Tuesday Transactions: Week 16
All the work put in throughout the season culminates in the final week of the fantasy year. Whether your team finds itself in the championship, playing for third place, another consolation prize, or 2021, there are always moves to be made. The transactions for the rest of the year will focus on improving teams in all places as the dynasty season never stops.
Here are five transactions to make prior to week 16.
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL – Buy
More than halfway through the season, many owners likely felt frustrated with the third-year pro after his early-season struggles. After posting an outrageous nine percent touchdown rate and leading the league in touchdown passes last year, the early-season game scripts and schedule did not help him start strong in 2020. He has rebounded since missing a game due to COVID-19 and checks in at QB8 overall with the seven quarterbacks ahead of him all having played an extra game.
The Ravens are going to extend Jackson as early as next spring. Like Josh Allen, as soon as he inks long-term with the team, his dynasty value becomes cemented and although we may never see a QB1 season again, the floor with Jackson is incredible as he leads the league with more than 45 percent of his fantasy production with his legs. The team will continue to cater their style to his strengths and if he can steadily improve as a thrower, the job security, floor, and upside are all there for a long-term superstar.
The Move – Jackson is likely the QB4 to QB8 on the current market and although he will not be cheap to acquire, it is possible to due so with a large tier of elite quarterbacks in the same range and a strong incoming rookie class. Outside of the 1.01, I am willing to buy Jackson for the 1.02 and potentially a piece added on top, and any pivot where you can deal a non-top four pick plus a QB2 like Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff is a fantastic idea. The quarterback advantage won many leagues this year and Jackson will be my biggest target in the off-season.
Robert Woods, WR LAR – Sell (and Buy)
This recommendation comes with a serious caveat and is more applicable if you have not had your trade deadline yet. Most likely, Woods becomes a screaming value in the off-season when his age and steady situation bring zero excitement to the dynasty community. With that said, he faces the Seahawks in week 16 of the fantasy season and enters the week at WR10 overall on the year. Tied to the Rams and Jared Goff for two more seasons, Woods remains underappreciated and could certainly be a league-winner in 2020.
This is the time to shop Woods to anyone playing for anything. Sell his season production. Sell his upcoming match-up. Consider that even if he becomes a value in the off-season, the reasoning behind it will be a saturated wide receiver landscape, strong incoming rookie class and the overall bias against players at the position once they hit the age apex.
The Move – Shop Woods to a contender. Period. Do not get complicated and sell the match-up. If you can not get a first-round pick, a pivot to a younger wide receiver in the same tier is also an option. DJ Chark or Tyler Boyd would be a prime candidate if the team with either of them needs a short-term option. After the season, I will consider buying Woods at a discount once we get into start-up season.
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC – Buy
Typically, you will not see me advocating the buy on a veteran running back who lacks pedigree and has a questionable role as a three-down player. There are exceptions and when they fit the profile of Ekeler, tied to an up-and-coming quarterback and an offense not shy about targeting the position, I will be looking to add more to my portfolio next summer.
After missing six games this season, the fifth-year pro ranks third at the position in target rate and top ten in snap share. Although the goal line work is not always his to convert, he ranks top 24 in overall touch rate and rush share. Translation? He is involved enough in other aspects besides the receiving game to keep other teams honest and there is no legitimate competition currently in the backfield to threaten that. With 53 targets in six full games with Justin Herbert, he is a perfect example of a high-floor tailback that you get what you paid for.
The Move – Pricing on running back is tough. In superflex, I would consider any pick outside of the top eight for Ekeler and if you can buy him for a second-round pick and another non-running back, smash it. If you want to pivot off an overpriced back like Ezekiel Elliott or a back who will see a value decrease like Derrick Henry, buy Ekeler and an additional piece – which is even more actionable in leagues with ten or more starters. There are many pivot ups or downs on Ekeler and considering he may last longer due to his contract and style, buy where you can!
Hayden Hurst, TE ATL – Sell
This is another one that could be accelerated by a league with no trade deadline. After posting a top ten week on the back of a touchdown, Hurst has posted TE1 weeks six times and still holds some value based on his pre-season buzz. Locked in Atlanta for one more season, the narrative about available opportunity and potentially a new quarterback will push people on him as we see movement upward with other buzzier names in the off-season.
Do not fall for it. Hurst will be 28 before he plays his next meaningful game. His yards per target decreased by almost two yards in 2020 and although he has played through numerous injuries, a banged-up history has followed him since college. Barring a situation change that involves an overhaul in the whole offense, the Falcons do not appear adamant about featuring the tight end and if you can move Hurst for a shot at the reset button, do it prior to the draft.
The Move – Look to sell him where scarcity will create a market for him. Tight end premium leagues with more than 1.5 points per reception should warrant at least a second-round pick back and the demand can be slightly higher in a start two tight end premium format. In start two, the move is tough to do without getting a tight end back thus pivoting from Hurst to a lower-tier tight end plus (Gerald Everett, Chris Herndon, Dawson Knox) is where I look first.
Darwin Thompson, RB KCC – Ad
As we head to the fantasy championship week, teams have fallen out of playoff contention, injured players may be shut down for the year and the pool of running backs available to get guaranteed work is greatly diminished. You likely are not looking to the waiver wire for a starter, but with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for the regular season and Le’Veon Bell banged up in the win over the Saints, Thompson will likely be active and get touches next weekend. Furthermore, the Chiefs have clinched home-field advantage making it a bit more likely that Bell and Darrel Williams could see less work as primary insurance if Edwards-Helaire does not return at all.
The Move – Add Thompson anywhere he is available. This is a one week move that could bleed into the off-season as the Chiefs have him under contract and did trust him for touches during their 2019 Super Bowl run. They clearly do not value him as a significant contributor given all their moves this year but given the week 16 situation, make sure he is not on any waiver wire with more than 25 roster spots.
CONCLUSION
The time is now. If you are in the finals or playing for a prize, it is a one-week season. If you can trade, maximize your matchups, and minimize what you give up against the margins. Set your line up and go from there. If you are out of the playoff race, be an aggressive seller to those teams still alive and if you are looking for moves to make if trading is closed, see the previous few articles for advice on types of players to look at going into the off-season. Players with pending free agents on their team or free agents themselves are primary targets along with running backs who could secure a spot on a depth chart in 2020. Best of luck in championship week. Bring home the gold and/or green.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
