IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals – you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups.
To uncover these players, I came up with suggestions going down two main avenues – The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 19 Hits, 16 Average, 13 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 33 Hits, 17 Average, 15 Busts
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week 15 Observations
- I’m not exactly sure whether or not to buy the Nick Vigil late-season hype, but as long as he is active and Kyzir White remains limited, he looks like a safe top-25 linebacker option to close out the season.
- From last week: “If you are in a tackle-heavy IDP scoring league, few defensive backs are looking better on waivers than Adrian Phillips right now. He’s got 22 tackles (15 solo) the past two matchups alone, and is causing havoc along the line of scrimmage as well.” Seven tackles and a sack later, keep firing him up.
- Roquan Smith had an absolutely shocking dud in what should have been a smash spot for him. Brutal, as it knocked me out of two semifinal matchups.
- Folks, we were right on Emmanuel Ogbah! He got a sack on Cam Newton yesterday, restoring our faith in his resurgent role for Miami going into next season and beyond.
- Terez Hall appears to be a very cheap long-term stash. Whenever Ja’Whaun Bentley misses time or is limited, Hall shows out. He is certainly a name worth monitoring.
- Kamren Curl led Washington in tackles (again). I can’t wait to see what the coaching personnel decides to do with him in 2021.
- Patrick Queen’s sack was to be expected in such a favorable matchup, but he really is starting to look a lot more like an actual NFL professional toward the end of the season.
- Again, avoid all Minnesota pass rushers.
- Zach Allen, Arizona’s defensive end had… 11…. yes, eleven(!!) total tackles yesterday. A simply unreal performance out of a defensive lineman.
- Kwon Alexander looked sharp in week 15, but his opportunities dwindled against the Chiefs. Demario Davis piling up 15 tackles probably had something to do with it, but it just shows us we can’t rely on Alexander as a lower end linebacker in our most important matchup of the season.
Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters that have tough matchups ahead in the first round of the playoffs who you MAY consider benching for a dart throw found below (I know, I know…it’s the playoffs! But just because they got you here, doesn’t always mean they’ll be able to bring you across the finish line either)–
DL: Cameron Heyward, DeForest Buckner, Akiem Hicks
LB: Foyesade Oluokun, Jamie Collins, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Rashaan Evans
DB: Logan Ryan, Kenny Vaccaro, Kevin Byard, Keanu Neal
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
As we close out the regular season, here are the top 25 players by Disruption Score in the 2020-21 season (minimum 25 total tackles). Trey Hendrickson will return to #1 as he crosses the 25-tackle threshold in his stellar performance against the Chiefs yesterday, putting him on pace to post a top ten Disruption Score all time!
Defensive Line
Romeo Okwara, DE DET (Season Disruption Score: 24.69 ~ DL #18 overall)
Okwara feels like a cheap option to put in the waiver wire column, but I feel like it’s worth noting he appears to officially be “back.” He hit a mini-slump compared to the pace he was setting halfway through the season, but you were warned this may have happened based on his tough matchups in that span. Okwara got back to form against the Titans in a favorable matchup, bringing Ryan Tannehill down in the end zone for a safety. His week 16 matchup against the Buccaneers is neutral at best, but Okwara has shown to excel in neutral or better matchups all season long. I’d fire him up as a low DE1/high DE2 option to get your week started right on Saturday afternoon.
Bilal Nichols, DT CHI (Season Disruption Score: 14.26 ~ DL #34 overall)
Nichols is more of a “play him if you are desperate for a defensive tackle” option, but I have had my eye on this guy for a few weeks now. Recommending a Bears defensive tackle with all of the other beasts they have along their front seven has always seemed kind of silly, but Nichols caught my attention this week when he racked up seven total tackles(!) against the Vikings. Nichols has been a great Disruption Score buy-low candidate all season long, and he has another favorable matchup next week against the depleted Jaguars.
Linebacker
Matt Judon, LB LV (Disruption Score: 24.72 ~ LB #5 overall)
Finals week is all about swinging for the fences and being contrarian, and what better way to do this than by playing a boom-bust outside linebacker in a regular linebacker roster position! Judon has just as many games with 15+ fantasy points (four) as games with less than five points, so you have to know there is a ton of risk involved. Nonetheless, I am confident in Judon’s matchup against the Giants this week as the Ravens are going full speed ahead as they make their playoff push. Judon sacked Gardner Minshew for a safety yesterday, and that pretty much sums up the kind of upside you can find with Judon on your side… just don’t say I didn’t warn you, either.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
DeMarcus Walker, DE DEN (Week 16 @ Los Angeles Chargers)
The Chargers are currently surrendering the fourth-most points to opposing defensive ends on the season, and the Broncos sure do know how to rack up sacks. I expect Denver to have their way with the Chargers’ offensive line pretty much at will for most of the game, but the only question is who is going to be the real beneficiary in this game in that area – Malik Reed? Bradley Chubb? Shelby Harris? Well for me, I say why not DeMarcus Walker! Walker has been on a nice sack streak over the past month, with 3.5 sacks in his last four games. He isn’t a must-start option for me, but I do think his ceiling (if everything works in his favor) could be extremely high. If you’ve lucked your way here and need to shoot for the stars, Walker is your guy to overcome one last miracle.
Linebacker
Todd Davis, LB MIN (Week 16 @ New Orleans)
As long as Eric Kendricks is out, Davis will continue to play his way into must-start territory. Davis led the team in tackles in their divisional battle against the Bears yesterday and finds himself gearing up for a savory matchup against the run-heavy Saints in your championship week. Davis will be a top-24 option for me on volume alone, and a tremendous third linebacker in your lineup if you have had him buried on the bottoms of your bench all season long like myself.
Matt Milano, LB BUF (Week 16 @ New England)
While Tremaine Edmunds is the main linebacker to own in Buffalo, the Patriots offer enough opportunity to linebackers to support two great options next week. Milano had a disappointing performance this week with only six tackles against Denver, but Denver was a known tough matchup for linebackers. AJ Klein’s monster tear is finally over as the first string options are finally starting to return to the field for the Bills, and Milano’s natural role in this defense is a profitable one in your championship lineup. I would rank Milano as a mid-LB3 in my eyes next week, but this is a name worth monitoring if you are simply out of other options in your must-win matchup next week. Plus, it’s nice to have someone left to play heading into Monday night when your whole season is on the line
Defensive Backs
Vernon Hargreaves, CB HOU (Week 16 vs. Cincinnati)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Hargreaves is someone who provides that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on. He has 21 tackles over the past four weeks, but only one interception on the season. Hargreaves isn’t the most talented cornerback in the league, but like I’ve preached all season, your IDP roster doesn’t have to be the most talented to be the best for fantasy football. It needs to get targeted the most.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
