Cornerstone Report: Week 12

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.

It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.

Last week’s column featuring DeVonta Smith, Max Borghi and Antonio Gibson can be found here.

NCAA WEEK 13

Javonte Williams, RB North Carolina

As a prep, Williams was a three-star recruit ranked outside the top 1,000 players nationally. He comes from a North Carolina town with a population of 376 people but is en route to becoming a relevant NFL player. He appeared on the devy map when he produced 1,000 scrimmage yards as a sophomore in 2019.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

In the current DLF Devy Rankings, Williams is 17th among 2021 prospects as RB5 in the class. He is unlikely to join the top tier of 2021 backs, including Travis Etienne and Najee Harris, but could join the next tier among Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Gainwell. In a recent 2021 rookie mock draft hosted by Ryan McDowell, he was selected as the RB3 at the 2.05 spot in the superflex format. His value is rising.

This compilation shows a nice cross-section of his game.

The broader community has not caught on to his recent rise as he falls outside the top 75 players in Devy ADP data. Expect that to change as the draft process plays out. The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine 2021 prospects with first and second-year NFL players. Here, he sits at 55th between Oklahoma State wide receiver Tylan Wallace and KJ Hamler.

Despite the buzz, I cannot shake the feeling of wanting more when I watch him, and think he will be a rotational back in the NFL, good for the occasional fill-in start.

Jermar Jefferson, RB Oregon State

Similar to Williams, Jefferson was a three-star recruit with limited scholarship offers. But the two players are trending in different directions. Jefferson produced 1,500 scrimmage yards as a true freshman for Oregon State and has since fallen off the map. He is starting to re-establish himself as a dynasty asset after a 235 yard, two-touchdown performance against the rival Oregon Ducks.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Listed at 5’10” and 217 pounds, he possesses good size as well as the speed to score from distance.

He has also shown utility in the passing game, with 25 receptions as a true freshman.

Now may be the all-time low point of his dynasty value. He is not included in the DLF Devy Rankings or Cornerstone Rankings, and is the 54th-ranked player in DLF ADP data. This puts him roughly 35th among 2021 prospects, implying a rookie draft value in the late third round. Expect his value to rise if he keeps producing.

NFL WEEK 12

Cam Akers, RB LAR

Akers was a dominant college player despite his career 4.9 yard-per-rush average. He was cursed with playing for the worst Florida State teams in the last 40 years.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

A converted high school option quarterback, Akers has elite physical tools and a diverse skillset but is still learning the running back position. When the Rams used a second-round pick on him, some excited dynasty managers hoped for a Todd Gurley-type workhorse role despite Sean McVay’s talk of a committee.

Twelve weeks and a rib injury later, Akers is indeed in a timeshare with Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. When healthy, his snap share has steadily been in the 30% range – far short of the volume needed to be a reliable fantasy option.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Perhaps most surprising is his lack of involvement in the passing game. Akers compiled 69 receptions in his three years at FSU but has only been targeted three times in 2020. That should improve as Akers earns more playing time. Recall he is still just 21 years old.

Despite what seems a roller coaster ride, his ADP has held steady since May’s NFL draft, when he reached a high value of 30th overall. Today he remains a third-round startup pick at 35th overall.

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The DLF ADP Over Time App.

This values him as dynasty’s RB17 between fellow rookie James Robinson and Austin Ekeler per our Dynasty ADP data. This is also fifth among rookie running backs, a value also in line with his May Rookie ADP of RB5 at 1.05.

He is still the RB17 in our Dynasty Rankings but takes a slight hit among all positions down to 45th between fellow rookies Jerry Jeudy and Jalen Reagor. Among Cornerstone players he retains value, as well, with a ranking between Jeudy and Terry McLaurin. Across measurements, the dynasty community does not appear to be discounting Akers due to his slow start.

Let’s look at some real-world examples. Our Dynasty Trade Analyzer algorithm combines ADP data, rankings and actual MyFantasyLeague trades to value players and rookie picks. In terms of picks, it values Akers as a mid-first round 2021 rookie pick – same as his 2020 rookie draft value. In terms of players, Russell Wilson (in 1QB format) and Tee Higgins have similar values.

Finally, the Dynasty Trade Finder pulls real-world MFL trades according to custom criteria. Recent MFL trades involving Akers include the following:

  • 12-1-20: Cam Akers for QB Matt Ryan, ATL (Superflex)
  • 11-28-20: Cam Akers and Year 2021 round one draft pick for RB Austin Ekeler, LAC and TE Austin Hooper, CLE (TE Premium)
  • 11-27-20: Cam Akers for Year 2021 round one draft pick and Year 2021 round three draft pick
  • 11-25-20: Cam Akers for WR Mike Evans, TB

I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.

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