Twitter Observations: Will Baker Mayfield’s Hot Streak Last?
At (very) long last, we’ve reached Championship Week 2020. All those draft picks, trades and non-trades have led to this week for a lucky few who will look to accomplish a year-long goal. And for everyone else, it means the clock officially starts on looking ahead to next season and accomplishing the same goal. The Tweets below highlight a few players who will not only play a big role in who wins this year’s championships but shape what the 2021 season will look like too. Let’s dive in as we celebrate the Championship and Holiday season.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Game Baker
Over the past four weeks, Baker Mayfield ranks 2nd in TD passes (10), 3rd in passing yards (1,232), 5th in completion % (70.2) and 3rd amongst all QB in fantasy points (98.9) 🔥 pic.twitter.com/qoRzp7NlCa
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 22, 2020
For those who stuck with Baker Mayfield this season, they’ve been handsomely rewarded as he carries fantasy (and real-life) teams during the playoffs. As the Tweet enumerates above, Baker’s been on fire and is literally a top-three fantasy quarterback during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.
It’s quite the rebound from a month ago when, through 11 weeks, Mayfield was a low-end QB2 when it came to fantasy scoring. That was part of a larger trend when it came to his dynasty value as it’s been a roller coaster in his short career and trending in the wrong direction as of late:
But with this latest stretch, Baker dynasty owners will have a much harder decision this off-season on whether to keep him or move on.
Dynasty Impact: Before this latest stretch, you’d be hard-pressed to pry a first-round pick for Baker in superflex leagues. Just check out Baker-involved trades in October where you’ll see a wide array of trades presumably from teams dumping Mayfield. But the last month plus an off-season that should have the least amount of turnover in Cleveland since Mayfield’s been drafted has swollen his value to a mid-to-late first-round pick in superflex leagues.
However, I’d be hesitant to pay that since you just don’t know which Baker you’re getting. After all, it’s not as if any of his major statistics have seen that big of an improvement – his 64% completion percentage is only two points more than his career average; he sits at 25 touchdowns, still two back of his record-setting rookie season total of 27; and he’s technically averaging a career-low 220 yards per game. So, while the last month has been great for fantasy players, it looks like it’s the same ‘ol Baker.
The Shape of Waller
Darren Waller 🤝 Travis Kelce pic.twitter.com/vyNMtEM6Mq
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 23, 2020
Entering the season, it was fair to wonder if Darren Waller’s breakout season in 2019 – where he totaled 90 receptions for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns – was a fluke. No doubt it was a great comeback story after Waller fought back from substance abuse issues to finally establish himself in the NFL in his age-27 season. But it certainly wasn’t expected, especially considering Waller was just a sixth-round pick in 2015 and, still classified as a receiver, just the 27th receiver taken.
Yet, his 2020 season has removed all doubt about Waller’s fantasy and real-life value. For example, his 117 targets last year were the 49th most all-time for a tight end (target statistics only go back to 1992). He blew past that number this year with 130 already, currently good for 25th all-time, with two more games to go. If he keeps up his current pace, he’s on track for a top-ten season all-time when it comes to tight end targets.
Dynasty Impact: Even though Waller is in his age-28 season, remember he hardly played in the four years after he was drafted, totaling just 22 games. And in looking at the tight ends ranked ahead of him according to our DLF rankers, Waller blows away any competition not named Travis Kelce or George Kittle. For example, Waller has three 100-yard games this season which is one more than Mark Andrews has his entire three-year career. Waller has also scored eight times this season, something it took TJ Hockenson to accomplish over the last two years.
The disparity between the top tier of tight ends and the rest is so vast that having one of them creates a weekly advantage. Waller is one of those elite options. Currently, his value is that of a late-first round draft pick which sounds right since Waller acts as a de facto receiver. In fact, he’d be a top-ten fantasy receiver this year instead of being a top-two tight end. He’d be one to target this off-season.
Logan Season
In his first season as the primary option, Logan Thomas has unequivocally been a top 10 tight end in the NFL https://t.co/BM2xMaeCBs
— Kyle Stackpole (@kylefstackpole) December 24, 2020
Speaking of another late-bloomer at the tight end position, Logan Thomas was not just a late-bloomer for his career but even this season. Through the first 11 weeks of the 2020 season, Thomas, who had finally earned the starting job in Washington, was just a mid-level TE2 when it came to fantasy scoring. But he’s been on a tear lately, scoring or notching 100 yards in three of his last four which has propelled him to a top-five player at the position for the season. It’s certainly not Travis Kelce or Darren Waller numbers but Thomas is quickly becoming a viable option among the second tier.
Dynasty Impact: Much like Waller, Thomas is an older player who still has a lot of tread left on his tires. Sure, he’s been in the league since 2014 but between injuries and generally not being considered an option in the passing game, he saw just 54 targets until the 2020 season. Now, he’s well on his way to doubling that just this season, currently totaling 91 targets, 62 receptions, and 570 yards to go along with five touchdowns.
And despite this season, and especially his recent tear, Thomas is still extremely undervalued. Our own DLF rankers have him as a low-end TE2 when he’s proven he can be a TE1. And his dynasty ADP is even more of a bargain. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Thomas can currently be acquired for a third-round rookie pick. That’s sure to change as we enter the off-season but even a slight increase in cost to acquire Thomas would be worth it. He enters next season as the only established pass catcher behind receiver Terry McLaurin and has the added motivation of being in a contract year in 2021. He’s a buy.
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