2020 Dynasty Capsule: Los Angeles Rams

Michael Liu

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Jared Goff (ADP: 154, QB18)

Age: 25

The fall from grace for Goff and the Rams as a whole was a dramatic one this year. The Rams went from one of the best offenses in the league to a middle of the road team. If we dig a bit into the numbers though, his ADP drop is a bit of an overreaction. From a yardage perspective, he was nearly identical to last year with 4,639 yards passing (4,688 yards in 2018). The main difference was touchdowns. He only threw 22 versus 32 in 2018. Despite all of this, Goff still finished as the QB13.

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He’s definitely a bit more boom-bust than you would like from your starting quarterback, but it still doesn’t justify the plumet in his price considering where Aaron Rodgers is currently ranked at QB9. The table below shows the weekly positional scoring breakdown for Rodgers versus Goff. Not only did Rodgers have fewer top ten finishes, he lost you the week more frequently by finishing worse than QB20 half the time.

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I was not a big supporter of Goff coming into the season, but at his deflated price I’m a buyer. I’m definitely more interested in Goff at QB18 than Rodgers at QB9. I’m not very hopeful on the Rams improving their offensive line in the near term due to depleted resources, but Goff is still only 25 years old. He has a long career ahead of him and I’d be fine with him as my QB2 in superflex formats.

Running Back

Todd Gurley (ADP: 41, RB16)

Age: 25

If you thought Goff’s ADP chart was bad, just wait until you get a load of Gurley’s.

There hasn’t been a more dramatic fall in one year than the one for Gurley. He was the heavy favorite for 1.01 in dynasty startups and is now outside of the top-12 running backs. I’ve already alluded to the offensive struggles for the Rams, but Gurley also has to deal with an arthritic knee issue which first reared its ugly head toward the end of 2018. At just 25 years old, it seems the knee injuries he suffered in college have come back in an ugly way. word image 15

He still finished as the RB14 overall in PPR scoring, but his ADP likely reflects concerns regarding future workload. His 2019 performance was also buoyed by hitting on the positive side of touchdown variance in a big way. The potential for negative touchdown regression is a major red flag going forward, a topic I cover in depth in my TD Regression Deep Dive Series.

Malcolm Brown (ADP: 190.83, RB60)

Age: 26

Brown’s ADP chart is almost the inverse of Gurley’s, which makes sense in light of mass panic regarding the latter’s knees. Remember when the entire fantasy world panicked and anointed Brown the goal-line back after one week where he vultured some touchdowns? Good times. Gentle reminder to not overreact folks.

As of right now, Brown is nothing more than a secondary handcuff and the third-best running back on the Rams. He holds little to no standalone value. If anyone in your league believes otherwise, sell him for anything you can get.

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Darrell Henderson (ADP: 111.67, RB34)

Age: 23

The Henderson off-season hype train was only matched by the Darwin Thompson pre-season one. It was truly a sight to behold. Even yours truly was not immune. We had good reason to buy into him. Prolific collegiate production, speed and the perfect situation with Gurley’s knee issues. At the height of his powers, Henderson reached an ADP of 69 – nice. In other words, he was being drafted in the 6th round of dynasty start-ups, which is completely wild now looking back as he was essentially a hand-cuff.

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It seemed as though he was primed to be the heir apparent in this high-powered Rams offense. Alas, it was not meant to be. The scare around Gurley’s knee was clearly overblown. I haven’t completely given up hope, though. If Henderson can be had for cheap, I’m still willing to throw the dart.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp (ADP: 31.17, WR17)

Age: 26

I faded Kupp this year because of how late he suffered his ACL injury last season. It looked like the biggest mistake ever through the first eight weeks. He went on an absolute tear as the overall WR2. Folks were speaking about him as a top five dynasty wide receiver.

There was another half of the season to be played, however. From week nine on, he finished as the WR30. It really was a story told in two parts for Kupp, whose production took an absolute  nosedive, leaving us with more questions than answers on what to do with him heading into the off-season.

Despite the second half drop-off, he still finished in the top five at the position, which makes his WR17 ADP a bit puzzling to me. I imagine it’s because people think the second half of the season was a better indicator of things to come.

I’m not the biggest fan of the Rams offense going forward, but even I’m a buyer at these prices.

We’ve seen Kupp’s upside. The juice is more than worth the squeeze.

Robert Woods (ADP: 59.33, WR30)

Age: 27

Woods is one of the most criminally undervalued wide receivers in the league. As I outlined in my TD Regression Deep Dive, he still managed a WR14 finish in PPR scoring despite being hit with negative touchdown variance this year. With some positive regression, he could easily jump into WR1 status in 2020. He is the most versatile wide receiver on his teams’ roster.

As we can see from the DLF Analytics Tool, Woods’ production seems to always exceed perceived value by a wide margin. When this scenario happens, I am always looking to buy. Despite finishing as a WR1 on a points-per-game basis, his current ADP isn’t even in the top-24. I’m sending offers out for Woods on every single contending roster I have and you should do the same.

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Brandin Cooks (ADP: 78, WR38)

Age: 26

It was a brutal year for Cooks who is typically the model for consistency. This was the first year he failed to cross the 1,000 yard receiving mark since his rookie season. Part of his downfall is tied to the overall decline of the Rams, but Cooks also missed a couple of games due to concussion. He clearly isn’t the same alpha as years past.

The Rams aren’t running as many three wide receiver sets as prior years, either. This limits some of his previously enjoyed opportunity. It’s not all bad news though, as Cooks is signed on with the Rams until 2023. He carries a dead cap of $21.8 million and $13 million for the next two years, so assuming he can stay healthy, there is stability.

There are a lot more questions than answers when it comes to Cooks, but at his current price I’m buying. Based on the Dynasty Trade Analyzer, his value is approximately equal to the 2020 2.04. We’ve seen his ceiling; it’s hard to find similar upside at his price. What’s funny is that I was a seller on the entire Rams offense coming into 2019, and now I’ve pulled a complete 180. Dynasty is all about timing though. I encourage you to take advantage of the mass panic.

Josh Reynolds (ADP: 194, WR80)

Age: 24

Reynolds has shown flashes in the limited opportunity he’s received, but is far from a reliable asset. That fact is reflected in his current price. If I had more confidence in the Rams offense recovering, I’d be all over him as a cheap dynasty buy-and-stash. His upside, though, is all but non-existent in the current situation. He is still young and worth the speculative add, but I don’t think he’ll attain any true value until h lands on another team with more opportunity.

Tight End

Gerald Everett (ADP: 152.33, TE20)

Age: 25

Everett was well on his way to a breakout season before suffering an injury in week 13. He did return in week 16, but was largely ineffective as he was clearly not operating at full strength. Everett profiles out as the typical tight end I like to target. Extremely athletic with great college production, as you can see in his Mock Draftable snapshot below.

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He’s part of the reason why I’m hesitant to go all-in on Tyler Higbee. I’m sure we’ll get a glimpse into how the Rams plan to use the two play makers, but fortunately you can acquire both at their current discounted prices. Whoever wins the lead role is going to be a productive fantasy asset at a position with limited choices. My plan for now is to throw a dart at both and see which one sticks. Everett would be my top priority, though, given how cheap he is.

Some recent examples of trades from the Dynasty Trade Finder shows Everett being used a couple different ways, primarily as a toss-in for combo packages.

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Tyler Higbee (ADP: 119.17, TE14)

Age: 27

Higbee was a league winner in 2019 in every sense of the term. He logged the best five game stretch by any tight end in history with 100 yards in four of five and 84 yards and a touchdown in the other. He finished as the TE8 despite being only being handed the reigns in week 13 after Everett was injured. His ADP shows a corresponding uptick. word image 21

I’m not sure how repeatable his performance is given Everett should return and is the superior athlete.

Also, four of the five games were against three of the worst ranked teams at defending the tight end position: the Cardinals (twice), Cowboys and Seahawks.

Although the Rams showed their commitment by signing him to an extension, that was prior to Everett’s injury. It may have been to solidify his role as a blocker. As I mentioned above, Everett is still the cheaper option, as you can see in some of the latest trades for Higbee (definitely a lot pricier when trading for him, but still worth the investment from an ADP perspective).

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