Target Share Report: Week 13

Peter Howard

Welcome back to the target share report where we look at the usage from the previous week to try and understand which players are doing well and who is struggling. Essentially we look at opportunity, primarily for wide receivers, and try to find dynasty significant take always.

You can find all my 2020 data here.

You can also join my live stream every Monday (on Twitch, Youtube, and Periscope) while I collect and discuss first impressions of each week’s stats.

I know there’s always a lot going on in my tables. I’m including information about the stats I utilize the most at the end of the article again if you’d like to know more about any of them.

Enough preamble, nerd time!

Target Share Risers

We’re getting into or close to the playoffs in most leagues. So, I thought I’d change it up and focus on some more immediate player usage changes first.

Last week someone pointed out that a player who hadn’t played recently had entered into my “opportunity” riser column. I have no idea how that happened but that’s what I get for trying to write a formula that did some of the leg work for me. This week we’re going to get simple and see who’s increasing in target share over the last four weeks compared to their season-long targets share.

Below you can see the top 12 risers in target share since week ten. Simple, sweet, and less likely to make me look even more foolish than usual.

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Michael Thomas, WR NO

He was injured early in the year, now he’s back. Surprisingly, he’s not back up in dynasty rankings. I’m seeing him fall out of the top five players his position in rankings. I think that’s a bad idea.

Collin Johnson, WR JAC

Target share over the last three weeks is an average, which, if we break it down by team, shows that Johnson has had a larger role than anyone else since week ten on his team. However, DJ Chark is still the lead receiver for fantasy. Chark was injured the week before and seems to have worked back slowly, but this spotty usage shows up and down the depth chart.

Laviska Shenault has also struggled to have consistent usage since week seven.

I think it’s safe to say the unstable quarterback position, and injuries, have affected the distribution of opportunity here. However, Johnson looks like a steady floor on the depth chart. The team is pumping out the 11th most expected fantasy points per game for the wide receiver position in 2020 and Johnson has had back-to-back games with fantasy-relevant production. You could do worse.

Dynasty side take: The Jaguars do this a lot. There’s Keelan Cole (still maintaining a 14% target share right now), but also any number of players such as Allen Hurns, and Marquise Lee over the last few years. Out of them all, only Allen Robinson maintained his usage and impressed enough to really go all-in on. Expect more of the same for Johnson.

Austin Ekeler, RB LAC

He was injured, now he’s back. It’s surprising how often knowing that provides an edge in dynasty. I have him projected in the top 12 this week, easily. It’s the playoffs and he’s returned just in time.

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, WRs SF

How are they both on this list? Easy, no one else has more than a 14% target share over the last three weeks (Kendrick Bourne lives on a perpetual 14% of targets by the way).

Both are good dynasty investments at their current value and should continue to dominate the receiving game in 2020 for the rest of the year. The only problem is it’s a receiving game that ranks 25th in expected fantasy points per game this year. But there is upside this year as well: both have big-play and big-game ability.

Nelson Agholor, WR LV

Darren Waller is the only good receiving player on this team right now, but Agholor continues to be the majority of “the rest” of what passes for the Las Vegas offense. LV ranks 31st in expected fantasy points per game for wide receivers in 2020. He’s had two 20-point PPR games this year but the floor is legitimately one point.

I guess if you can’t get Collin Johnson…?

Marvin Jones, WR DET

Jones continues to lead the receiving game in Detroit. Over the last few weeks, he has distanced himself further with an average of 27% since D’Andre Swift has been unable to take the field.

The team is “middle of the road” in expected fantasy points per game for the wide receiver position (17th) but our faith in the player, even though I have almost none in the team, makes him a solid start every week right now.

Rashard Higgins, WR CLE

So, Cleveland was fun last week, right? Outside of the rhythm game script, it’s Higgins who, once again, proved to be a good fantasy player with solid opportunity and performance. The loss of Odell Beckham has helped unchain Jarvis Landry’s ceiling as well.

Given that the team has been at the bottom of the league (currently 30th) in expected fantasy points per game all year, I wouldn’t expect Higgins to provide a stable floor. But he is “for real,” in terms of his position on the depth chart, in the current form of his offense.

Donovan Peoples-Jones looks like a spike week mirage still.

Luke Willson, TE BAL

I’m not very interested in any Baltimore tight end not called Mark Andrews, no matter how many “L’s” they have in their name. Who needs more L’s anyway? (Sorry that joke is just sitting there, had to do it.) But if you need to know, Willson is the person taking up the mediocre, uninteresting volume for the position in Andrews’s absence.

Willie Snead, WR BAL

Full disclosure, I just love players like Snead in fantasy. Higgins (above), Bourne, Cole, Zach Pascal, Kenny Stills, and any number of others who also manage to prove they are above-average NFL players, and no one cares. Snead’s actually been sustaining a very large role on the team since week eight and is capable enough that he’s a solid start some weeks.

Having said that, Baltimore ranks dead last in expected fantasy points per game in 2020 for wide receivers, something that should moderate the anti-hype around Marquise Brown right now, to be frank.

The offense was always a low passing one even in 2019 when it was on fire, but since it’s smothering its fantasy production in general right now (the team ranks 27th in running back expected fantasy points per game for example) it’s hard to see upside.

The rise of JK Dobbins, and a winning record, aside, I think this is a team we can look for good value trades if you’re already starting to think about next year.

Cole Kmet, TE CHI

In the category of “things about rookies no one really expected or seems to mention”, Kmet joins a list with Albert Okwuegbunam and Harrison Bryant in 2020. That list is rookie tight ends earning interesting levels of volume behind other, more proven, fantasy players.

A 13% target share isn’t exactly awe-inspiring for a tight end, even in 2020, but it is good for a rookie. Over the last three weeks, Kmet has taken over the lead role from Jimmy Graham – who has put up four weeks with double-digit fantasy points this year already and has been a solid streamer overall.

Ty Johnson, RB NYJ

Hey, look! A running back made a target share list, and it’s not Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey. I’m excited.

It turns out Frank Gore can leave a football field from time to time, and in his absence, Johnson (who has shown the ability for splash plays even this year, in a limited role) took over the job.

He only had a 10% target share last week, but over the last three weeks, he’s averaged a higher target share than Gore has in any single game. While his projected volume rise is common knowledge, it’s also worth pointing out he should be more involved in the receiving game.

Well, that’s about all I have time for this week. Hope it’s useful or in some way entertaining, but let me hear about it in the comments below or on Twitter anytime.

Thanks again,

Peter Howard.

@pawhody

Addendum: The Stats explained

Real quick, here are the stats I’m using this week and what they are good for.

YD/TM Att: Yards per team pass attempt

This takes the Pass and Rush attempts of the player’s team each week and divides the player’s total yards against it. It’s a simple, yet powerful combination of efficiency and volume. It has a high R squared value in stickiness (it stays relatively consistent week over week and year over year).

It’s a good statistic to sort players by within a position.

PPG: PPR points per game

Fairly common stat that’s often undervalued these days. Depending on the sample, PPG is actually the stickiest and most accurate stat for predicting production.

EPG: Expected Points per game

This is based on rotoviz.com’s expected points formula (which I don’t know) but essentially measures how “valuable” the touches a player has received. It can be seen as a more accurate volume metric removing the player’s “efficiency” from the equation and just looking at how much value they are “given” by the team for fantasy points.

FPOE/G: Fantasy points over expected per game

Also a rotoviz stat, it gives us an idea of if a player is underperforming (negative number) or overperforming (positive number) their “given” volume. In other words, how efficient they have been.

TD Rate: Yards per Touchdown

Players typically average between 100 and 200 yards per touchdown. To be more accurate, if you’re like that, in 2020 (with more than 20 targets) wide receivers are averaging around 175 yards per touchdown, RBs are averaging 130 yards per touchdown, and tight ends are averaging 160.

Essentially, outside of this range, it tells us who may “regress” in touchdowns in the coming weeks.

Percentage of games with seven targets or more:

This one is fairly self-explanatory. I use it as a context check for target share. A high target share in a low passing offense isn’t as “good” as a lower target share in a high passing offense in terms of expected targets.

peter howard
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