Targeting Players to Win Now: Counterproductive to the Dynasty Format?

John DiBari

If you’ve played in dynasty leagues for some time, odds are you’ve faced some tough decisions, especially towards the end of every season. Some of the most significant decisions you will ever make present themselves as the fantasy playoffs draw near.

This is especially true when you’re a contender or cellar dweller. Do you push ahead with the squad that got you there as constructed? Do you move some of your depth and acquire picks so you can reload on rookies? Do you trade away your picks and stock up on useful talent to bolster your roster for the playoff push? There is no right answer, and I’ve seen teams win (and lose) while implementing each technique.

It Starts with the Start-Up

I’ve been fortunate enough to build successful teams via start-up drafts. As a result, I haven’t had to retool much once the playoffs are on the horizon. However, over the last few years, I’ve kicked the tires on different techniques. As a writer and longtime dynasty owner with multiple leagues, it has created new challenges and gives me something to write about from time to time.

Overall, I haven’t been pleased with my short-term results moving picks for players.

In 2018, I traded three first-round picks for Aaron Jones and OJ Howard. Howard played one game before being placed on IR, and Jones had a few big games before also finding himself on IR as well. I ended up with an early playoff exit as a result. The trade looked better last year. Jones’ RB4 finish carried my team to second place, despite Howard being a low-end TE2.

I wouldn’t call that trade a “win” just yet, but I felt good about it at the time and still like it today. I’m a huge Jones fan and still believe in Howard’s talent. However, I admittedly wouldn’t have made that move had I known Bruce Arians was going to end up as Tampa Bay’s head coach.

Another set of moves I made in a superflex best ball league where I was the reigning champion brought me Philip Rivers and Tom Brady (among other pieces) for several future picks. I ended up finishing in second place, but I’ve got to say with both quarterbacks entering free agency in their age 38 and 43 seasons I think I made a big mistake. How this off-season shakes out will significantly impact how those “win now” deals look going forward. The chart below illustrates these quarterbacks’ ADP over time.

adp over time brady rivers screenshot

Age Isn’t Just a Number

Dynasty leagues can be ageist, and for good reason. In the first trade I mentioned, I acquired two players who will both be top-24 this season and may have another five to seven years of NFL production in them. It was worth it to give up the draft picks to obtain them. Even if they didn’t pan out, between their ages and name value, I could still flip them for value at some point. Young productive players tend to keep producing, and if not, they tend to keep their name value for a while (looking at you, Doug Martin).

On the other hand, looking at the DLF Trade Finder, you’ll see that Brady and Rivers are both typically netting mid-to-late round picks in return. Barring some unforeseen ideal landing spots impacted by rookies and free agency, neither are likely to net a higher return than that as they both push for their AARP memberships.

Are Picks more than Lottery Tickets?

Although it’s been shown by Jacob Rickrode repeatedly on twitter and through his work at Rotoviz, the bust rate of rookie picks is much higher than most people realize. Typically, most draft classes only have ten players who go on to have multiple useful fantasy seasons (two or more years finishing within the top-12 at quarterback or tight end, and a top-24 finish at running back or wide receiver).

Rookie draft pick fever sweeps through leagues during every off-season. Drafting is fun. Acquiring shiny new toys is fun. Hitting on rookie sleepers is fun. Seeing “your guys” hit is fun. Given the statistical lack of success, most dynasty owners have at drafting (combined with the false belief that they’re better at drafting than they are), a small window opens, allowing you to capitalize on this phenomenon every year. If you’re inclined to do so, someone is almost always willing to pay for your rookie picks, especially on draft day.

In my experience, selling my future to win now has never worked out. It might be one of my weak spots as a dynasty owner, and I’ll either avoid the practice altogether or find a way to get better at it. Obviously it works for some people, so I wouldn’t advise you against it, but I certainly suggest that you steer clear of veterans approaching their 30th birthday.

If you’re going to sell off your future picks, I advise doing so only for younger players who have three or more useful seasons in them, particularly those who’ve flashed the upside and potential to continue to produce. These players retain trade value and make for a safer transaction in the long run.

Don’t overestimate your ability to hit on your draft picks. If you can get a young, proven player for a random dart-throw of a draft pick, it might be worth pulling the trigger.

john dibari