Cornerstone Report: Week 14

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.

It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.

Last week’s column featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, Najee Harris and Gabriel Davis can be found here.

NCAA WEEK 15

Rondale Moore, WR Purdue

Moore posted elite numbers as an 18-year old true freshman at Purdue. He has projected as a first-round dynasty rookie pick ever since.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

He is just 5’9” and 180 pounds but it does not matter. He is strong. Keep in mind this clip is from two and a half years ago:

He is elusive, fast, and versatile (in another clip from 2018).

A knee injury limited him to four games in 2019 but he now appears healthy. He racked up 15 receptions and 136 scrimmage yards in his first game back this year.

His value has held steady. Moore is seventh overall in the DLF Devy Rankings, putting him at 1.06 and WR4 among 2021 rookies. He comes in fourth as WR3 in our Devy ADP. The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players with 2021 rookies. Here he ranks 17th between Jalen Reagor and Najee Harris, with a high rank of 12th from yours truly. Moore will test well at the NFL combine, so expect his value to stay in this range until rookie drafts.

Seth Williams, WR Auburn

Let’s go from rural Indiana to the Auburn Plains to another projected first-round rookie wide receiver. This one is 6’3”, 211 pounds, and physical.

This magnificent clip from last week has it all: a gorgeous touchdown, some life lessons and a cameo from a dialed-in, overalls-clad Mississippi State fan.

His numbers may look modest, but in the Auburn offense, he still hits the team-adjusted production metric thresholds we want from quality prospects.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Williams gained traction in devy circles during his 2019 season. He now ranks eighth among 2021 prospects in our Devy Rankings. The broader community values him slightly lower at 11th in Devy ADP. In the Cornerstone Rankings, he ranks between Bryan Edwards and Justin Herbert. Other 2021 rookies in this neighborhood include Florida tight end Kyle Pitts and USC wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

NFL WEEK 14

Jalen Hurts, QB PHI

In May, Hurts was a mid-to-late fourth-round rookie pick per DLF Rookie ADP. After the top three quarterbacks, there was a round and a half wait until the Hurts tier. His second-round NFL draft capital did not filter down to dynasty drafts. Then, despite rumblings about Carson Wentz’s performance, his ADP actually fell throughout the season.

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The DLF ADP Over Time App.

Fast forward to week 14. Wentz is benched in favor of Hurts, who produces a QB1 week (as QB12 overall) against the stout New Orleans defense.

His 100-yard rushing day should not be a surprise. He initially gained attention as a “running quarterback” at Alabama. This is fine, as it fits the profile of the modern QB1. In 2019, the top ten fantasy quarterbacks averaged 319 rushing yards – even after we eliminate Lamar Jackson’s 1,200-yard rushing numbers from the totals. Hurts ran for 1,800 yards his first two years in college.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

First impressions can be hard to overcome. It is understandable if dynasty managers kept this impression of Hurts. He ceded the Alabama quarterback role to the less mobile Tua Tagovailoa and transferred to Oklahoma. As a senior there he ran for 1,300 yards and 20 more touchdowns.

But while he was running wild, his passing production was sneaky efficient and got better every year.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

His 9.7 career adjusted yards per pass attempt, a measure of efficiency, puts him in the top 25% of quarterbacks drafted in the top half of round one over the last decade.

The DLF Dynasty Rankings give a real-time assessment of Hurts’ value. He is ranked 160 overall as QB19: about a 60-point rise from last month’s ADP. Among quarterbacks, this puts him between Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones.

Our Dynasty Trade Analyzer algorithm arrives at player values by combining ADP and rankings data with real-world MyFantasyLeague (MFL) trades. In terms of draft picks, it values Hurts as a 2021 third-round rookie pick in 1QB leagues, and a mid-to-late second-round pick in 2QB/superflex. Both values are about a round higher than his actual May rookie ADP. Players in this range include Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks.

Finally, the DLF Trade Finder pulls actual MFL trades according to custom criteria. It gives a real-time view of real-world deals.

The following trade was processed the Tuesday after Hurts’ start against New Orleans.

  • 12-15-20: Jalen Hurts, WR Andy Isabella, ARI and Year 2021 round two draft pick for Year 2022 round one draft pick, RB Lamical Perine, NYJ, Year 2021 round three draft pick

These trades occurred before the game but after it was announced that he would start.

  • 12-11-20: Jalen Hurts for Year 2021 round four draft pick and Year 2021 round five draft pick (32 teams, 1QB)
  • 12-09-20: Jalen Hurts for WR Odell Beckham, CLE (Superflex)
  • 12-09-20: Jalen Hurts and Year 2021 round three draft pick for WR Cole Beasley, BUF (1QB)

I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.

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