Target Share Report: Week 12
Welcome back to the target share report where we look at the usage from the previous week to try and understand which players are doing well and who is struggling. Essentially we look at opportunity, primarily for wide receivers, and try to find dynasty significant takeaways.
You can find all my 2020 data here.
You can also join my live stream every Monday while I collect and discuss first impressions of each week’s stats on twitch, periscope, and YouTube.
I know there’s always a lot going on in my tables. I’m including information about the stats I utilize the most at the end of the article again if you’d like to know more about any of them.
Enough preamble, nerd time!
Target Share Leaders through (most of) 12 weeks
Week 12 technically hadn’t finished up yet at the time of writing, with the postponed Ravens-Steelers game still to play. But you can see the leaders in target share, so far, below.
New target Share Leaders: Denzel Mims
Denzel Mims, WR NYJ and Jamison Crowder, WR NYJ
Let’s start with the two New York Jets on a top 12 list. Mims is slowly eking towards his production matching his role on the offense. He is averaging fewer targets per game than any other player on our list, however, and despite having the highest aDot, it’s hard to believe we’ll see sustained production to match these players.
Mims aDot dropped last week, pushing him closer to Crowder on the field, and letting Breshad Perriman take over the down-the-field role in week 12. This probably connects to Crowder dropping from 11.5 targets per game to 3.3 targets per game since his return in week nine
Crowder looks like the odd man out. While I think we should continue to remember his ability, his prospects are similar to Willie Snead, a productive and skilled player often overlooked in the search for shiny, new things – with a low ceiling.
It should be noted that Crowder’s aDot also rose in week 12, suggesting this could have been game script dependent.
Ultimately Crowder looks like a sell if his value is still elevated through his earlier production and Mims looks like he’s having a strong rookie season that should encourage those who drafted him and place him on the buy list for others.
Target Share Risers
Below you can see players who have risen the most in target share, and have more than one target a game in 2020, over the last three weeks.
Austin Ekeler and has risen in target share recently because he just returned to the field. However, it is noticeable that he has returned to an elevated role with a decent workload overall.
Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Samuel has slowly increased his 2020 volume. He’s now averaging seven targets a game and has increased his target share more than 3% in the last three weeks. I’ve found his value to be low in trade offers recently and his ADP, according to DLF, has dropped from a high of 42 in January to 70th overall in November.
Mohamed Sanu, WR DET
Sure, one target per game might not sound like much… because it isn’t. But in week 12 Sanu, now a fresh new face on the Lions instead of languishing in the purgatory of San Francisco and New England, received his highest target total of the year. Honestly, I wouldn’t put too much stock in his potential, though I think he’s a capable receiver when he earns the opportunity. His inability to stick to two, weak, depth charts this season, however, seems to indicate he has a low ceiling right now, and the Lions are not looking like a franchise that can elevate anyone at this point. Having said that, he may continue to garner borderline interesting opportunity.
Damiere Byrd, WR NE
Coming back down to earth, as we expected, in week 12 it’s still interesting that Byrd is maintaining a decent target share, and five targets per game. In dynasty, I think the fact Jakobi Meyers continues to maintain similar Yards Per Team Pass Attempt, at a lower aDot, with a higher target share and similar value (WOPR) tells you who the better player is. However, Byrd has surprised already and may continue to be a poor man’s Breshad Perriman. Hard to trust on a week-to-week basis, and tough to see a lot of long-term value in. But he’s a decent add or hold in a deeper league.
Rookie Come-ups
Below you can see rookie wide receivers who have increased in target share the most over the last three weeks.
Darnell Mooney, WR CHI
Yes, I will find any way to bring Mooney up in this column. Look, he’s still woefully inefficient, and on a struggling team. But his volume continues to impress for a fourth-round pick (with a decent production profile). He’d be a very awkward weekly start, but it’s a promising start to a career I’m not sure many people were aware of at the NFL draft.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
I’ve already pumped Deebo Samuel’s prospects up a little in his article so maybe it seems strange to see a note about Aiyuk, but the game log keeps increasing in sample size and Aiyuk continues to maintain good rookie numbers. Unlike most of the players I like to talk up, he also has draft capital. I still don’t’ trust this team as far as I could throw an NFL football, but it’s safe to say his rookie year has caught my eye. His ADP had risen to 62 overall in November, which is a tough value to buy at, but I’ll be interested to explore my leagues to see if there’s any softening of that value as a new rookie class begins to suck up all the air in the room this off-season.
KJ Hamler, WR DEN
Tough to see any positive signs in Denver right now, but outside of Jerry Jeudy, Hamler may be our hope. Long-term, with Courtland Sutton returning, and (hopefully) something approaching stability or talent at the quarterback position, it will likely leave Hamler’s 4.9 targets per game (I’m just ignoring week 12) to be forgotten before it’s even noticed.
However, over an injury and COVID-riddled 2020 season, I find Hamler’s rise in volume worth noting. In the last three weeks, before week 12, he had two games with ten targets and one with six, for an average of 8.6 targets per game. That’s higher than most deep stashes I, or anyone, can mention here in the doldrums of the 2020 playoff push, that may be available for a third-round pick or potentially as a waiver wire add.
I’m hoping Drew Lock can return to the field, so I think it’s clear my expectations are low. But, again, a big part of my process is to keep my eye on positive signs, for young players, with good college productive profiles. Hamler fits that mold.
Okay, I think that’s about all I have time for this week. Hope you found some of it useful, informative, or somewhat entertaining. You can let me know if you did in the comments below or on Twitter anytime.
Thanks again,
Peter Howard.
@pawhody
Addendum: The Stats explained
Real quick, here are the stats I’m using this week and what they are good for.
YD/TM Att: Yards per team pass attempt
This takes the Pass and Rush attempts of the player’s team each week and divides the player’s total yards against it. It’s a simple, yet powerful combination of efficiency and volume. It has a high R squared value in stickiness (it stays relatively consistent week over week and year over year).
It’s a good statistic to sort players by within a position.
PPG: PPR points per game
Fairly common stat that’s often undervalued these days. Depending on the sample, PPG is actually the stickiest and most accurate stat for predicting production.
EPG: Expected Points per game
This is based on rotoviz.com’s expected points formula (which I don’t know) but essentially measures how “valuable” the touches a player has received. It can be seen as a more accurate volume metric removing the player’s “efficiency” from the equation and just looking at how much value they are “given” by the team for fantasy points.
FPOE/G: Fantasy points over expected per game
Also a rotoviz stat, it gives us an idea of if a player is underperforming (negative number) or overperforming (positive number) their “given” volume. In other words, how efficient they have been.
TD Rate: Yards per Touchdown
Players typically average between 100 and 200 yards per touchdown. To be more accurate, if you’re like that, in 2020 (with more than 20 targets) wide receivers are averaging around 175 yards per touchdown, RBs are averaging 130 yards per touchdown, and tight ends are averaging 160.
Essentially, outside of this range, it tells us who may “regress” in touchdowns in the coming weeks.
Percentage of games with seven targets or more:
This one is fairly self-explanatory. I use it as a context check for target share. A high target share in a low passing offense isn’t as “good” as a lower target share in a high passing offense in terms of expected targets.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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