Tuesday Transactions: Week 15
The first week of the fantasy playoffs is in the books. Hopefully, your team was able to sit back and watch everyone else fight for the right to advance to the semifinals. At this time of the season, those in the mix are checking the waiver wire, looking for possible trades (if no deadline), and obsessing over lineups. Everyone else is looking toward 2021. There are moves to make for everyone!
Here are five transactions to consider before week 15.
Mitchell Trubisky, QB CHI – Buy
We will start the week off with a controversial transaction. It is true, Trubisky will finish the week as a top-five quarterback and should ride in the driver’s seat for the Bears the rest of the way. With that said, the writing is on the wall in Chicago as they have declined his fifth-year option and he is on his way to unrestricted free agency this spring.
If you are still in the playoffs and may be relying on Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, or Matt Stafford, consider buying Trubisky for the next few weeks. His value will fall after the season but considering he ranks 15th in the NFL this year in points generated per target and has only scored 12 percent of his points on the ground, the passing woes have been overblown. He may have to wait to get another starting job but very few with his pedigree never get another chance. The acquisition cost is low enough to take a chance on a future sell window and possibly help you to win a championship.
The Move – In a superflex league, nobody likes Mitch. The reality is, a bet on Trubisky is not much different than a bet on Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, or Jameis Winston. The appealing part is the cost is much lower and any of these are solid pivots in a move for Trubisky and another piece. I would pay up to a late second-round pick if I can secure his services for the rest of the season and an early third-round pick if I make the move after the season.
Robby Anderson, WR CAR – Sell
This move contains stronger leverage if you have not passed your trade deadline. Regardless, Anderson finds the sell category at no-fault of his own, but simply because he enters a range at the position that offers little value. Turning 28 in May, the fifth-year man out of Temple will post a career-high in targets and if all stays course, will finish as a top 15 receiver on the season. With DJ Moore potentially out next week, Anderson will be someone you can move at a premium this week.
Looking a bit deeper, regression is likely to hit after this season and I envision a narrative with Curtis Samuel leaving to unrestricted free agency to prop up Robby into the spring. The potential that the Panthers speed up the offense and make a quarterback change will be another feather in the Anderson value-cap. Ultimately, any buy in 2021 would be at his ceiling and the profile of a 28-year-old receiver who just posted his first top 20 season is one I would look to cash out on.
The Move – Shop Anderson now to a team who just lost Deebo Samuel, DeVante Parker, Mike Williams or any other comparable receiver that could be started immediately. I would take any early second-round pick in a superflex league and if picks are off the table, consider a pivot to another receiver like Courtland Sutton, Parris Campbell plus or even the afore-mentioned Samuel. Players without a path to impactful fantasy contribution such as Tyler Boyd, DJ Chark or Jerry Jeudy are also in the mix as options to seek out.
Joe Mixon, RB CIN – Buy
This recommendation is likely to spark controversy as Mixon has always been tagged to that label throughout his entire career. Many dynasty owners have given up on Mixon ever living up to his lofty draft expectations and in their defense, any running back going into their fifth year is likely much more what we have seen than what we have not seen. What exactly is Joe Mixon?
First off, he is insulated. The Bengals signed him to a four-year extension in August and have no other threats to his workload on the depth chart. Second, he is young. After turning 24 in July, the mileage on the former Oklahoma star is slightly less than others in the same tier and you may be able to bank on two more prime years before the decline. Finally, prior to the mysterious foot injury that cost him much of 2020, Mixon played 31 straight games and has handled one of the biggest workloads in the league during that time.
The Move – He likely falls outside of the top twelve at the position as we get to the spring and possibly further after the 2021 rookie class takes shape. Win-now teams are likely looking at Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, or David Montgomery for the next few weeks and if you fall out of the face, consider Mixon plus another piece to deal any of these guys to a contender. You may lose the bet if Mixon does not bounce back to his pre-2020 value but considering the potential breakdown of other backs with four or more years of experience, insure yourself by adding an extra pick plus Mixon and enter the off-season with a back you can still project a large workload for the next year or two.
Gerald Everett, TE LAR – Buy
It has been a frustrating wait for many Everett supporters who invested back when Sean McVay compared him to Jordan Reed. Ever since, the offense has shifted from a pass-heavy, explosive group to a game-managing, run-first squad trying to hide their quarterback. After showing signs of a breakout midway through 2019, a knee injury sidelined Everett and Tyler Higbee smashed fantasy leagues over the last month of the season and vaulted from obscurity to TE9 in dynasty this past summer.
Higbee has disappointed this season and has barely outpaced his teammate Everett, yet neither garner a feather look in the Rams offense the way it is currently constructed. The good news is the off-season brings a new beginning in the form of free agency. Look for Everett to be a coveted asset this spring on the open market with the potential of a landing spot superior to the Rams. After drafting Brycen Hopkins last April and signing Higbee to a four-year extension prior to the 2019 season, the Rams have shown their intent to let Everett walk.
The Move – Acknowledge that this is a value play more than it is a player take. Currently at TE20, Everett will gain value over the next few months and buying now, regardless of his landing spot, presents a nice investment. I would pay a late second-round pick in a tight end premium league and would prefer to add him as a deal where I cash out on a TE on the sell list (Eric Ebron for instance). Like Trey Burton in 2018, the market is predictable on Everett and adding him now is not the worst move.
Adam Shaheen, TE MIA – Add
This one is directed specifically at tight end premium leagues as the potential shoulder dislocation suffered by Mike Gesicki may knock him out for the rest of the season and the Dolphins have been decimated by the injury bug heading into the fantasy semifinals. Shaheen presents a very intriguing profile who could never stay healthy in Chicago and is auditioning over the next few weeks for a bigger role this spring with a quarterback who has shown a propensity to use the tight end. After posting nine catches and three touchdowns thus far in a backup role, the snaps and targets will rise significantly in the next three weeks.
The Move – Shaheen represents the perfect storm player heading into the playoffs.  He should see an immediate opportunity, has a very solid profile, and can see a value upswing this summer. Add him in any league with more than 25 roster spots with any form of tight end premium or start two required leagues. Drop fringe wide receivers, backup quarterbacks or other stash tight ends with lesser profiles and see what happens with this lottery ticket in the next three months.
CONCLUSION
If your team is still alive after the quarterfinal round, kick the can forward on any injured players and push for the title. The season is two weeks and the short-term equity on any trades are magnified compared to long-term principles. Look for same tier pivots and motivated sellers and capitalize on a ridiculously small remaining sample size. If you got eliminated in week fourteen, continue to comb through your rosters, looking to maximize every roster spot and focusing on players who can change teams, see a perception of value increase, and drop any low-movement profiles heading into the off-season (backup QB). Do not play scared this close to the cash!
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
