Running Back Opportunity Share Report: Week 14
Welcome back to the Running Back Opportunity Share Report, a weekly series examining how teams are utilizing their running backs. Volume is king for running backs in fantasy football. Please refer to week five’s article for a review on the importance of volume for running backs.
What is RB Opportunity Share?
RB opportunity share is calculated by combining a player’s carries and targets and dividing them by the team’s total non-quarterback carries and running back targets.* This provides a single metric to illustrate the percentage of the team running back opportunities a player is receiving.
Bellcow Report
For this series, bellcow running backs will be defined as running backs with an opportunity share greater than or equal to 70 percent.
Blue Chips: Dalvin Cook, Cam Akers, Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and James Robinson.
Committee Backfields: Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, and Washington Football Team.
Next Man Up: Wayne Gallman, Mike Davis, and Jeff Wilson.
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
Cook’s workload has been special since returning from injury back in week eight. He’s averaged an 87.2 percent opportunity share, 22.0 weighted opportunities, and 23.9 expected points in those seven games. Cook is leading running backs in all three of those important volume metrics since week seven and is in the top top-three in all three on the season.
In week 14, Cook had a 92.9 percent opportunity share (first) on 22 attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. He caught two of four targets for eight yards in a relatively quiet game receiving. He scored 19.0 fantasy points but only finished as the fantasy RB11 in a boom-scoring week for fantasy running backs. There have only been two other weeks in which top-12 running backs have scored more points. The 305.6 fantasy points scored by top-12 backs this week were well above the 269.9 average top-12 backs had scored in weeks 1-13.
While Cook’s volume has increased since his return from injury, his efficiency has decreased. In his first seven games, he averaged 10.4 fantasy points over expected. Since then he’s had five consecutive games with negative fantasy points over expected. This is in part because of his lack of touchdowns over his last five games. Cook has only scored two touchdowns in his last five after scoring 13 touchdowns in his first seven games.
Cook has the Bears in week 15. They allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. He’s still a must-start in any format for fantasy managers.
Cam Akers, RB LAR
Last week, I mentioned how Akers’ dynasty value was heating up. His value is officially sizzling after an RB10 performance and the first 20-plus fantasy game of his career in week 13. In week 14 he rushed for 171 yards on 29 attempts against the Patriots. He had a modest target share of 12.5 percent and totaled 23 receiving yards after catching two of his three targets.
The sudden uptick in fantasy scoring the last two weeks has to do with one thing: an increase in volume. Akers averaged a 21.6 percent opportunity share and 4.3 weighted opportunities in weeks 1-12. His volume jumped to a 68.8 percent opportunity share and 13.8 weighted opportunities in week 13. In week 14 his volume reached new heights with an 88.9 percent opportunity share and 21.6 weighted opportunities. Akers’ 40.6 expected points the past two weeks are more than the 40.5 expected points he had in weeks 1-12.
Not only did Akers enjoy a hearty surge in opportunities but he was efficient with them as well. He had an impressive 3.08 scrimmage yards per play (second). His 1.0 fantasy points over expected stood out too because he failed to find the end zone which normally would result in negative fantasy points over expected.
Akers has the Jets for the fantasy playoff semifinals. They currently give up the tenth-most fantasy points to running back. Akers is a must-start in week 15.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Kamara’s week 12 35.1 percent opportunity share seems like a distant memory after his season-high 80.8 percent opportunity share in week 14. Additionally, his 22.3 weighted opportunities were the first time he’s crested the 20.0 weighted opportunities threshold since week eight. Overall, he had 11 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown while catching seven of ten targets for another 44 yards. His ten targets doubled the number of targets he’d had in the three games Taysom Hill has started combined. Kamara’s 20.7 expected points were also the most he’s had in any game with Hill leading the offense.
Kamara maintained his efficiency he’s had all season after his volume returned to its typical levels last week. He had 1.7 fantasy points over expected and 1.49 scrimmage yards per play. He shined with six evaded tackles and a 33.3 percent juke rate on his 18 touches.
The Saints welcome back Drew Brees which should be conducive for another healthy target share for Kamara in week 15. After back-to-back fantasy RB9 weeks, fantasy managers should be comfortable with Kamara’s matchup heading into week 15 against Kansas City.
Miles Sanders, RB PHI
Sanders returned to his pre-injury level opportunity share against the Saints. He had a 79.2 percent opportunity share (fourth) and rushed for 115 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 attempts. Not only did he have a tough matchup against the Saints but many managers worried over his target share with the mobile Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Sanders surprised with a 19.2 percent target share and caught four of five targets for 21 yards.
His 17.7 expected points were the most he’s had since week three and his 16.1 weighted opportunities were more than his two previous week totals combined. Both metrics were supported by his strong receiving game. His 6.8 receiving expected represent a solid floor with Hurts leading the Eagles. Sanders’ efficiency came mostly from his two touchdowns and an 82-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
His fantasy RB3 finish against the second-toughest matchup for fantasy running backs should provide Sanders with a similar role heading into week 15. He faces the Cardinals who give up the 17th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Ronald Jones, RB TB
Jones had his best opportunity share of 76.9 percent (fifth) since all the way back in week eight. He handled 18 carries for eighty yards and a goal-line score while securing one of two targets for four yards. His 15.4 fantasy points made him the fantasy RB15 in week 14 as he appears to have taken over the Buccaneers backfield. Unfortunately, in another stroke of bad luck, Jones suffered a broken pinky that required surgery. To make matters worse he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list making him doubtful for week 15.
Fantasy managers should monitor this situation closely. The Buccaneers face the Falcons in week 15 who give up the seventh-fewest points to running backs but with Jones out Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, or Ke’Shawn Vaughn could have a noteworthy role this week. This situation is difficult to predict but Bruce Arians will likely employ a committee approach this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
Most fantasy players don’t get too excited about a 14.1 fantasy point performance and an RB17 finish. However, Edwards-Helaire had his best opportunity share since Le’Veon Bell arrived in Kansas City. He had a 75.9 percent opportunity share (seventh) after catching five of six targets for 59 receiving and a 17.6 percent target share. His highest target total and share since week five. Edwards-Helaire wasn’t as successful on the ground totaling only 32 yards on 16 carries.
His 18.8 weighted opportunities and 16.2 expected points were also the highest he’s had since week six. Again, he didn’t wow anyone with this performance. His -2.1 fantasy points over expected are disappointing but his 1.47 scrimmage yards per play were eleventh-best in week 14.
Edwards-Helaire has failed to live up to top-five running back expectations but he still is the RB14 on the season and has eight top-24 weeks. He’s tied for second-most top-24 weeks with Jonathan Taylor among rookie running backs behind James Robinson. Edwards-Helaire also is tied with Taylor for third-most top-12 weeks with four behind Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Teams out of the playoffs looking to rebuild or retool should check-in with CEH’s managers and see if he can be acquired at value.
Looking ahead to week 15 he has a tough matchup against the Saints. Edwards-Helaire should be featured again in the passing game making him a respectable RB2 option in fantasy lineups in week 15.
James Robinson, RB JAC
Robinson disappointed in the first round of the fantasy playoffs with 12.3 points and an RB20 performance. He still had a 72.2 percent opportunity share (eighth) but it was his lowest share since week three. He rushed for 67 yards on 12 attempts and caught all four of his targets for 16 yards and an 8.2 percent target share.
A popular narrative in the fantasy community at the moment is Robinson has proven he should have a primary role next season even though he’s an undrafted free agent. However, many believe a more talented backup could join the Jaguars and siphon off a few opportunities here and there. A potential glimpse of this reality occurred as Devine Ozigbo had a season-high four targets. A potential 20+ weighted opportunities became 13.3 and 20+ expected points disappointed at 11.3.
Savvy managers should target teams who bowed out of the first round of fantasy playoffs and started Robinson. It’s worth checking in to see if they’re ready to cash out after a slight letdown this week. Also, Robinson’s managers need to prepare for more tough sledding ahead against the Ravens. Surprisingly, Baltimore has been giving up more points to running backs lately and now allows the 16-most fantasy points to backs on the season.
As the overall RB4, he’s almost impossible to sit. Fantasy managers will have to hope Ozigbo carving out a receiving role was a one-time occurrence. If this is the case, expect Robinson to regain his 81.9 percent opportunity share he’s had so far in 2020 along with the 20+ weighted opportunities. Otherwise, Robinson could be in store for another long day in a negative game script.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry delivered a fantasy-MVP caliber performance in the quarterfinals of the fantasy playoffs. He had a 66.7 percent opportunity share and 18.3 weighted opportunities. He pounded his way to 215 yards and two touchdowns while catching both of his targets for seven yards. He finished as the RB1 for the third time this season and eclipsed 30.0 fantasy points for the third time as well.
Henry tore up the Jaguars’ defense with nine evaded tackles and had a remarkable 19.0 fantasy points over expected. He led all running backs with 3.36 scrimmage yards per play and was next to unbeatable for opposing managers. Fantasy managers should expect more of the same against the Lions who give up the most fantasy points to running backs.
Kenyan Drake, RB ARI
In a much more favorable matchup, Drake’s opportunity share rebounded from a 52.0 percent share in week 13 to 66.7 percent in week 14. He had a season-high 23 carries but managed only 80 yards and a touchdown. A 3.5 yards per carry might appear to be inefficient but Drake was able to make something out of nothing evading six tackles for a 25.0 percent juke rate. His receiving opportunities took a dip this week catching his lone target for ten yards. Overall, from a volume perspective, Drake enjoyed one of his better days with 14.9 weighted opportunities and 19.5 expected points.
Drake continues to be unimpressive in the efficiency column scoring -3.5 fantasy points per game and only 1.14 scrimmage yards per play.
The Cardinals face a challenging run-defense in the Eagles who give up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Chase Edmonds is a game-time decision this week and if he’s out Drake could get a significant boost in targets making him a much safer play.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Montgomery put up his third-consecutive game with over 20 fantasy points and finished as the fantasy RB6. For the second consecutive week, he had a 65.2 percent opportunity share. Well below the 87.8 percent opportunity share he had been averaging since Tarik Cohen was lost with an injury. He rushed for 113 yards and a score on 11 attempts and caught three of four targets for 42 yards and a 12.1 percent target share. Cordarrelle Patterson has averaged eight attempts the last two weeks after only averaging 3.9 attempts per game the first 12 weeks of the season. Montgomery delivered against the Texans despite season-lows without Cohen active of 12.7 weighted opportunities and 11.5 expected points.
He continues to dazzle in friendly matchups in large part due to his efficiency. He’s now averaging 11.4 fantasy points over expected and 2.11 scrimmage yards per play in his last three contests.
The fantasy RB9 on the season has a slightly stiffer matchup against the Vikings who give up the 18th-most fantasy points to running backs. Montgomery will need to see more than the 14 touches he saw in week 14 to continue dominating for fantasy managers in the semifinals.
Aaron Jones, RB GB
Jones posted his first single-digit fantasy performance in week 14. Historically Jones has disappointed when his volume dips but his 64.3 percent opportunity share was higher than his 57.8 percent share on the season heading into the week. He was held in check by the Lions defense and was kept out of the endzone for only the fourth time this season. Jones had 15 attempts for 69 yards and caught two of three targets for six yards and a 9.7 percent target share.
Jones has had a slight dip in volume over the last month. He’s averaging 13.0 weighted opportunities and 11.4 expected points after averaging 17.4 weighted opportunities and 18.7 expected points per game in his first seven games. The drop in volume is closely tied to his stymied usage in the receiving game. He’s averaging only three targets and a 9.4 percent target share the last month after averaging 5.6 and a 17.3 percent target share per game over his first seven games. Additionally, Jones has only had one goal-line attempt and one red zone target in his last four games after totaling seven goal-line carries and nine red zone targets in his first seven games.
Jones remains a must-start in the fantasy playoffs this week against the Panthers who give up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.
Committee Backfields
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor appears to have regained the role he had carved out for himself heading into the Colts bye week back in week seven. In his two games entering the bye week, he had worked his way up to a 57.0 percent snap share, 63.3 percent opportunity share, 12.5 weighted opportunities, and 12.6 expected points in weeks five and six. In weeks 8-10, Taylor’s snap share dropped to 29.6 percent, opportunity share to 27.8 percent, weighted opportunities to 8.4, and expected points to 110. Over his past three matchups, he’s averaged a 53.2 percent snap share, 56.1 percent opportunity share, 15.4 weighted opportunities, and 15.3 expected points.
His increase in volume paid off for fantasy managers in week 14 as he finished as the fantasy RB2 with 30.5 fantasy points. He had a 59.5 percent opportunity share and 14.8 weighted opportunities on 20 attempts for 150 yards and two touchdowns. He added two receptions for another 15 yards in the receiving game. Taylor impressed with season-highs in scrimmage yards per play (2.70) and fantasy points over expected (15.4).
Nyheim Hines‘s role has stayed relatively flat in the games Taylor has been active. He’s averaging a 34.6 snap share, 26.6 percent opportunity share, 9.0 weighted opportunities, and 10.1 expected points. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect it to change much even with Taylor’s emergence.
In week 14, Hines had a 29.7 percent opportunity share, 10.4 weighted opportunities, and 10.4 expected points. Hines rushed for 58 yards on seven carries while catching all four of his targets for 17 yards. He remains a usable flex-option for fantasy managers.
Hopefully, Taylor’s big performance will keep Jordan Wilkins’ usage low. He averaged a 34.8 percent snap share, 38.7 percent opportunity share, 9.7 weighted opportunities, and 10.3 expected points in weeks 8-10. In week 14 he only had three opportunities on six snaps. Fantasy managers need this to be a two-back backfield for Taylor and Hines to have reliable fantasy value week in and week out.
The Colts face the Texans in the fantasy semifinals this week. The Texans allow the second-most fantasy points to fantasy running backs.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills continued to use a committee approach in week 14. Head coach Sean McDermott appeared to favor the bigger back in Zack Moss against the stout Steelers’ defense this week. Moss had a 60.9 percent opportunity share and 9.1 weighted opportunities on 13 attempts for 43 yards. Devin Singletary had led the backfield averaging a 69.2 percent opportunity share and an 11.5 percent target share over the past two weeks. In week 14 he saw his opportunity share fall to 34.8 percent to go along with a season-low 5.7 weighted opportunities. He rushed for 32 yards on seven attempts. Neither back was targeted heavily out of the backfield as Josh Allen targeted them both once through the air.
The Bills have an easier matchup against the Broncos this week. They allow the 14th-most fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy managers should be hesitant to lock-in either back into their playoff lineups at this point. Josh Allen keeps too many goal-line attempts for himself and the Bills have been more than happy to attack defenses through the air. Singletary’s receiving role this season could give him a slight edge if fantasy managers needed to pick between the two.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler rebounded this week scoring 23.6 fantasy points during his fantasy RB8 performance in week 14. He had a 60.0 percent opportunity share gaining 79 yards on 15 carries. He caught all nine of his targets for 67 receiving yards and a 20.5 percent target share. His 23.0 weighted opportunities and 20.1 expected points are exactly what fantasy managers were hoping for from a volume standpoint this season for Ekeler. He had 7.5 rushing expected points to go along with his 12.6 receiving expected points. His receiving floor makes him one of the safer fantasy starts in week 15.
Justin Jackson returned to the lineup this week making Joshua Kelley a healthy scratch. However, the Chargers continued to use Kalen Ballage as the primary back-up running back. He failed to get anything started only managing 14 yards on seven attempts.
This is not the Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler backfield of seasons-past. Ballage could be a sneaky flex-option against the Raiders who give up the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy managers should be expecting big things from Ekeler on Thursday Night Football this week.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were a two-back backfield in week 14 against the Browns. Dobbins led the way with a 59.1 percent opportunity share on 13 attempts for 53 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins managers expecting a breakout performance continue to be disappointed. Dobbins only had 7.5 weighted opportunities in week 14 and his season-high is only 11.9 which he’s done twice back in weeks eight and eleven.
Gus Edwards finished as the RB13 this week thanks to two touchdowns. He was the secondary-back with a 36.4 percent opportunity share on 7 attempts for 49 yards. His 5.7 weighted opportunities and 4.8 expected points don’t make him a reliable option each week.
Lamar Jackson’s presence limits the upside of both Dobbins and Edwards. He hasn’t targeted the running backs much out of the backfield and his rushing ability will continue to suppress their overall upside. The Ravens play the Jaguars in week 15 who allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Dobbins is an upside RB2-option and Edwards can be considered as a decent flex option. However, fantasy manages should remember Mark Ingram could always see a random 25 percent of the opportunities in any week which poses an additional threat to both Dobbins and Edwards.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb handled the majority of the carries in week 14 with a 57.6 percent opportunity share rushing for 82 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts. He added two receptions for 21 yards through the air. Hunt had a 39.4 percent opportunity share with six carries for 33 yards and a touchdown. He had a season-high in both receptions (six) and targets (seven) for 77 yards, a touchdown, and a 15.9 percent target share. Despite having a lower opportunity share Hunt had 14.6 weighted opportunities to Chubb’s 13.0 and 15.0 expected points to Chubb’s 12.8. Hunt finished the week as the fantasy RB4 and Chubb was the RB7.
They both were very efficient with their touches as well. Chubb had 11.5 fantasy points over expected and 1.24 scrimmage yards per play while Hunt had 14.0 fantasy points over expected and 1.33 scrimmage yards per play.
The Browns play the Giants who give up the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy managers should be ready to roll out both Chubb and Hunt across their fantasy lineups.
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift returned as the lead-back for the Lions after missing three games with a concussion and an illness. He had a 57.1 percent opportunity share by rushing for only 24 yards and a touchdown on seven carries but did secure four of his five targets for an additional 26 yards. His 12.0 weighted opportunities and 13.4 expected points weren’t at the same 17.2 and 15.2 levels before his absence. He still finished with 15.0 fantasy points and as the RB16 on the week and will hopefully increase his opportunities one week removed from his illness.
Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson both registered a goal-line carry this week but operated as clear backups behind Swift.
The Lions face the Titans in week 15 who give up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. They could be without center Frank Ragnow and quarterback Matthew Stafford this week but Swift’s receiving floor out of the backfield should still make him an easy start for fantasy managers. Swift had eight receiving expected points in week 14 to go along with his 5.4 rushing expected points. This is the kind of floor fantasy managers should be looking for out of their running backs.
Denver Broncos
Melvin Gordon continues to outperform Phillip Lindsay in both volume and efficiency metrics. Gordon had a 55.2 percent opportunity share and 12.3 weighted opportunities while Lindsay had a 44.8 percent opportunity share and 9.6 weighted opportunities. The volume split was even more evident in their expected points. Gordon had 16.2 expected points to Lindsay’s 7.6. Lindsay did only have -2.5 fantasy points over expected compared to Gordon’s -4.1 but Gordon had 1.49 scrimmage yards per play to Lindsay’s 0.51.
As far as raw production goes Gordon had 13 attempts for 68 yards and caught all three of his targets for 23 yards and an 11.1 percent target share. Lindsay’s disappointing fantasy performances continued as he managed 24 yards on 11 attempts. He’s only had double-digit fantasy points twice this season and this last happened back in week eight. In an attempt to not pile on the hurt Lindsay managers, he did have a 7.4 percent target share which doubles his seasonal target share of 3.5 percent. Unfortunately, two targets aren’t much to write home about.
The Broncos play a middle of the road run defense in the Buffalo Bills this week. They allow the 15th-most fantasy points to running backs. Gordon is a low-end RB2 option this week after averaging a 55.2 percent opportunity share, 12.1 weighted opportunities, 14.0 expected points, and two top-24 finishes over his last two weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs did fantasy managers a favor by posting on Instagram he’d be active but not playing in week 14 despite actually playing. His 54.5 percent opportunity share was well below his 65.2 percent share on the season heading into the game and he only managed 10.4 fantasy points. Not only did he taunt fantasy managers on social media but his five targets and sporadic target share continues to leave fantasy players exasperated.
His 15.5 weighted opportunities are a promising sign but can’t be counted on moving forward even though he started the season with five straight games over 15 weighted opportunities. In his previous six games, he’s only eclipsed 15.0 weighted opportunities twice.
In his second game back from injury, Jalen Richard’s 21.2 percent opportunity share was his highest share since week seven. His return eliminates Devontae Booker as a potential flex option for fantasy managers desperate at the running back. Booker had his lowest opportunity share of 21.2 percent since week seven.
The Raiders face the Charges on Thursday Night Football and they allow the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Josh Jacobs is a solid RB2-option in week 15.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott was dealing with a calf injury throughout the week and the Cowboys’ running back usage reflected this in week 14. Elliott had a season-low 51.7 percent opportunity share gaining 48 rush yards on 12 attempts and caught two of three targets for eleven yards. His 11.7 weighted opportunities were his second-lowest in 2020 and his 11.4 expected points and 7.9 fantasy points were his third-lowest this season.
Tony Pollard had a season-high 44.8 percent opportunity share and 11.9 expected points while his 9.6 weighted opportunities were his second-best total this season. Pollard rushed for 39 yards on eleven attempts and caught both of his targets into receptions for nine yards. He also converted a red zone target for a touchdown this week to finish as the RB19.
The Cowboys play the 49ers in week 15 and they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Zeke has had another week to recover from his calf injury but any potential boost in opportunities could be erased by the 49ers’ tough run defense. Stat him knowing full well he has an extremely low floor this week.
Atlanta Falcons
In back to back weeks, Todd Gurley has matched his season-low 37.5 percent opportunity share. He’s averaged 7.4 weighted opportunities and 6.7 expected points over his past three games. Meanwhile, he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week nine after averaging a touchdown over his first nine games. The Falcons face the Buccaneers and Kansas City in the final two games of the fantasy season and Gurley should be avoided in both matchups.
Ito Smith has averaged a 47.2 percent opportunity share in his last three games and has regained the backup role in Atlanta over Brian Hill. He won’t be making many starting lineups this season but it’s worth noting in deeper dynasty leagues.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks bench their starters midway through the third quarter against the Jets in week 14 preventing a truly big day for Chris Carson. He did have a 44.7 percent opportunity share and 14.9 weighted opportunities on his way to 76 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts. He caught three of five targets for 22 yards and a 15.6 percent target share. He finished the days as the RB12 and scored 5.9 fantasy points over expected.
Carlos Hyde had a 39.5 percent opportunity share while rushing for 66 yards on 15 attempts and wasn’t targeted in the passing game. He had 8.7 weighted opportunities and appears to be moving to a secondary role behind Carson as Carson’s health improves each week.
The Seahawks face the Washington Football Team’s third-strongest defense against the run this week. Fantasy managers will need to rely on Carson’s pass-catching ability for him to reach expectations and Hyde most likely is a desperation flex play.
Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner had his lowest opportunity share of 47.6 percent since week one and played through a quad injury. He rushing for 18 yards on ten attempts and failed to earn a target from Ben Roethlisberger. After impressing in limited action in week 13, Jaylen Samuels was second in this backfield with a 38.1 percent opportunity share. He gained 15 rushing yards on four attempts and caught three of four targets for 18 yards and a 10.8 percent target share. Benny Snell had fourteen yards on three carries for a 14.3 percent opportunity share.
The Steelers play the Bengals on Monday night in week 15. Conner’s healthy and ineffectiveness make him a risky bet in the semifinals. The Bengals aren’t as easy of a matchup for running backs as some might expect. They give up the 21st-most fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy managers could do worse than looking elsewhere for a low-end RB2.
Washington Football Team
JD McKissic and Peyton Barber split the opportunities down the middle in week 14. They both had a 48.4 percent opportunity share. McKissic rushed for 68 yards on 11 carries and caught two of four targets for 18 yards a 13.8 percent target share. Barber gained 37 yards on 12 attempts and doubled his season target total with his three targets. The weighted opportunities were relatively even as McKissic had 12.7 and Barber had a season-high 11.7.
The Seahawks who allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs but McKissic is a risky flex-option with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. Barber is a touchdown-dependent option at best regardless of who plays at quarterback in week 15.
Next Man Up
Wayne Gallman, RB NYG
Gallman had a season-high 76.2 percent opportunity share and rushed for 57 yards on 12 attempts. He secured three of four targets for an additional 16 yards. His 13.3 weighted opportunities are in line with the 13.1 weighted opportunities he’s averaged since he established himself as the primary ball carrier for the Giants back in week seven. His 10.3 expected points are below the 16.6 he’s averaged over the same timespan.
Gallman faces the Browns this week and they allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Gallman’s opportunity still makes him a viable flex-option in PPR formats.
Mike Davis, RB CAR
Davis’ 63.0 percent opportunity share and 15.9 weighted opportunities in week 14 were exactly where his opportunity has been since week ten. Luckily, for fantasy managers, he found the endzone twice making him 26.3 fantasy points and an RB5 performance. He was efficient on the ground and through the air with 93 yards on 16 touches. He caught five of six targets and had a 15.4 percent target share.
Christian McCaffrey is likely out again in week 15 and the Panthers face the Panthers who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy managers shouldn’t have to think twice bout firing up Davis again this week.
Jeff Wilson, RB SF
Raheem Mostert had an MRI on his injured ankle after week 14 and hasn’t practiced yet this week. Jeff Wilson would have a major opportunity if that’s the case. He had a similar situation back in week seven and finished as the RB1 with a 32.0 point performance. The Cowboys allow the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. If Wilson has the opportunity, he could reach John Hightower-level fame and be an essential piece to many fantasy championships.
This concludes the RB Opportunity Share Report for week 14. The stats used in this article can be found in my free spreadsheet here. Thank you to ESPN, Rotoviz, Football Outsiders, NFLGSIS.com, Sharp Football Stats, and Player Profiler for the stats and information provided in this article. The Dynasty League Football Fantasy Points Against APP provided all of the fantasy points against data found in this article. Thank you for reading this week and I wish everyone good luck in the semifinals.
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*Some sites use only running back carries instead of non-quarterback carries. Due to an increased number of designed wide receiver and tight end runs in today’s NFL non-running back carries presents a more complete picture of a running back’s opportunity. If there was a better and more readily available stat for quarterback-designed runs they would be included as well.
You can find my free spreadsheets and databases in my pinned tweet on Twitter. Please DM me with any questions or for help with Excel/Google Sheets.
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