Running Back Opportunity Share Report: Week 12
Welcome back to the Running Back Opportunity Share Report, a weekly series examining how teams are utilizing their running backs. Volume is king for running backs in fantasy football. Please refer to week five’s article for a review on the importance of volume for running backs.
What is RB Opportunity Share?
RB opportunity share is calculated by combining a player’s carries and targets and dividing them by the team’s total non-quarterback carries and running back targets.* This provides a single metric to illustrate the percentage of the team running back opportunities a player is receiving.
Bellcow Report
For this series, bellcow running backs will be defined as running backs with an opportunity share greater than or equal to 70 percent.
Blue Chips: James Robinson, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Austin Ekeler.
Committee Backfields: Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, and San Francisco 49ers.
Next Man Up: Mike Davis, Wayne Gallman, Duke Johnson, and Giovani Bernard.
Medical Tent: Todd Gurley, Josh Jacobs, Salvon Ahmed, and Myles Gaskin.
James Robinson, RB JAC
Week 12 is in the books and it’s another week with Robinson leading all running backs in opportunity share at 96.6 percent. Laviska Shenault’s lone run for six yards was the only other player in Jacksonville to get an opportunity out of the backfield this week. Robinson increased his league-leading opportunity share to 82.8 percent on the season.
He rushed 22 times for 128 yards and a score against Cleveland’s 20th-ranked rush defense according to Football Outsiders’ Rush DVOA. Robinson tallied his fifth game this season with at least five targets. He caught five of six targets for another 31 yards to help him finish as the fantasy RB3 on the week. He’s still ranked as the fantasy RB4 overall and his 26.9 fantasy points put him over 200 fantasy points for the season.
Robinson impressed from an efficiency standpoint as well scoring 4.4 fantasy points over expected (11th) and gained 2.45 scrimmage yards per play (third). He has two more decent matchups against the 16th-ranked Vikings and 17th-ranked Titans before closing out the fantasy playoffs against the formidable Ravens and Bears.
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
Cook had his worst fantasy output of the season scoring 10.2 fantasy points and was the fantasy RB25 this week. He rushed for 61 yards, was kept out of the end zone, and fumbled once on his 18 attempts. He added 21 yards through the air catching all four of his targets. Overall, a disappointing day for fantasy managers expecting more from their bellcow against Carolina’s 18th-ranked rush defense.
Cook did leave the game temporarily with an ankle injury but still managed an 88.0 percent opportunity share (second). His -2.4 fantasy points under expected and 1.12 scrimmage yards per play are only slightly below average. His inability to score a touchdown for the second time in three weeks also contributed to his poor fantasy showing.
On Tuesday, Chris Tomasson reported offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak said: “He’s just beat up. He’s been hit pretty hard the last couple of weeks taking some poundings . . . It’s at that point of the season so we’ve got to get him freshened up this week & get him back to being himself . . . He’s just kind of beat up.”
Hopefully, Cook heals quickly for fantasy managers but his playoff schedule of the Buccaneers, Bears, and Saints is daunting for the overall fantasy RB2.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Montgomery returned to action following Chicago’s bye week and missing week ten with a concussion. He had an impressive 85.0 percent opportunity share (third) after rushing for 103 yards on 11 carries. Montgomery’s fantasy day was bolstered by catching five of six targets for 40 yards and a touchdown from Mitchell Trubisky.
His 25.3 fantasy points set a new season-high for Montgomery and propelled him to a fantasy RB6 finish for the week. A 57-yard run and his performance in the receiving game paved the way for one of his most efficient fantasy outputs of his career. Montgomery scored 9.6 points over expected and his 2.10 scrimmage yards per play were both season-highs.
Montgomery also has one of the low-key, best remaining schedules according to Football Outsiders. He faces the Lions (23rd) in week 13 and then the Texans (27th), Vikings (16th), and Jaguars (26th) during the fantasy playoffs. While he’s been an uninspiring RB2 option for fantasy managers this season, Montgomery has legitimate top-twelve upside when considering his weekly opportunity and receiving upside down the stretch.
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
Welcome back to fantasy lineups Mr. Ekeler. Ekeler hadn’t suited up since suffering a serious hamstring injury all the way back in week four. He didn’t dazzle on the ground in his return rushing for 44 yards on 14 attempts. His 16 targets warmed the souls of fantasy managers everywhere and doubled his target total on the season. He caught 11 of those targets for 85 yards making him the fantasy RB8 for the week.
Ekeler’s 30 opportunities this week equaled a 76.9 percent opportunity share (fifth) and surpassed his 57.0 percent opportunity share from his three healthy games by a wide margin. His 68.8 percent catch rate and lack of touchdowns contributed to a rather inefficient -8.2 fantasy points over expected given his opportunity. However, Ekeler’s 1.55 scrimmage yards per play (tenth) was solid from an overall team efficiency point of view.
Looking ahead his receiving floor and upcoming schedule of New England, Atlanta, Raiders, and Broncos will make Ekeler a safe top-twelve option as long as he remains healthy.
Kenyan Drake, RB ARI
Drake had a 68.4 percent opportunity share (eighth) on 22 attempts for 78 rushing yards and a touchdown. He followed up his season-best 12.8 percent target share last week with an 11.8 percent target share this week. He caught three of four targets for 15 yards against the Patriots in week 12. He had been averaging a 4.3 percent target share over his first eight games this season and now has averaged a 12.3 percent target share over his previous two games.
Drake managers should be pleased with his 67.1 percent opportunity share (tenth) on the season. His primary back role appears safe at this point in the season even though he’s been inefficient with his opportunities. He’s ranked eleventh-worst among RBs with -9.1 fantasy points over expected and only ranks 21st with 1.12 scrimmage yards per team play on the season.
Managers beating the drum for Chase Edmonds to be given more opportunities will have to settle for a moral victory. Edmonds has only scored 5.8 fewer fantasy points than Drake on 73 fewer touches. Their weighted opportunities are actually much closer and are another example of how valuable targets are in fantasy football. Drake has 129.2 to Edmonds’ 115.3 weighted opportunities.
Fantasy managers need to go back to the basics on this one. Drake is getting the opportunities and could be seeing a bump in receiving volume as well. This increase in targets could be essential for Drake’s fantasy outlook for the rest of the season. His remaining opponents have an average rank of 10.8 in Fantasy Football Outsiders Rush DVOA. Targets could be the safety net his managers need to prevent a devastating flop in this pivotal stretch of the fantasy season.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry carved up the staunch Indianapolis run defense without All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner in week 12. Henry had a 67.4 percent opportunity share (ninth) on 27 carries for 178 yards and three touchdowns. Henry also added two receptions on four targets for seven yards. He finished as the fantasy RB1 and scored 38.5 fantasy points. His 16.4 fantasy points over expected and 2.57 scrimmage yards per team play further illustrated how special Henry’s week-winning performance was this week.
The Colts were supposed to be Henry’s last difficult matchup and now fantasy managers are prepared for Henry to carry their fantasy teams the rest of the season.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
Elliott looked to be immune to bad game scripts in the first half of the season averaging 7.3 targets per game. Since then he’s averaged 2.3 targets per game, played with three different quarterbacks, and has faced extremely negative game scripts. His fantasy fortunes looked to be turning around in a positive game script against the Vikings in week 11. Week 12 brought more disappointment to fantasy managers.
This week Zeke had a respectable 65.0 percent opportunity share (eleventh) but that’s where the good news ends. He had only ten carries for 32 scoreless yards and caught one of three targets for another seven yards. To make matters worse he also had a fumble giving him a grand total of 2.9 fantasy points.
Elliott appears to be a matchup dependent fantasy option with only one decent matchup against the Bengals in week 14. Fantasy managers should play him at their own risk but at best he’s a flex option outside of week 14.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Chubb posted his second-highest opportunity share of the season at 64.7 percent in week 12. He rushed for 144 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and secured all three of his targets for 32 additional yards. His three receptions doubled his total on the season and fantasy managers were reminded of Chubb’s receiving ability he flashed last season. His 26.6 fantasy points were a season-best and he finished as the RB4 on the week.
Chubb has been one of the most efficient running backs this season and it continued this week. In only seven games, he’s fourth in the NFL with 35.1 fantasy points over expected. Chubb’s efficiency within the Cleveland offense has been elite as well. He’s fourth in scrimmage yards per team play with 1.64 yards per play.
While Chubb did have an impressive game this week, Kareem Hunt was still productive in a reduced role with a 35.3 percent opportunity share. Chubb is an automatic start the rest of the season but Hunt remains a solid RB2 option for fantasy.
Ronald Jones, RB TB
The Buccaneers are in a little bit of a tailspin losing three of their last four games. The team struggles have directly impacted Jones’ opportunities. Over the previous four games, Jones has had three games with under ten weighted opportunities and has averaged 12.5 touches. In week twelve, the Buccaneers only had 17 total running back opportunities for the entire team.
Luckily, Jones had a couple of big plays and was able to turn them into a fantasy RB13 finish for the week. He rushed nine times for 66 yards and caught one of two targets for 37 yards and a score. He had a surprising 64.7 percent opportunity share on only 35.6 percent (thirteenth) of the snaps against Kansas City.
Lately, Leonard Fournette has handled more opportunities in negative game scripts. The sample size is too small from this week to suggest Jones is carving out more of a role in passing situations in Tampa Bay. However, if Jones could siphon off a few more targets from Fournette it could pay off in a big way for fantasy managers in the playoffs.
The Buccaneers have a week thirteen bye, but in the playoffs, they have good matchups against the Vikings (16th), the Lions (23rd), but face an impressive run defense in Atlanta during the semi-finals. If (a big if based on a big assumption) Jones has earned more trust in the receiving game, he could get more play against a pass-funnel offense against the Falcons. This would provide fantasy managers with three plus-matchups during the playoffs.
Nyheim Hines, RB IND
Hines had a season-high 64.5 percent opportunity share (14th) with Jonathan Taylor deemed a high-risk contact and placed on COVID-IR. He carried the ball ten times for 29 yards while catching eight of ten targets (23.8 percent target share) for 66 receiving yards. Playing from behind for the majority of the game Hines had a fantasy RB12 performance on the week scoring 17.5 fantasy points.
A solid game for Hines who had his fourth top-12 game this season. The Colts’ backfield should return to a committee approach after Taylor was returned to practice on Wednesday. Hines managers should circle week 16 against the Steelers as a must-start game. The Colts have two matchups against the Texans (27th) and one against the Raiders (30th) in their three other games this season. Those games are shaping up to be big games for Jonathan Taylor who could provide a valuable late-season surge for his fantasy managers.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
Gibson has put up three outstanding fantasy weeks in his last three games. He’s finished as the RB7, RB7, and RB2 in those matchups and has scored 25.5 fantasy points per game. Not to rain on Gibson’s fantasy parade, but in those games, he’s faced the Lions (23rd), the Bengals (21st), and the Cowboys (29th). He’s also scored six rushing touchdowns. This suggests Gibson could be due for some regression over his next several games. He faces the Steelers (fourth), the 49ers (tenth), the Seahawks (twelfth), and the Panthers (18th) to finish the season. Gibson managers should prepare for JD McKissic to see more than the 28.8 percent opportunity share he’s had in the last three games.
None of this should detract from Gibson’s impressive performance in week 12. He had a season-high 64.3 percent opportunity share on 20 carries for 115 yards and three touchdowns. He also had a season-best 29.2 percent target share catching five of seven targets for 21 yards from Alex Smith.
Gibson has been extremely efficient the past month but took things to a different level this week. He scored 14.5 fantasy points over expected and gained 1.97 scrimmage yards per team play (fifth). His production and efficiency over his past three games should earn him a few more opportunities than the 48.8 percent opportunity share he was averaging in weeks five through nine. While Gibson has demonstrated top-ten weekly upside, fantasy managers should temper expectations down the stretch.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
In week eleven, Edwards-Helaire enjoyed two touchdowns and a fantasy RB2 finish for the week. In week 12 against the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he posted season-lows in weighted opportunities (8.0), targets (one), and fantasy points (4.9). For fantasy managers trying to ease their pain, his 63.2 percent opportunity share was his highest dating all the way back to Le’Veon Bell’s first game in Kansas City.
Fantasy managers need to erase this game from their memory and be prepared to start Edwards-Helaire down the stretch. His semi-final matchup against the Saints would be the only game fantasy managers could look to find a replacement. The Saints’ second-ranked overall defense combined with Edwards-Helaire’s 3.4 percent target share over his last two games could force fantasy managers to start another player over him.
Damien Harris, RB NE
Harris had his best opportunity share on the season of 63.6 percent but had his worst fantasy performance scoring only 4.7 fantasy points. Harris struggled to produce on the floundering Patriot’s offense rushing for only 47 yards on 14 attempts and wasn’t targeted in the passing game.
There is a real danger for Harris’ fantasy outlook for the rest of the season. If the opposing defenses don’t have to worry about Cam Newton throwing the ball and can focus on Harris, he could have several more flops down the stretch. Harris does have a good matchup against the Chargers (31st) but he will be a boom or bust flex option during the fantasy playoffs.
Committee Backfields
Buffalo Bills
Week 12 was the first week since week seven Devin Singletary has led the Bills in opportunity share. He had an opportunity share of 53.8 percent on 11 attempts for 82 yards while catching all three of his targets for 20 yards. Singletary was consistently picking up chunks of yards and had his first game over 100 scrimmage yards with Zack Moss active. A fumble hurt his fantasy performance but he did have his best day from an efficiency perspective. He had 1.65 scrimmage yards per play while also having a season-best 4.5 fantasy points over expected.
Moss out-snapped Singletary 37 to 25 but had fewer opportunities with his 42.3 percent opportunity share. Moss performed well on the ground against the Charges and their 31st-ranked rush defense. He rushed for 59 yards on nine attempts and caught both of his targets from Josh Allen for nine yards. He finished the day scoring 1.0 fantasy points over expected and as the fantasy RB29.
Buffalo remains a split backfield despite the bump in Singletary’s usage this week. Singletary does get the receiving work but the Bills only rank 21st in targeting running backs. Singletary’s low receiving volume and lack of involvement in the red zone makes Moss the preferred running back to roster for fantasy. Josh Allen averaging 7.4 rush attempts per game should have fantasy managers looking elsewhere for running back production.
Denver Broncos
Kendall Hinton started at quarterback for the Broncos after their entire quarterback room was moved to the COVID-19 list. It’s difficult to gain any valuable information from this game due to the extraordinary circumstances it was played under. Melvin Gordon did dominate the snaps with an 81.4 percent snap but the opportunities were split evenly among Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, and Royce Freeman. Gordon had a 38.7 percent opportunity share while Lindsay had a 29.0 percent share and Freeman had a 25.8 percent share.
Lindsay injured his knee against the Saints and missed practice on Wednesday but was limited on Thursday. If Lindsay can’t go, Gordon is a solid fantasy option. If Lindsay plays fantasy managers should consider the Broncos running backs risky flex options.
New Orleans Saints
Last week I mentioned fantasy managers needed to be on full Defcon Level Two Alert regarding Alvin Kamara with Taysom Hill as his quarterback. Upon further review, a case could be made Kamara’s volume reduction occurred before the Drew Brees injury.
Through week seven Kamara averaged 19.3 touches per game, a 69.9 percent snap share, and an opportunity share of 58.6 percent. Then in week eight, he popped up on the injury report with a limited practice with a foot injury but still saw 78.4 percent of the snaps, a 71.4 percent opportunity share, and 21 touches. During week nine, Nick Underhill reported Kamara had a bone bruise but it wasn’t serious. Since then he’s averaged a 53.4 percent snap share, 13.5 touches per game, and a 47.9 percent opportunity share over his last four games. It’s purely speculation Kamara’s dip in opportunity is injury-related but it’s concerning the decrease happened before Taysom Hill became the quarterback.
Regardless of the cause, week 12 was a series of new lows for Kamara. He had season-lows in snaps (36), snap share (48.4 percent), opportunity share (35.1 percent), touches (twelve), fantasy points (6.2), expected points (7.7), and fantasy points over expected (-1.5).
Meanwhile, Latavius Murray had a season-high 54.1 percent opportunity share and 12.6 weighted opportunities on 19 rushes for 124 yards and two touchdowns. He finished as the fantasy RB5 and scored 12.9 fantasy points over expected.
Fantasy managers are left with a hard decision with Kamara. Most likely he’s still a must-start but managers should also be seriously considering Murray as a viable top-24 option until things change in the New Orleans’ backfield.
Philadelphia Eagles
Entering week 12 Miles Sanders had not played in a complete game this season where he failed to have at least a 72.0 percent opportunity share. Sanders had a 50.0 percent opportunity share in week 12.
An argument could be made this is the result of a small sample. The Eagles only had 18 running back opportunities this week, Boston Scott was on the field in a hurry-up situation, and it could have drastically skewed the percentages.
On the other hand, a different argument could be made Scott is earning more playing time after seeing a steady increase in opportunity share since Sanders returned from his injury. Conversely, Sanders had a costly fumble and is easily leading all running backs in drops and drop rate. Both of which are leading to his steady decline in opportunity share the last three weeks.
Either way, Sanders needs to have a big game in a good matchup against the Packers to calm the anxieties of fantasy managers counting on him during a stretch run.
Seattle Seahawks
In his first game returning from a foot sprain, Chris Carson wasn’t the primary back in Seattle. Carlos Hyde had a 62.1 percent opportunity share on 15 attempts for 22 yards rushing. Hyde added two receptions on three targets for seven receiving yards. He finished as the fantasy RB46 and only scored 4.9 fantasy points. His -9.5 fantasy points over expected emphasize how poor of a performance Hyde had this week.
Carson was efficient in his limited opportunity. He looked impressive on his eight rush attempts gaining 41 yards and scoring a touchdown. He caught both of his targets for 18 yards. He finished as the RB17 and scored 4.4 fantasy points over expected.
Carson was limited in both Wednesday and Thursday practices for the Seahawks as he continues to recover from his injury while Hyde did not practice with a toe injury on Thursday. Fantasy managers should feel confident in Carson moving forward and Hyde is an uninspiring flex option at best.
San Francisco 49ers
Raheem Mostert returned from his injury with a 45.0 percent opportunity share and 12.5 weighted opportunities. He had 43 rushing yards and a touchdown on 16 carries while catching his two targets for zero yards. His 18 touches were one-touch shy of his season-high and were a promising sign the 49ers weren’t limiting his workload.
Jeff Wilson had a 30.0 percent opportunity share while Jerick McKinnon had a 15.0 percent share and Kyle Juszcyk had a 10.0 percent share. Mostert is clearly the back to target in San Franciso.
Next Man Up
Mike Davis, RB CAR
Davis had a 61.8 percent opportunity share in week 12. Rodney Smith and Trenton Cannon are preventing Davis from reaching the 74.5 percent opportunity share he averaged the first time he filled in for Christian McCaffrey in weeks three through eight. However, the six targets and 18.8 percent target share contributed to 18.2 weighted opportunities for Davis this week.
Overall, his RB24 finish and -6.3 fantasy points over expected underwhelmed fantasy managers this week. The Panthers have a bye week in week 13 but all eyes will be on Christian McCaffrey to see if he returns to game action for the fantasy playoffs.
Wayne Gallman, RB NYG
Gallman has put up back-to-back top-ten fantasy running back weeks in his last two games. In week 12, he had 24 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown while also reeling in three of five targets for -3 receiving yards. Gallman underperformed his opportunity by scoring -10.6 fantasy points over expected but his 74.4 percent opportunity share makes him a valuable running back moving forward.
Duke Johnson, RB HOU
Johnson had a 65.0 percent opportunity share on nine carries for 37 yards and caught three of four targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. This was his best performance on the season scoring 17.0 fantasy points and 7.1 fantasy points over expected.
David Johnson was designated to return from IR and looks good to go for week 13. Duke Johnson could have earned a slightly larger role moving forward but is too risky to trust in David Johnson’s first game back.
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
Bernard had a 73.3 percent opportunity share for the Bengals who are now without Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. He gained 32 yards on eight carries but grabbed two of his three targets for 17 receiving yards. Bernard is nothing more than a flex option without Burrow spear-heading the Cincinnati offense.
Bernard could be the starter for the rest of the season after Zac Taylor didn’t dismiss the idea Mixon could miss the remainder of the season.
Medical Tent
Todd Gurley, RB ATL
Gurley returned to practice on Wednesday on a limited basis after missing week 12 with a knee injury. Gurley has a tough matchup against the Saints and should try to find other options if possible this week.
Josh Jacobs, RB LV
Jacobs missed both Wednesdays and Thursdays practices after sustaining an ankle injury in his week 12 matchup. Fantasy managers should closely monitor Jacobs’ practice status for the remainder of the week but it doesn’t look good for him playing this week. Devontae Booker would be the first player up if Jacobs doesn’t play this weekend.
Salvon Ahmed, RB MIA
After missing week 12 with a shoulder injury, Ahmed had a limited practice on Thursday and should be good to go for this weekend’s game. Most likely he will be the RB2 behind Myles Gaskin.
Myles Gaskin, RB MIA
Gaskin is eligible for the second week in a row to return from IR. If he can play fantasy managers should expect Gaskin to command anywhere from a 55-70 percent opportunity share this week.
This concludes the RB Opportunity Share Report for week 12. The stats used in this article can be found in my free spreadsheet here. Thank you to ESPN, Rotoviz, Football Outsiders, NFLGSIS.com, Sharp Football Stats, and Player Profiler for the stats and information provided in this article. Thank you for reading this week and I wish everyone good luck in their final push to secure playoff berths in week 13.
____________________________________________________________________________
*Some sites use only running back carries instead of non-quarterback carries. Due to an increased number of designed wide receiver and tight end runs in today’s NFL non-running back carries presents a more complete picture of a running back’s opportunity. If there was a better and more readily available stat for quarterback-designed runs they would be included as well.
You can find my free spreadsheets and databases in my pinned tweet on Twitter. Please DM me with any questions or for help with Excel/Google Sheets.
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State - February 2, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia - January 28, 2024
- 2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Sam LaPorta - June 17, 2023
