup’s value goes down after being confirmed as the second banana for the foreseeable future. Either way, Gallup is nothing more than a hold for now.
Half Glass Fuller
Time to TRADE for in #Dynasty
Will Fuller 👀
• 2nd year coming off ACL
• 66.7 or ⬆️ catch rates vs. Man/Zone
• 100.5 QBR or ⬆️ vs. Man/Zone
—————————————————• HOU can cut Stills for 0️⃣ dead cap & save 7 mil
• Stills OFF the field:
Fuller’s Tg share: 8.9% —> 19.6% pic.twitter.com/2DmPcGQyoZ— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 5, 2020
For a receiver who has yet to turn in a single 1,000-yard season, Will Fuller sure is generating a lot of hype. Granted, injuries have largely contributed to that with Fuller missing 22 games over his four-year career. But that hasn’t stopped dynasty players using Fuller’s first-round pick pedigree and career 14 yards-per-reception average from ranking Fuller high on dynasty rankings. Then you see tweets like the one above and it sends the hype into overdrive.
Dynasty Impact: Unlike Michael Gallup above, Fuller’s value is not nearly as high which leaves a lot of room for improvement. He currently ranked 40th in our dynasty receiver rankings but is entering just his age-26 season while standing to gain a ton of volume with more opportunities. Let’s also not forget that he’s tied to stud quarterback Deshaun Watson who isn’t going anywhere. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, you could potentially acquire Fuller for your dynasty team by swapping him with Sony Michel. In cases such as that, Fuller is the easy choice.
Ace in the Mecole
Mecole Hardman and Saquon Barkley were the only ball carriers to have TWO plays rank top-10 in maximum speed for 2019 per @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/M91uSI5xJn
— BTSC Steelers (@katemagdziuk) March 6, 2020
Of the seven receivers taken in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Mecole Hardman had, perhaps, the least optimistic outlook initially. Sure, he was drafted by a high-powered offense but he also seemingly had the skill set of a player already ahead of him on the depth chart. His 4.33 speed and playmaking ability is exactly what Tyreek Hill offers and Hill had missed all of one game going into the 2019 season. But then 2019 started and Hill missed significant time due to injury for the first time. A shoulder injury cost Hill a month which allowed Hardman to step right in. In those four games, Hardman had 60 yards receiving in three of them and scored in two of them.
Dynasty Impact: Hardman currently ranks as our 38th-ranked receiver which would be good for your WR3/4. He finished his rookie season as a top-30 receiver in scoring – not bad for a player who saw only 41 targets. However, that kind of efficiency is not sustainable and shouldn’t be expected at least as long as Hill is around. If you have another dynasty team that is willing to value Hardman at those prices above, I would sell.
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