Joe Burrow’s Dynasty Future: Buy Or Sell?

Johnny Kinsley

There was plenty to like in regards to Joe Burrow’s rookie season with the Bengals. Drafted number one overall as an attempted beam of light for a dismal era of football in Cincinnati, the team made up for their lack of wins with a bunch of close games with Burrow at the helm.

The team’s plans, however, changed in week 11, when Burrow was knocked out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, torn MCL, and damage to his meniscus and PCL. From that point, the Bengals have been in the basement along with the Jets and Jaguars – outside of their shocking win over the Steelers on Monday night – and the future of head coach Zac Taylor has been in question.

Burrow finished his rookie season with 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions while rushing for 142 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Fantasy Data had him finish with 173.72 fantasy points, and in a 16-game stretch, he would have been on pace for 277.95 fantasy points, a decent mark for a rookie passer.

This was done behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league. The lack of progress made by the Bengals’ pass protection is stunning considering the investment poured into that unit, and though it wasn’t the cause of Burrow’s season-ending injury, it did its part in roughing him up too many times to count.

So with a new potential coaching regime and upgraded offensive line, that would make Burrow a decent fit for a dynasty team. Tee Higgins looks like a star in the making, Tyler Boyd is one of the better slot receivers in the league, and Joe Mixon is primed to return in 2021, so the skill player options look pretty good for the LSU prodigy.

So with that said, should you buy or sell on Burrow’s dynasty future?

To get this out of the way, let’s start with why you should sell.

Why you should sell

There are concerns with starting Burrow in a dynasty league. I could talk about how his arm strength isn’t so good, but that’s been done to death and isn’t my biggest problem with his dynasty future. I could speak about how he does have a talented receiving corps to throw to, but potentially without AJ Green for the next few years. I could discuss how he hasn’t been much of a deep passer as well.

These are not severe concerns in comparison with what I fear from Burrow. They’re all legitimate gripes, but it’s the quarterback’s healthy and lower body that have me concerned for his dynasty future. Coming back from a torn ACL suffered in week 11 is bad enough especially for a rookie, but there’s further damage that threatens to have the Bengals’ signal-caller sidelined not just for the beginning of the 2021 season, but potentially the entire season as a whole.

Typically you hold off drafting someone coming off that major of an injury, and behind a dismal offensive line things can only get worse if Burrow is rushed out to start next season. The Bengals need to give him more time to rest up and heal. They drafted him first overall, and it’s on them to make sure he’s as healthy as possible before he can return to the field.

So, those are the reasons to avoid Burrow in dynasty. Now let’s take a look at the reasons one may want to look toward drafting him for your team.

Why you should buy

The most striking thing about Burrow’s skill set is his mobility. This has earned him comparisons with Tony Romo coming out of college (though I’d hesitate to completely compare him to one of Romo’s qualities as he was a much better pocket passer), and it seems to be warranted. Burrow’s college tape was full of plays where he bought time outside the pocket and created outside of structure, and he was getting more than enough practice with an offensive line as bad as the Bengals’.

Burrow’s intermediate and short accuracy were both solid for rookie standards, and his poise was surprisingly competent considering the aforementioned trainwreck pass protection barely keeping him from the morgue. Having those receivers around him helped, but his decision-making, in general, was good for his first year in the NFL and that would be encouraging for any healthy quarterback going into their sophomore year.

Getting back into Burrow’s arm, I will say it is a bit weak compared to rookie quarterbacks of the past and present (Justin Herbert). There’s not a ton of zip on his passes, most evident on the game-ending interception to Julian Blackmon and the Colts earlier in the year. Deep passes are also something to work on once he gets back on the field, as he and the Bengals’ receiving corps were not on the same page often in the vertical game.

Bengals fans deserve a good quarterback, and Burrow has shown his ups and downs as any rookie quarterback would. So it’s brutal that his rookie season not only ended prematurely, but ended in such a way that it jeopardizes his sophomore season as well.

The verdict

There’s plenty to like about Joe Burrow and plenty of reasons to think he may one day be an above-average starter in the NFL, as well as a valuable dynasty asset. However, because of the extent of the injury he suffered against Washington I would personally sell on Burrow for the time being. It’s not a complete guarantee that he’ll even play in 2021, and because of the bad pass protection and coaching, it becomes even more difficult to be convinced that he’ll work out as a dynasty QB for next year.

Beyond that, there’s probably some hope, as Burrow will be in his mid-20s and on his rookie contract, so if you’re looking for a cheap pick I suppose you could do far worse. His mobility is appealing and his accuracy and decision-making have a good foundation. But the issues beyond his control are sadly the same reasons I have against selecting him in dynasty drafts.

johnny kinsley