2020 Dynasty Capsule: Atlanta Falcons

Jeff Smith

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The Falcons finished 7-9 for the second straight season. They improved over the second half, going 6-2 after their week nine bye, and enjoyed a hard-fought victory over the staunch Super Bowl-contending San Francisco 49ers in mid-December. There are significant question marks for 2020 with an aging Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman set to return and the impending free agency of Austin Hooper. Overall, however, there are still plenty of desirable dynasty pieces to covet in Atlanta.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan (ADP: 143.00, QB16)

Age: 34

The veteran signal caller quietly finished as the QB7 in 2019 despite playing in just 15 games. It was Ryan’s seventh QB1 finish in his 12 years in the league.

The Boston College grad was a model of consistency last season, registering QB1 finishes in 11-of-15 games. While he will be 35 entering the 2020 season, there is still some value to be had with Ryan. Currently going off the board as the 16th quarterback, he is all but certain to reward owners with a solid return on their investment.

The emergence of Calvin Ridley combined with the annual dominance displayed by Jones gives us no reason to think there are any signs of slowing down, at least not from a weapons standpoint. The return of talented tight end Hooper would further bolster Ryan’s outlook on the season.

Using DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder, it appears that a first round pick can be had in return if you are ready to cut bait before the season starts. There is more than one instance of Ryan being swapped for a 2020 first rounder.

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Moreover, DLF’s new Yearly Player Data App shows that the long-time Falcons signal caller has outperformed others drafted in the same range three of the last four years and beyond.

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Matt Schaub (ADP: N/A)

Age: 38

The aging quarterback is signed through next season in Atlanta. He performed well in his one start in 2019. Despite his solid performance in that game against the Seattle Seahawks, there is no reason to roster him in any format. The only time he sees the field is when Ryan suffers an injury. At that point you would likely be able to grab him off of the wire if you were desperate.

Danny Etling (Reserve/Future)

Age: 25

The Patriots’ 2018 seventh-round draft pick has not seen the field for – even a snap – in his two years in the league. The LSU grad (and Purdue transfer) is also set to be a free agent in 2020. There is zero value here.

Kurt Benkert (Reserve/Future)

Age: 24

Just like Etling, Benkert has not seen the field once in his two seasons in the league. He was also a transfer in college, going from East Carolina to Virginia before the 2016 season. Zero value again. It is worth noting that he is the only other quarterback besides Ryan and Schaub signed for the 2020 season.

Matt Simms (Reserve/Future)

Age: 31

The Tennessee grad signed a two-year deal with the Falcons in 2017 that expires at the end of the league year. He has not seen one snap in the NFL since 2014. Leave him on the scrap heap like the Falcons will.

Running Back

Devonta Freeman (ADP: 97.5, RB32)

Age: 27

The veteran running back will be 28 when the 2020 season kicks off. Freeman did manage an RB18 finish on the season despite playing in just 14 games.

The Florida State alum outplayed his RB23 ADP from August of 2019, but owners still were likely disappointed with the finish. Over sixteen percent of his total points came in week 16 against the Jaguars. The 3.6 yards per attempt also left a lot to be desired.

The offensive line was decimated with injuries, but we still have to be concerned with the age here. Also concerning is the fact that Freeman has only played 16 games in just two-of-six seasons.

The presence of Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison also must be factored in. Now may be the time to sell. A look at the Dynasty Trade Analyzer shows that an early to mid-second round pick in 2020 could be had in return. With a solid class available in rookie drafts this season, this may be the play.

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Ito Smith (ADP: 215.50, RB67)

Age: 24

A neck injury in week seven cut the sophomore campaign short for the Southern Miss grad. Even before the injury, Smith had just 22 carries for 106 yards and one touchdown. A season high 11 touches were seen in week five against the Houston Texans, and he did average a healthy 4.8 yards per attempt. Smith is worth a stash unless the Falcons select a running back with one of their seven draft picks.

Brian Hill (ADP: 236.17, RB83)

Age: 24

Hill has little dynasty value and even less if Atlanta does go with a rusher in April. Some early mocks have the Falcons targeting D’Andre Swift from just down the road in Athens.

The young back out of Wyoming was not able to take advantage of being the lead back when Freeman and Smith went down with injuries in 2019. Hill saw a featured role in week ten and week 11. However, he was not able to earn more playing time with the opportunity.

Using the splits tool soon to be available from DLF, we see that Hill averaged just over a half a point more per game despite the increased usage.

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Qadree Ollison (ADP: 239.67, RB88)

Age: 24

While the former Pittsburgh Panther did score four touchdowns during his rookie campaign, that was about all that is worth noting. He managed just 50 yards on 22 carries, “good” for 2.3 yards per attempt.

With a muddied backfield and another back likely on the way, Ollison has minimal dynasty value. The fact that he is being drafted at all is an indicator of just how deep some dynasty leagues are.

On a positive note, the big back did have bookend 1,000-yard seasons his freshman and senior seasons in the Steel City. Those seasons also saw him cross the goal line 11 times, proving that he does have a nose for the end zone.

Kenjon Barner (ADP: N/A)

Age: 30

Signed in March of 2019, the journeyman back was brought in primarily as a returner. He’s a free agent entering the 2020 season and will be 31 years old. There is nothing to see here.

Craig Reynolds (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

Signed off of the Redskins’ practice squad, Reynolds saw only 28 snaps in 2019, all on special teams. The Division II rookie out of Kutztown University did score 15 touchdowns his senior season but is also a free agent entering 2020. The feel-good story can be safely left on waivers.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones (ADP: 26.83, WR14)

Age: 30

The man just keeps getting it done. Jones finished as a WR1 for the sixth straight season, ending 2019 as the WR2. This was also the seventh WR1 finish in nine years in the league. The other two seasons, he missed significant time due to injury.

This is the one case where age can be thrown out the window. At an ADP of WR14, this screams value. Even if you just draft Julio only to trade him late in the season to a contender, you can reap the benefit of some serious consistency early on and flip him for future assets later on.

While someone like Stefon Diggs is four years younger, he is a much more volatile asset. There is no reason to believe that the Alabama grad will not post his seventh straight WR1 finish, especially if the Falcons do not fix their defense and play from behind most weeks. Using the ADP comparison data from DLF, we can see a steady decline is his perceived value. This may be a mistake on dynasty owners part.

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Calvin Ridley (ADP: 39.17, WR18)

Age: 25

The second year wideout had his season cut short in week 14 when he suffered a scary abdominal injury against the Carolina Panthers. The Alabama alum still has 17 touchdowns in his first 29 games and is rightfully being drafted as the WR18. Ridley also surpassed his yardage total from his rookie season despite playing in three less games.

To put the touchdown numbers in perspective, the stud wideout is tied for seventh most all time over the first two years of a career since 1950. The 17 touchdowns are just one less than the 18 teammate Julio Jones scored over his first two seasons as a receiver (data courtesy of Pro Football Reference). Expect Ridley to continue to be dominate for years to come. The only concern here would be Matt Ryan’s age and who may play quarterback for the Falcons going forward.

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Russell Gage (ADP: 216.50, WR88)

Age: 24

The second year wideout had a solid campaign in 2019 after catching just six balls in 2018. He had 49 catches on 74 targets for 446 yards and a touchdown, generating some excitement at times this year.

The former LSU Tiger is cetainly worthy of a roster spot in most formats at just only 24 years old. If Hooper decides to depart from Atlanta, Gage may have even more upside.

Using the soon to be available splits tool again, we see that the young receiver thrived without the tight end on the field, checking in as a WR23. Monitor Hooper’s off-season destination and adjust accordingly, especially if the Falcons do not replace the tight end with a quality player.

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Justin Hardy (ADP: N/A)

Age: 28

The soon-to-be free agent has never had more than 21 receptions in a season in his five years in the league. An interesting prospect out of East Carolina, Hardy’s game never really translated to the NFL. Perhaps being buried behind Julio Jones, Roddy White, Mohamed Sanu, and Calvin Ridley had something to do with it. A change of scenery may change the value some, but the vet is still not worth owning except in the deepest of formats.

Olamide Zaccheaus (ADP: N/A)

Age: 22

The speedster from Virginia made some noise with a 93-yard touchdown in week 14, but still only saw 87 offensive snaps during his rookie campaign.

At just 22 years old, Zaccheaus is an intriguing prospect. The smallish wideout did go over 1,000 yards his senior season in Charlottesville and produced nine touchdowns to boot. Similar in stature to DeSean Jackson, his 40 time (4.49) was just .14 seconds slower than Jackson’s 4.35. There are certainly worse dart throws to own in dynasty.

Christian Blake (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

Blake saw most of his action on special teams after finally getting on the field in week eight. In all, he saw just 24 targets and caught 11 of them (45.8 percent). His college career as a Huskie ended with under 1,000 yards over four years. There is nothing here to spark any type of fire and he is best left on the wire.

Brandon Powell (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

The Florida Gator grad never saw the field in 2019 and has just 11 career catches spanning two seasons. His college stats leave a lot to be desired as well. Powell is under contract for 2020 but can be cut with zero cap implications and a savings of $660,000 (data courtesy of Over the Cap). Look for Atlanta to move on or possibly sign him to the practice squad.

Devin Gray (Reserve/Futures)

Age: 24

Gray was signed to the practice squad in 2019 but has not seen an NFL field in two seasons since playing just two years at the University of Cincinnati. The practice squad is his likely 2020 scenario as well. He did not play football his freshman or sophomore year. There is no dynasty appeal here.

Tight End

Austin Hooper (ADP: 70.00, TE6)

Age: 25

The exciting young soon-to-be free agent finished 2019 as the TE6 despite playing in just 13 games. Hooper actually finished third among the position with 14.75 points per game in PPR formats. The former Stanford Cardinal fell just short of 100 targets with 97.

His landing spot will obviously be a key factor in determining his dynasty value. There are rumors that the Chicago Bears could be a destination. With Matt Nagy running an Andy Reid type offense, look for Hooper to fill a Travis Kelce role if he indeed winds up in the Windy City.

DLF’s new Yearly Player Data App, among other capabilities as noted above, also allows you to see the points per opportunity any player may have had during any given season. Here, it reveals that Hooper is right there with the “big 3” tight ends in recent years. His current ADP feels about right, but he is certainly one that could break out and outperform his draft status.

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Luke Stocker (ADP: N/A)

Age: 31

The fact that Stocker is the only tight end besides Hooper that saw significant snaps on offense tells you all you need to know about the state of the position in Atlanta. The veteran tight end only saw 14 targets despite playing 57.1 percent of the snaps. Never surpassing 16 receptions in a season over his long career, the former Tennessee Volunteer is primarily used as a blocker and has no significant value in any format.

Jaeden Graham (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The rookie out of Yale only saw action because of the injury to Hooper. His senior season in the Ivy League saw him catch just 26 balls and score four touchdowns. So long as Hooper is around, there is very little appeal here from a dynasty standpoint.

Carson Meier (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The Oklahoma Sooner alum only saw action in week 13 when Hooper was out with an injury and did not record a counting stat. Likewise, he did not record a stat in college until his senior season in Norman. As with Graham, there is no appeal here from a dynasty perspective unless Atlanta lets Hooper walk and does not replace him with a quality player.

jeff smith