Take a Chance on Me: Quarterbacks
Back 15 or so years ago, I was living up near Minneapolis, Minnesota. Every weekend during football season, Paul Charchian, one of the grandfathers of fantasy football, would host a radio show about fantasy football. This was back before the time of podcasts, and he would often talk about how it was the first of its kind. Regardless of if it was or not, he had a segment on each weekend that featured various covers of the Abba song “Take a Chance on Me” before he would talk about a player at each of the major positions who was on the waiver wire in most leagues that he was willing to ‘take a chance on’ in his starting lineup for that weekend and that weekend only.
Why am I taking this trip down memory lane with you? Well, the fantasy playoffs are coming to a close which means some dynasty owners are preparing for or already in their winter hibernation. However, the savvy owner knows this is the time to step up their game and do what they can to strengthen their roster for next year. Someone who might cost a fourth-round rookie pick now could have a third or even second-round pick value in a few months once free agency and the draft roll around.
In this mini-series, I’m going to highlight a few players at each position who might not be on waivers but could be pretty close to it at this point in time. While they are there for a reason, there are a few of them who give us some reason to hope that they could see a nice increase in their value by the time the 2021 season rolls around. Keep in mind that I’m not advocating paying a second-round pick for any of these guys. I’m simply saying it might be time to see what you can do with a middle or late-round pick because it might be worth it to take a chance on them!
Let’s start with the quarterback position first. All of these players are found outside of the top 20 on DLF’s rankings, some of them significantly below that point.
Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
A few weeks ago, the talk was all about the Jets drafting Trevor Lawrence and trading Darnold away. Then the Jets did what the Jets do, and they really made a mess of things on so many different levels. They were 0-13, looking at the first overall pick in the draft, and then they started to win some games, taking them out of the running for Lawrence. Even with the second or third pick in the draft, I think the Jets might still look to replace Darnold with a rookie quarterback if not this year then next year. He seems to be a convenient target for the media to pin the blame on right now, and they definitely aren’t going to pay him big money.
Unfortunately, the problem actually started long before this year. The Jets failed to invest in their offense to help support their 2018 first-round pick of Sam Darnold. Their offensive line and skill position players were and still are near the bottom of the league. Their last few drafts have been very defense-focused, and this has resulted in Darnold not having much to protect him or to help him out on offense.
Just for a little perspective on how bad the Jets’ pass protection has been, since entering the NFL, Darnold has been sacked 93 times in just 36 games, which is more than one additional sack per game than the NFL average. Does that mean Darnold is terrible and taking too many sacks? Not exactly. As we know, Darnold missed some time with injuries and his backups actually averaged about four sacks taken per game, or over a full sack per game more than Darnold. Saying he is better than his backups at avoiding sacks is setting the bar pretty low, I know. The point is that he has been under a LOT of pressure since arriving in the NFL, and we all know how pressure impacts quarterbacks, especially young ones.
The most important question here is what is there within Darnold that makes me hopefully there is a chance he could turn things around in the next few years? Potentially the biggest is that I don’t think he is going to be on the Jets for much longer. Aside from that, Darnold has shown plenty of flashes over the years that make me think he has the talent to be a top-half-of-the-league quarterback, pushing for back-end QB1 level. He has the arm strength and arm talent to make the NFL throws, he just needs protection to give him enough time and receivers who can actually separate from defenders. He also has a few habits that good coaches (in other words not Adam Gase) should be able to fix and improve that will help him out, which means he still has room to grow. I like him as a late bloomer, and I’m more than willing to give him a chance.
Mitchell Trubisky, QB CHI
As a Bears fan, I’ve had the agony of thinking “We could have had Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes” every time that Trubisky makes a terrible throw, which is way more often than I would like to admit. Trubisky isn’t ever going to be either of those guys, but I think he can turn his career around and actually turn into a decent starter in the NFL. Aside from always being linked to the other quarterbacks in his draft class, Trubisky’s major issue is that when he makes a mistake, it is a big one. He has a tendency to miss throws high over the middle of the field, which almost always ends up as an interception. Or he tends to force the ball into triple coverage. I think some of this can be attributed to lack of experience. Keep in mind that he only played one season in college, which put him a few years behind the normal developmental cycle for a quarterback.
The biggest reason for optimism with Trubisky has been the last few weeks after his return to the starting role. When you look at weeks 12 through 15 of the 2020 season and expand those stats to a 16-game season, you get 3,912 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 68% completion rate. That’s a top ten quarterback! Granted, four games are a small sample size, but when you compare it to virtually any other four-game stretch over his career, it is a definite improvement. Having to sit on the bench, re-evaluate how he plays, and just focus on learning might have been good for him. He still has some bad habits to break and needs to learn to throw the ball away, but his athletic ability and recent improvement make me willing to take a chance on him for 2021 and beyond. Depending on how the season ends for the Bears, he might actually be welcomed back. I would try to make a move on him before any decisions are made though as uncertainty helps to keep prices down.
Gardner Minshew, QB JAC
With the Jaguars all but certain to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstake, Minshew is definitely out of a starting role in 2021. In fact, he might have already lost it in 2020 as the Jaguars’ coaching staff seems to think that Mike Glennon “gives the team a better chance to win”. What they didn’t say on the end of that comment is a better chance to win the first overall draft pick in the 2021 draft.
Potentially best known for his mustache, Minshew actually played better than most people realize. While he was prone to taking too many sacks and forcing the ball too much, which are very common for all young quarterbacks, he actually did a fairly good job given the limitations of the Jaguars’ roster at the skill positions. Chief among these victories for the mustache is his 37 touchdowns to 11 interceptions over his 20 starts. He also has about a 63% completion rate and 240 passing yards per game. For a young quarterback on a bad team, that’s pretty good!
The tricky part about Minshew in terms of him being worth the risk for your dynasty team is that he still has two years left on his contract at a very cheap price. It is entirely possible that the Jaguars start Lawrence in week one of 2021 and force Minshew to sit behind him for the next two years. If that happens, he isn’t going to do much for your roster. However, it is possible that the Jaguars trade Minshew away to a needy team and he gets a chance to play sooner rather than later. If that is the case, he could pay off big time.
That’s it for the signal-callers. Just remember that I’m only advocating picking up these guys if the price is low. I’m not giving a second-round pick for any of them! Running backs are next on the list!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
