Devy Stock Market: Senior-itis
Throughout the college football season, whenever I am discussing college football seniors, I talk about how these players often get overlooked or undervalued in the devy community. This year we saw a larger than expected number of players returning to school for their senior season.
In this article, I break down the devy value of players who will be playing their senior season in 2020 instead of their NFL rookie season.
Kylin Hill, RB Mississippi State
Kylin Hill finished the 2019 season 17th in the nation in carries and rushing yards with 242 carries for 1,350 rushing yards along with 11 total touchdowns. He returns to school for the 2020 season with a new head coach in Mike Leach.
The Leach offense heavily relied on running back Max Borghi the last two seasons with 139 receptions. Hill may see that sort of involvement in the passing game. Staying for his senior season may dampen some excitement around Hill, but I think that the Leach offense should more than make up for the year wait with raising his draft stock.
Devonta Smith, WR Alabama
Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III both left early for the NFL draft. Smith will likely be the biggest benefactor. As one of four future NFL wide receivers for Alabama, he led the team in receiving yards with 1,256 receiving yards and 14 receiving touchdowns. He was likely the one non-owned in devy leagues, out of the group of Smith, Jeudy, Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle.
With his return, devy owners will remedy Smith being non-owned early in off-season devy drafts.
Nico Collins, WR Michigan
Collins has spent his college career attached to the less than stellar Shea Patterson at quarterback. In 2020, he returns to Michigan, but will be playing with a new quarterback after Patterson has graduated. He has put together a pair of solid seasons with lower volume, only catching 37 and 38 the last two seasons.
He’s done a lot with that volume, however, averaging 16.6 and 19.7 yards per catch with 13 total touchdowns over those two seasons. He will also lose target competition with Donovan Peoples-Jones heading to the NFL and Tarik Black in the transfer portal.
He will be one of my top targets this off-season, particularly while he gets overlooked for being a senior. What will likely be an upgrade at quarterback should help Collins put up big numbers in 2020.
Ian Book, QB Notre Dame
Book showed some flashes of great play in his junior season in 2019. He had three games with five passing touchdowns, two games with four passing touchdowns, averaging 268 passing yards per game over those five games. He’s averaged 8.6 AY/A in each of the last two seasons, a little lower than the 9.0 AY/A threshold that I look for to consider a college quarterback worthy of a devy pick.
College football has a lot of talent at the quarterback position right now, and Book stands out as one of the top two returning senior quarterbacks.
Tylan Wallace, WR Oklahoma State
This is one of the biggest surprises to return to college football for the 2020 season. The torn ACL that ended his season and its impact on what would’ve been combine/pre-draft workout time likely played a role in him returning for his senior season.
I don’t think many in the devy community are bumping him down didn’t to the injury, though. He has been a top producer in college football the last two seasons, averaging 108 receiving yards per game with 21 total touchdowns over 22 games. He put up those numbers with two different quarterbacks, and while he may miss the start of the college football season, a strong finish could put him in position to be a first round pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
Sam Ehlinger, QB Texas
Ehlinger has been one of the most productive players in college football the last two seasons, with 6,955 passing yards with an AY/A of 8.4 and 8.5 respectively. I did expect a little bit more progression from the 6’3” 230-pound junior, but returning for his senior season will give him the opportunity to show he is an NFL quarterback and not just a “Tim Tebow” type with 1145 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons.
I do think he will show more arm talent in 2020 and has day two pick potential in the 2021 NFL draft. He will likely get overlooked in most superflex devy leagues this off-season, but I think he should be considered around the 36-48 overall range of devy players in that format.
Trey Sermon, RB Oklahoma
Sermon battled injuries in his junior season, logging zero games with more than five carries after October 5th. He had an impressive sophomore season in 2018 with 1,128 total yards from scrimmage with 13 rushing touchdowns.
He returns to school in 2020 hoping that his senior season looks more like his 2018 than his 2019. With only 385 yards rushing in 2019 and his senior status, it is unlikely he will be considered in devy startups outside of deeper leagues (50+ players drafted). In existing leagues, I’d be testing the waters to see how much the return to school and 2019 production has decreased his value.
Travis Etienne, RB Clemson
Etienne was the most alarming of all players returning to school for the 2020 season. He had over 1,600 rushing yards and 49 total touchdowns in the last two seasons. Along with a career 7.8 yards per carry, I thought that would make him a lock to be a late 1st round/early 2nd round NFL draft pick. Most players who are given that draft grade don’t return, especially running backs.
His return makes me question whether the NFL scouting complex told him he’d be more of a late day two pick. There is a chance the NFL doesn’t like him as much as the devy and draft community do. Etienne is currently ranked 3rd in DLF devy rankings. I will be shopping him this off-season, attempting to get DLF’s #1-ranked devy in Ja’Marr Chase or go lower in the rankings to Seth Williams or Waddle with a nice piece on top.
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