Is Cam Newton’s Dynasty Era Over?
It’s a bittersweet time for NFL fans who hate the New England Patriots but love Cam Newton. As the franchise misses the playoffs for the first time since 2008, fans will have to adjust to what it’s like watching the postseason from the couch and watching another team from the AFC East control the division.
Even if you live under a rock, you’re no doubt aware of how much has happened in Foxboro. Tom Brady left his reign of terror on the AFC in favor of joining Bruce Arians and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down in the sunny beaches of the NFC. Numerous players opted out on the defensive side for New England, and at one point it was believed that the team would start Jared Stidham at quarterback.
Then came Newton. A blockbuster free-agent splash to the tune of a one-year deal grabbed headlines throughout the NFL, and though not many expected the team to keep up with the rising Buffalo Bills, many expected them to make a push for a Wild Card because of their quarterback signing.
At 6-8 with two games left, that dream has died. What started out as extremely encouraging for Newton has turned into a bitter disappointment. Cam’s brush with COVID-19 may have had a large impact on his comfort level, but we don’t know the extent of that either. People will no doubt point out his touchdown-interception ratio, as the five touchdowns and ten interceptions came along with 2,381 passing yards.
However, Newton has also had decent success as a running quarterback (as one would expect), running for 489 yards and four touchdowns. His 211.74 fantasy points (via FantasyData) are 20th for all quarterbacks, but are also 24th for all players. At the very least, he’s provided some big games despite not really having close to the consistent dynasty success of Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers.
Newton’s future in New England and the NFL have polarized many and has raised several questions. Is he washed? Did COVID take away what should’ve been a much better season? Is the supporting cast around him not good enough to allow him to thrive? Will the Patriots tag or extend him to give him a second chance and a longer leash in the AFC East?
As you’ve probably figured out, these questions are also relevant in the wide world of dynasty football, and Newton’s high-level dual-threat ability has kept dynasty owners full and satisfied in seasons past. So giving up on him will not be easy for many Newton dynasty fans. First, let’s take a more optimistic look into his dynasty future.
Big shock, Newton’s running ability is a huge part of his appeal. He isn’t just a jaw-dropping scrambler, as his subtle movement in the pocket and pocket passing smarts give him an edge many running quarterbacks don’t have. This was most evident in week two against the Seahawks, where he was fitting all sorts of passes into tight windows in spite of a lack of separation and good pass protection from his skill players and offensive line respectfully.
As an intermediate and vertical passer, Newton proved he had some gas left in the tank after departing from Charlotte and the Panthers. Yet for some reason Josh McDaniels had him throwing screen after screen, an area he’s never been great at as a passer. This has resulted in Cam having the sixth-lowest average depth of target among all passers (6.7) according to Pro Football Reference. This is a major contrast to 2019, where despite playing in two games he still had an aDOT of 8.9.
The receivers may have had a part in how McDaniels has called games. Jakobi Meyers has been Newton’s best receiver all season, and no one else has really stepped up to find any rhythm for their new quarterback. Through week 14 they only had 11 drops via PFR, but not much separation or room down the field.
So there’s reason to believe the Patriots can quickly upgrade their receiving corps if Newton is still around. N’Keal Harry has been a major disappointment, so time will tell how long he’ll remain in New England. Combined with the quarterback’s skill set, there are reasons for optimism.
Now here come the reasons for pessimism.
Newton’s accuracy has been weak in 2020, as through week 14 his on-target percentage (once again via PFR’s advanced statistics) have him ranked in the bottom ten among all quarterbacks. That’s concerning considering the offense he’s played in has rarely allowed him to throw the ball down the field.
Newton’s arm post Carolina has not had the same charismatic zip it showed in his Panthers days either. He can still rip it down the field to a good degree, but his new mechanics have slowed down the consistency he once had. Some may say his vegan diet also had an effect on his strength, but personally I think his mechanics and COVID affected him much more.
Finally, whereas hope that he’ll be better with an improved receiving corps was a reason to hang onto him, that same crutch is also a double-edged sword as the old adage goes. There’s no reason to expect Cam to put up monster numbers with a receiving corps as bad as the one he has. He’s been capable of elevating bad supporting casts in the past, but that was not so apparent in Foxboro, especially as the season went on.
So is Cam Newton’s dynasty era over, or is there reason to believe he can turn it back around and stick in New England? Overall, if you’re a Newton owner and have any amount of belief left in his playing ability, I’d hang onto him until free agency at the very least. His future with the Patriots is a major unknown, and he still possesses the dual-threat greatness that made him some beloved among NFL fans and dynasty owners.
If you don’t own him in dynasty and want to look after him in the draft, I would hesitate until it’s clear what his future will be in the AFC East. Even then, there’s still so much work the Patriots have to accomplish in terms of skill players. Julian Edelman will be 35 coming off injuries that shut him down for the season, Harry hasn’t gone anywhere, and Sony Michel has offered very little in the run and pass game as a back.
Newton’s own skill-set appears to be diminishing as his arm strength withers, though part of me wonders how his season would have fared had he not had a date with the virus. Overall, I would hesitate on going after him unless you already own him and want to find a reason to keep him.
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