Live from the NFL Draft Combine: 2020 Dynasty Rookie Draft Tiers
Editor’s Note: Jeff Haverlack and Ryan McDowell are attending this year’s NFL Draft Scouting Combine to give you the best information possible for your rookie drafts.
For many, the NFL Combine is the unofficial kick-off of the new dynasty season, a time when the declared rookies take the field in an attempt to raise their draft stock ahead of the NFL Draft in April.
For dynasty leaguers, there is no more enjoyable time than holding rookie draft picks with the attached anticipation of new players joining their rosters, perhaps completing the puzzle to winning the elusive dynasty championship. Whether last season was an unmitigated disaster or you secured a repeat title, the NFL Combine and NFL Draft are likely only behind your league’s rookie draft in anticipation and excitement. It’s something we all share.
You, the dynasty coach, know all too well just how important it is to ‘win’ your draft. In a game where a single player can make the difference between relevance and also-ran status, you can’t afford to leave your selection to a strategy of ‘dumb luck’ or a misinformed pick. At the very least, you need to understand each rookie’s value proposition within his class into your own team’s needs. Anything less and you might as well pull names out of a hat.
Those playing the dynasty format for any length of time understand the game has changed dramatically even over the past few years, let alone the last decade. Metrics, graphs, trends, new methods of ranking and ridiculously complex forms of analytics now have the ability to help you make more informed choices, or, for many, muddy the waters for your research. No single metric, ranking or set of analytics can guarantee success of your draft selections. To wit, NFL front offices swing and miss all too often and no group of individuals have more at stake or more experts at their disposal to maximize the success quotient of each selection. If the front office for your favorite team can’t maintain a high degree of success, how are home-gamers like you supposed to?
Enter DLF!
I say this every year and I’ll say it again here. DLF was the first mainstream dynasty-centric site and we remain the largest today. Founded in 2006, we are focused on only one thing – helping you win your dynasty league through acquisition and retention of the best and brightest writers, podcasters, analysts and developers in the game churning out professional articles, tools and content every day. Seven days a week. 52 weeks a year. Regardless of how you play, metrics you subscribe to or tools you prefer, DLF caters to you in some fashion.
You have a choice as to who to follow for your fantasy news and analysis and we work hard for, and appreciate, your trust. I only use DLF for my own dynasty needs and I haven’t experienced a year where I’ve paid out more than I’ve won in over a decade. I know we can have the same impact for you as well.
But enough of the sales pitch, I want to talk about tiers. Specifically, rookie tiers.
ROOKIE TIERS
Tiers have obviously been around for a long time, though it seems some have cast aside their usage in favor of other draft and/or production-based metrics. That could be a big mistake. Every dynasty coach needs to understand how to tier each incoming rookie class toward determining the depth-of-class and selection value. It is through this understanding that you will be able to handicap your opportunity when holding rookie draft selections or in acquiring them. Sell out of known-production players to double-down into a weak draft and you may negatively impact your team for years to come. Skillfully leverage your roster depth and draft capital to move up or acquire additional selections into a strong draft and you seize the opportunity to be your league’s next dynasty team. After all, isn’t that what it’s all about?
In short, rookie draft tiers make up the talent stratification of each year’s draft and understanding this stratification will help you to ascertain the wheelhouse and depth of each class and its potential to bear fruit.
The 2020 Dynasty Rookie Draft
The 2020 NFL Draft has been highly anticipated from early 2019 and, for some, even since 2018. I was monitoring many of the sophomores in 2018 and saw the writing on the wall. 2020 was looking like a perfect-storm of talent across the wide receiver and running back positions but, also, with good talent at quarterback and tight ends as well. As it turns out, the quarterback and tight end positions did end up somewhat pedestrian but with enough intrigue to deepen the class overall and provide second and third round fantasy opportunities.
But when looking at my assigned tiers here in the shadow of the NFL Combine, the 2020 NFL Rookie Draft appears to be the deepest we’ve seen in, arguably, two decades – or more.
It’s not uncommon to have a single name in my first tier. In some years, there have been no first-tier players. On average, one or two players grace this elite tier with a similar number making up tier-two. Tier three often starts at/near selection number five (1.05) overall and, in some years, even higher.
For 12-team leagues, fantasy prospects begin to fall rapidly as we enter tiers four and below, meaning should you own draft selections after 1.08, the odds your selection will ‘hit’ in fantasy begins to decline quickly. Selections between 1.08 and 1.12 become an exercise in trying to identify and select the best talent that may not have fallen to the best drafted situation, those players who have fallen due to injury or, as is often the case, experience a poor Combine performance that affected their NFL Draft status. Any number of catalysts may impact a rookie’s overall value and cause a degradation in tier.
2020 is unlike any draft class I have covered.
Cutting to the chase, 2020’s first tier is a ridiculous class consisting of no less than five tier-one players in my mind. While my tiers and their individual players are highlighted below, let me go one step beyond my assessment of this year’s first tier. Without much effort, and this could prove out following my complete Combine analysis, 2020’s first tier could easily reach seven players and, with a certain set of circumstances, swell to, potentially, nine players. Before allowing myself to follow through with this, let me say that every fiber of my being resists this potential assessment scenario as I believe “elite” players, those who occupy my first tier, by their very nature are rare specimens. Nine potential tier-one players could be somewhat of a violation of this belief.
…unless, of course, this draft class does possess nine elite players.
In the end, my expectation is for my first tier to remain at five players but for my second tier to grow to cover the nine, still a VERY noteworthy draft class. Should that occur, that may take the third and fourth tiers into the teen selections which, frankly, is unheard of.
Excited yet? Tired of my rambling and just want me to get to the tiers and the players within? Let’s do just that.
Tier One
D’Andre Swift, RB
Jerry Jeudy, WR
CeeDee Lamb, WR
JK Dobbins, RB
Jonathan Taylor, RB
These tier one players make up my “Easy-Five” as I call them. In fact, should Clemson running back Travis Etienne have declared for the draft rather than return to school, he would have been my 1.06 and been part of this year’s “Easy-Six.” What this means is that holding any of these top five selections means you are holding a golden ticket.
The quality within this tier is unmistakable and inarguable in my mind. The only real argument is whether one to four of the names in tier two could climb into tier one – a very real possibility for at least two of the players and not out of the question for more. The most exciting aspect to my Easy-Five is that any one of them could be the 1.01. In fact, as I write this, 1.01 through 1.04 are separated by the slimmest of margins. To me, only Jonathan Taylor doesn’t possess enough traits over the others to climb to the 1.01, though he still carries an “elite” label in my scoring. Truth be told, one of Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb are the most likely to overtake D’Andre Swift at the top of this tier, but only time will tell. I’m excited to see all the workouts in person.
As a holder of one of these selections, you will need to manage positional need if you have a particular deficit on your roster. There’s a very real chance that both Jeudy and Lamb could be off the board by selection 1.03, though I believe one will last to 1.05 as running backs still carry premium to many.
Tier Two
Tee Higgins, WR
Henry Ruggs, WR
Laviska Shenault, WR
The depth of the wide receiver class makes its case. And once again, this tier starting at selection 1.06 is a testimonial to the depth of the class overall. It’s not uncommon for this tier to begin as early as selection 1.02.
As I mentioned previously, these three receivers are extremely close to appearing in my first tier. Higgins and Ruggs are both dynamic and polished players with tremendous athletic ability. Higgins was a top recruit out of high school and really turned it on in the second half of 2019. Ruggs is a dynamic speed threat whose productivity was hurt by the sheer talent on Alabama’s offense. Both should be first round NFL selections and may climb into the first tier.
Laviska Shenault is an interesting case but probably won’t climb the ladder to the first tier due to production issues. He’s a size/hands/physicality freak who will likely have a better pro career than collegiate one, but I can’t make that move in my mind without seeing something truly special that convinces me his lack of production at Colorado was completely out of his control. I like to see special talents rise above their poor situations whenever possible.
Tier Three
Jalen Reagor, WR
Tyler Johnson, WR
Justin Jefferson, WR
Again, if you’re looking for young receiver talent, 2020 is your year. My tier three typically starts 1.04 or 1.05. The fact that tier three could start at 1.10 if one of these players moves up a tier, and possesses such quality players, presents enormous opportunity for competitive fantasy teams typically selecting at the end of the round.
All three of these receivers are tier-two capable but the quality of talent in 2020 is such that drawing the line is very difficult and all these players are a step below my second tier players. Jalen Reagor is currently a fantasy darling and the wind in his sails is blowing primarily from the dynasty community. Of these three, Reagor could find his way into the first tier with a blazing 40 time but I don’t believe he’s nearly as fast as Henry Ruggs and, like Laviska Shenault, I can’t give him a pass on production even though TCU’s quarterback play was less than ideal. His upside on my list is likely capped at tier two but I reserve the right to change my mind.
Tyler Johnson and Justin Jefferson are both fantastic talents with work to do. Johnson, especially, is very raw but truly gifted. With 2,500 yards, 25 touchdowns and dynamic ability in most phases, Johnson could flourish in time within an offense led by a capable veteran quarterback. Jefferson is more polished and LSU continues to churn out professional-quality receivers. I’m about to start calling LSU “WR-U.”
It would be all too easy to extend this tier through inclusion of many of the names from the tier below and, while this may still end up being the case in the coming weeks, more tape review and research needs to be completed before following through with this.
Tier Four
1.12 Cam Akers, RB
2.01 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB
2.02 Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR
2.03 Zack Moss, RB
2.04 Joe Burrow, QB
2.05 Tua Tagovailoa, QB
2.06 Denzel Mims, WR
There will be fluidity with this tier. Cam Akers is trending higher while Clyde Edwards-Helaire could drop due to size concerns. Antonio Gandy-Golden is a very gifted receiver from a small school and shares a designation of my favorite sleeper with Denzel Mims, another NFL-sized wideout climbing quickly on my list. Mims has day one potential during the Draft but won’t be selected that highly, obviously. Should he have played for Clemson, LSU or Alabama, he would likely be a household name.
Zack Moss is a do-it-all running back who could slide either way following the Combine. It’s not out of the question that Joe Burrow slips behind Tua Tagovailoa, who just received stellar medical reports on his hip during the Combine. Remember, he’s a lefty which does carry some issues in the NFL. However, here we close out the fourth tier at overall selection #18. In previous drafts, tier-four winds down near selection 1.10 to 1.12.
Tier Five
2.07 Michael Pittman, WR
2.08 Justin Herbert, QB
2.09 Jordan Love, QB
2.10 Brandon Aiyuk, WR
2.11 Brycen Hopkins, TE
2.12 Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR
3.01 Hunter Bryant, TE
3.02 Albert Okwuegbunam, TE
We all love the allure of high rookie picks found in round one and the hidden gems found in round two. And while I’m certainly in both camps as well, I have a fondness for selections in the third and fourth rounds. I routinely do some of my best drafting from these two rounds as my research tends to pay off as many other coaches lose interest and resort to blinds stabs.
The first tight ends are typically taken off the board as round two comes to a close, depending on position depth and talent of course. T.J. Hockenson in 2019 was a rare exception and there is no such talent in 2020. With a typically long integration period into the NFL, 2020’s tight ends look like late-second, or early-third, candidates.
The most intriguing players of this tier are Jordan Love, Brandon Aiyuk and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Love is climbing due to the Patrick Mahomes halo, Brandon Aiyuk measured in smaller than expected at the Combine and is a bit of a one-year wonder while Donovan Peoples-Jones, after being highly recruited (top three) out of high school at receiver, completed an unfortunate disappearing act while at Michigan. His upside is intriguing and I’m looking forward to seeing his final Combine numbers, as well as his workout in person.
Tier Six
3.03 Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB
3.04 Eno Benjamin, RB
3.05 Van Jefferson, WR
3.06 John Hightower, WR
3.07 KJ Hamler, WR
3.08 Bryan Edwards, WR
3.09 Collin Johnson, WR
3.10 Cole Kmet, TE
3.11 Michael Warren, RB
3.12 AJ Dillon, RB
4.01 Lamical Perine, RB
4.02 Adam Trautman, TE
I normally only highlight my tiers leading up and through selection #3 -, 3.12 for 12-team leagues. As I view this tier, multiple names stick out as having the potential to out-produce their ranking within my tiers.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn carries a lot of intrigue due to skill-set and I believe his NFL potential is tangible. Eno Benjamin surprised me by weighing in a full ten pounds heavier than I expected. The added weight answers my primary flag on him and more tape review is coming. Both Van Jefferson and John Hightower are good receivers, with Jefferson rising quickly on my board after tape review.
Cole Kmet at tight end is being discussed as a potential first round selection during the NFL Draft. This will surprise me should it come to pass as I did not see this level of ability during my review(s), but he’s on my list for re-review. Adam Trautman is admired within NFL circles and could be a surprise selection in the late-second or third rounds of the NFL Draft. In the right situation, he has the athleticism and dynamic to produce in a “move” role.
Summary
It’s early. It’s very early. As I write this here in Indianapolis, preparing to watch the rookies take to the field during the NFL Combine, much could change very quickly. Players are certain to move up and down these tiers in the coming weeks.
By properly assessing the tiers of the incoming rookie class you, the dynasty coach, will have more information (ammunition) at your disposal toward wisely leveraging your draft capital to maximum benefit. In years with great first and second tier depth, typically cheaper draft selections can yield production not typically found so easily at that selection. Moreover, in a year such as 2020, a rebuilding team holding the first-overall selection could consider a trade-back scenario to land multiple additional selections which could greatly out-produce the single player otherwise selected.
Conversely, competitive teams picking at the end of the first round are in position to find fantasy gold where, otherwise, much greater risk would be found. Selections 1.09 – 1.12, while still on the outside looking in to the top two tiers, will produce a high-ceiling rookie for fantasy teams not needing immediate production.
Regardless of which situation you find yourself in, 2020 is a year that can be invested in as it relates to the draft and acquisition of young players. The stars have aligned for what appears to be a very exciting incoming rookie class which could impact the fantasy landscape for years to come.
This is only the first in a series as I unwrap the 2020 rookie class. I’ll be back with an update following our time here at the NFL Combine!
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You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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