2020 Dynasty Capsule: Detroit Lions

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The Lions had a promising first four weeks. The team had it’s fans hungry and believing it had finally put it all together to make a run at the playoffs. A tough tie with the Cardinals was a gut punch, but they followed it up with victories over the Chargers and Eagles. Week four brought the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs to town. The Lions had them against the ropes before ultimately succumbing late.

They had a week five bye and then proceeded to lose 11 of their last 12 games, including the final nine in a row. They earned the overall number three pick in the draft by way of a 3-12-1 record, and many called for coach Matt Patricia to lose his job.

The maligned head coach is back for his third season and the franchise quarterback likely returns healthy. The team is short on offensive firepower overall. They do have just over $45 million in cap space and a good draft spot with some flexibility to trade down. They do have a few strong pieces now who could return value for your dynasty teams.

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford (ADP: 178.17, QB12)

Age: 32

A big reason for the late season decline was the absence of the Lions’ franchise quarterback. A back injury ultimately sidelined Stafford for the last eight games and the offense sputtered under several backup quarterbacks. Below, I compared the value of the Lions’ gunslinger against other quarterbacks in the NFC North to get an idea of where his value is at the moment.

Charts Courtesy of ADP History found on each DLF Player Page

Stafford falls right in the middle, between Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky and nearly identical to Kirk Cousins. He turns 32 shortly and has been a reliable fantasy quarterback, reliably putting up numbers to help your fantasy squad. He was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns before his injury in 2019.

Chart courtesy of Spotrac and found on each DLF player page.

Stafford is locked in at quarterback due to his salary. His contract is affordable this year but the next two years present the team an out if they chose to go another direction. The dead cap money drops rapidly after 2020, presenting an opportunity for them to move forward if the team doesn’t contend quickly.

The Lions are approaching a point where they will need to contend and maximize what they have with Stafford. The team will only go as far as their superstar quarterback leads them. They have talent at all the skill positions and could be primed to contend for a playoff spot.

Jeff Driskel (QB49)

Age: 26

When Stafford first went down and the injury was thought to not be season-ending, the veteran Driskel took the reins. He started weeks 10, 11, and 12 and had a few good moments, but as stated above all three games ended with a loss. Each week he threw for more than 200 yards, but week 12 was mired by three interceptions.

He is a solid backup, one of the better ones in the league. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent going into the 2020 season. The Lions would be wise to retain him due to his inexpensive cost and familiarity with the team’s offense.

David Blough (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The team acquired the undrafted Purdue rookie from the Browns and he was inserted into the lineup on Thanksgiving Day versus the Bears in Week 13. His debut was gutsy and gave fans hope as the Lions kept it close. He threw for nearly 300 yards and a pair of scores. Unfortunately this was his best game as the Lions limped through his final four starts with little life left in the team.

Blough could also remain the second-string quarterback if the Lions move on from Driskel. He played with a team that had given up and had many injuries hampering the roster. He is a solid backup option who could have a future in the league in this role.

RUNNING BACK

Kerryon Johnson (ADP: 60.67, RB19)

Age: 22

Johnson was drafted in the second round of the 2018 Draft. He’s had trouble staying on the field, only starting seven games in each of his first two seasons. The ADP for the young Auburn back has remained level for the most part, recently taking a bit of a dip as dynasty owners grow impatient.

The 2018 season highlighted all the young back can do. He rushed for over 600 yards at a 5.4 yards-per-carry clip and had 32 receptions. 2019 was a much different story. He rushed for 403 yards on nearly the same amount of carries and only averaged 3.6 yards a carry. On top of that he caught just ten passes. Were the poor performance due to the whole team struggling, or did Johnson’s lack of production contribute more to the overall team woes?

The glimpses of superstardom are there for the young back. He will only be 23 at the beginning of the season and still has several years under his rookie deal. He is a tough runner with good vision and great hands, but took a beating at Auburn and hasn’t been able to remain healthy to this point. If the team falters and Stafford goes, Johnson’s days in the Motor City could be numbered as well, especially if he cannot stay healthy.

Bo Scarbrough (RB71)

Age: 23

The big bruiser (6’1” 235 lbs.) was the next man up, starting five games in the absence of their young franchise back. He didn’t fare much better, rushing for 377 yards on 89 carries and only added one reception.

His game is better suited as a fill-in or for short-yardage situations. He has decent vision and can make people miss, but is not very quick or elusive. Scarbrough is signed through the end of the 2020 season.

Ty Johnson (RB74)

Age: 22

The other Johnson in the running back room for Detroit, Ty was drafted in 2019 and played in all 16 games. He carried the ball 63 times for only 273 yards and never more than 10 carries in a game. He did catch 24 passes, but they only covered 109 yards.

Johnson is a versatile fill-in, but when given the shot in his rookie season he didn’t show much. He has good speed and acceleration and better as a change of pace back. He is also under his rookie contract for at least three more years.

JD McKissic (RB91)

Age: 26

McKissic has bounced around the league a bit since 2016. He played in all 16 games for the Lions this past season. In a common theme, he was also underwhelming – carrying the ball just 38 times for 205 yards. He had 34 receptions for 233 yards. He is a restricted free agent and may have earned another season in a third-down pass-catching role.

WIDE RECEIVER

Kenny Golladay (ADP: 25, WR16)

Age: 26

Getting a valuation on the lead receiver in Detroit is incredibly tricky. Golladay is the unquestioned lead dog in an offense which is among the most throw-happy in the league. Stafford is typically top-3 in attempts when he plays the full season.

His ADP of 25 puts him in the company of Stefon Diggs and Courtland Sutton as far as value (Sutton is several years younger). Diggs is also 26 years old. They both turn 27 in November, but Golladay is going into only his fourth year in the league. Below are two trades from the DLF Trade Finder that illustrate where his value could fall.

Despite the rotating quarterback situation, he raked in 1,190 yards and 11 scores on 65 grabs but only had five games over 100 yards and six games with three or less receptions. His eleven receiving touchdowns led the NFL and surely helped salvage a few of his games. Despite what seemed like an extremely inconsistent season – touchdowns saved some games with poor receptions or yardage – he was tied for fourth among wide receivers with a 56.3% consistency rating.

Golladay is still under his rookie contract for one more season, then should command a big contract before the 2021 season. He has established himself as the WR1 in Detroit and a reliable big play target for Lions quarterbacks. The Lions will likely retain him, although the average market value could be a price the team shies away from.

Marvin Jones (ADP: 111, WR50)

Age: 29

Jones is a solid veteran receiver. He turns 30 in March and has a great presence in the locker room. He battled injuries throughout 2019, playing in 13 games and starting 11 of those. His stat line was admirable, gathering in 62 passes for 779 yards and nine touchdowns. He has always been a good WR2 with a knack for finding the end zone, giving fantasy owners good WR3 numbers fairly consistently.

He is under contract in Detroit for one more season at a $6.5 million salary with a cap hit of just over $9 million. He is locked into Detroit’s passing attack for at least one more season. The depth chart drops rapidly after him.

Danny Amendola (WR213)

Age: 34

Amendola did what he has always done in the NFL for the Lions in 2019, giving them a reliable possession receiver for moving the chains and check-downs. He played in 15 games, caught 62 passes for 678 yards, but had only one score. He was targeted 97 times with Stafford the quarterback giving him most of that attention.

He is an unrestricted free agent. The Lions could retain him at a team-friendly deal due to his age. Their receiver corps is incredibly shallow and their franchise quarterback seemed to have a good rapport with him.

Chris Lacy (N/A)

Age: 24

The undrafted second-year player from Oklahoma State was the only other wide receiver to start a game or catch a pass in 2019. No wonder the passing game struggled! Lacy caught three passes for 60 yards and was targeted ten times in seven games, two of them starts. He is still under contract and inexpensive, but holds no dynasty value at this time.

TIGHT END

TJ Hockenson (ADP: 85.0 TE9)

Age: 22

The Lions selected the talented and complete tight end from Iowa with the eighth pick in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. His value will always be tied to the other Iowa tight end drafted in the same year, Noah Fant, and currently they are nearly identical in ADP.

The rookie showed some promise but ended the season on IR, missing the final three games. He is a great combination of the blocking tight end and the tight end who can open up the middle of the field and be dangerous in the passing game. The first game was the highlight of his season. Hockenson scorched Arizona for 131 yards and a touchdown, giving us a preview of what he could do.

The rest of the season was much less productive and showed a combination of how tough the NFL game can be on tight end rookies and a system which hasn’t typically utilized a tight end as good as he can be. He only caught 26 passes over the next 11 games and only one more touchdown, eclipsing 50 yards only once in the span as well.

With all this said, he has the capability to be one of the top tight ends in the league – he can block so he will always be on the field and he is one of the purest pass-catching tight ends to enter the league in some years. The Lions need to figure out a way to involve him more in the passing game.

The down season could present a buy-low window in dynasty if someone is antsy due to the rough start of his career. Hockenson is someone I am aggressively targeting this off-season, but don’t expect much of a break in startups – he is still holding steady at TE9 in ADP.

Jesse James (ADP 239.2, TE45)

Age: 25

James started 11 games at tight end for the Lions in 2019 and is under contract through 2023, but they do have an opt out after the 2020 season. He is another tight end who blocks well and can also provide a receiving option underneath. He is more limited in the pass-catching role – not as natural, but still reliable.

He caught 16 passes in 2019 but had two seasons in Pittsburgh where he caught more than 60 passes in a season. James will stay in the Lions’ plans for the next few seasons, but as far as a dynasty asset, he isn’t worth much unless Hockenson has to miss an extended amount of time.

Isaac Nauta (N/A)

Age: 22

Nauta was the fourteenth-ranked player overall in the 2016 high-school rankings and the number-one ranked tight end, earning a five-star 0.9904 composite score per 247 Sports. Unfortunately, all the hype never materialized at Georgia and the Lions snapped him up in the seventh round of the 2019 Draft.

The athletic profile and pedigree is there. Working with an NFL staff and alongside vets like James, he could develop into an asset for the team. He is worth a deep stash on your dynasty rosters, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on Nauta developing into a viable NFL tight end.