Running Back Opportunity Share Report: Week 13
Welcome back to the Running Back Opportunity Share Report, a weekly series examining how teams are utilizing their running backs. Volume is king for running backs in fantasy football. Please refer to week five’s article for a review on the importance of volume for running backs.
What is RB Opportunity Share?
RB opportunity share is calculated by combining a player’s carries and targets and dividing them by the team’s total non-quarterback carries and running back targets.* This provides a single metric to illustrate the percentage of the team running back opportunities a player is receiving.
Bellcow Report
For this series, bellcow running backs will be defined as running backs with an opportunity share greater than or equal to 70 percent.
Blue Chips: Dalvin Cook, James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, and Chris Carson.
Committee Backfields: Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Football Team, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, and Atlanta Falcons.
Next Man Up: Giovani Bernard, Adrian Peterson, Devontae Booker, Le’Veon Bell, Wayne Gallman, and Benny Snell.
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
Last week head coach Mike Zimmer said he’d like to “be smart” with Cook’s touches. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak said, “He’s just beat up . . . we’ve got to get him freshened up this week . . .” They went on to give Cook 41 opportunities in week 13, seven more than any RB has had this season.
Cook had an 89.1 percent opportunity share (first) on 32 carries for 120 yards. He almost doubled his season-high in targets this week by catching six of nine targets for 59 yards and a 22.5% target share. His 38 touches, 33.2 expected points, and 32 carries were all season-highs for running backs so far this season. His volume was at unprecedented levels in week 13.
Cook’s efficiency wasn’t as impressive from an expected points lens because he failed to score a touchdown. He had -9.3 fantasy points over expected but did have 1.97 scrimmage yards per play (fifth).
The overall fantasy RB2 faces a difficult road ahead against the Buccaneers, Bears, and Saints who allow the 27th-most, 25th-most, and 32nd-most fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy managers should take heart knowing Cook still has one of the safer floors in fantasy with 15.4 rushing expected points per game and 5.5 receiving expected points per game.
James Robinson, RB JAC
There’s not much more to say about Robinson after another game in which he dominated the Jacksonville backfield. He had an 80.0 percent opportunity share (fourth) on 18 carries for 78 yards and a touchdown. He hauled in all six of his targets for 30 yards putting him over the century mark for total yards.
He finished as the RB4 on the week and met expectations given his volume. He scored 22.8 fantasy points and 0.7 fantasy points over expected. He gained 1.52 scrimmage yards per play (ninth) and continues to shine as the focal point of the Jaguars’ offense.
He has one more favorable matchup against the Titans defense who allows the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs before facing the Ravens and Bears. How Robinson finishes out this unprecedented season could have a major impact on how dynasty managers view him heading into this off-season.
Myles Gaskin, RB MIA
Gaskin returned from a four-week absence in a big way in week 13. His 76.7 percent opportunity share in week 13 was almost nine percent higher than his 67.5 percent opportunity share heading into the week. He rushed 21 times for 90 yards and a fumble but caught both of his targets for 51 additional receiving yards.
His -2.5 fantasy points over expected is a fairly strong number given Gaskins failed to score a touchdown against the Bengals. He gained 2.01 scrimmage yards per play (fourth) and it demonstrates how successful he was within the Dolphins’ offense as a whole.
Gaskin’s volume, efficiency, and the confidence head coach Brian Flores placed in him after such a long lay off should be a sign of good things to come for fantasy managers. He’s ranked RB16 in PPG which is significant given he didn’t become the primary ball-carrier for Miami until week three. Since taking over the primary role, he’s averaging 11.0 rushing expected points per game and 6.9 receiving expected points per game. An extremely solid floor with an attractive upside.
Using DLF’s Fantasy Points Allowed App Gaskin has a decent schedule for the playoffs facing Kansas City, New England, and LAs Vegas who allow the 14th-most, 18th-most, and fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Fantasy managers should expect solid top-20 RB production from Gaskin during the playoffs.
Chris Carson, RB SEA
Carson returned to his normal, pre-injury role in week 13. In week 12, he only saw 37.3 percent of the snaps and a 34.5 percent opportunity share. His season average in healthy games has been a 55.9 percent snap share and a 67.0 percent opportunity share. This week Carson had a 58.3 percent snap share and a 70.4 percent opportunity share. Carson rushed for 65 yards on 13 carries and caught three of six targets for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Carson’s 1.53 scrimmage yards per play (ninth) and 6.1 fantasy points over expected (seventh) was the lone bright spot for the Seahawks in an upset loss to the Giants. His performance earned him the fantasy RB6-rank for the week and he continues to produce when healthy. He’s the overall fantasy RB7 in PPG and has an appealing ceiling and a safe floor. He’s averaging 7.7 rushing expected points and 7.35 receiving expected points per game.
Carson has a challenging playoff schedule. He has the Jets, Washington, and Rams who surrender the 13th-most, 30th-most, and 26th-most fantasy points to running backs. Luckily, his floor makes him startable for fantasy managers despite the challenging road ahead.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry’s theme for this series has been how surprisingly touchdown-dependent he’s been for such a valuable running back. In games he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s not a top-12 running back. Week 13 was the third game this season where fantasy managers felt the sting of Henry’s lack of receiving production. He had a 69.6 percent opportunity share on 15 attempts for 60 yards and a fumble. Henry added a reception on his only target for nine yards.
He had his season-low in expected points at 9.7 and had -1.8 fantasy points over expected but fantasy managers need to forget this game and move on. He faces the Jaguars, Packers, and Lions in the fantasy playoffs and all three teams are in the top-five in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Henry is the RB3 overall this season and fantasy managers will be looking for him to carry them to their fantasy titles.
Aaron Jones, RB GB
Jones was held in check by the Eagles defense until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. He scored on a 77-yard run that accounted for 57.6 percent of his fantasy points and made him the fantasy RB3 in week 13. On the day he had a 69.2 percent opportunity share rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts. He secured all three of his targets for 18 receiving yards.
His big run to close out the game for the Packers was not a fluke by any means for Jones. He has six breakaway runs on the season (14th) in only ten games. His big-play ability, sure-hands, and nose for the end zone have made him one of the more efficient backs in the league. He led all running backs with 13.0 fantasy points over expected in week 13 and is seventh overall in fantasy points over expected in 2020. He only has a 56.1 percent opportunity share on the season (21st) but he’s still seventh in scrimmage yards per play.
His efficiency should pay big dividends in the fantasy playoffs. He faces the Lions, Panthers, and Titans who give up the most, sixth-most, and seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.
Cam Akers, RB LAR
An RB16 finish in week 12 sparked hope for Akers’ managers. After week 13, smoke from the embers of their forgotten Akers love could be seen. He had a 68.8 percent opportunity share paired with an RB12 finish this week. If he can control the backfield for the Rams again in week 14, Akers will begin his ascent up dynasty rankings as dynasty managers’ passion for him is fully rekindled.
In week 13, Akers had 21 attempts for 72 yards and a touchdown. He reeled in his one target for a nice gain of 22 yards through the air as well. His 21 attempts were a season-high surpassing the 14 attempts he handled all the way back in week one.
Akers wasn’t as efficient as his volume would indicate scoring -3.8 fantasy points over expected and only gaining 1.13 scrimmage yards per play (18th). However, a gradual progression is promising for Akers’ dynasty outlook and his 62.7 percent snap share should have our attention for the fantasy playoffs. It’s important to highlight Darrell Henderson was limited in this game with an injury, but season-lows in snap share (15.7 percent) and opportunity share (12.5 percent) for Malcolm Brown are encouraging for Akers’ managers.
The Rams have a relatively neutral playoff schedule for running backs. They face the Patriots, Jets, and Seahawks who give up the 18th-most points, 13th-most, and ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Akers is a viable option for fantasy players and could be the lynch-pin for their lineups depending on his volume down the stretch.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Kamara had his best fantasy output with Taysom Hill at quarterback and quickly squashed any speculation of a potential injury limiting his workload. He only saw had 17 touches on the day which could still be the result of the Saints trying to limit his workload during a long season.
Nevertheless, fantasy managers who stayed the course with Kamara were rewarded. He had a season-high 66.7 percent opportunity share on 15 rushes for 88 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, his three targets for two receptions and nine yards was a continuance of his depressed role in the passing game. As a result, he only had 13.5 weighted opportunities. His efficiency within the offense suffered only gaining 1.24 scrimmage yards per play (14th) but his overall efficiency with 6.0 fantasy points over expected was reassuring.
Drew Brees has a realistic shot at returning for week 15 leaving Kamara with one more game with Hill at quarterback. In week fourteen the Saints play the Eagles, who give up only the 24th-most fantasy points to running backs. It could be a difficult playoff matchup for Kamara managers but he should be in most lineups if he continues to see over a 60.0 opportunity share he had in week 13.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Montgomery was the fantasy RB1 in an impressive 27.1 fantasy point week. He rushed 17 times for 72 yards and two touchdowns while also catching all four of his targets for 39 yards. It’s hard for fantasy managers to be upset with an overall RB1 week, but Montgomery had averaged an 87.8 percent opportunity share in weeks 4-12. Some fantasy managers might feel there were fantasy points left on the table after Montgomery had his lowest opportunity share since week three at 65.6 percent. However, his 16.2 weighted opportunities are right in line with his average 16.8 weighted opportunities over the same time period.
Montgomery shined against the Lions scoring a season-best 11.6 fantasy points over expected and gaining 1.63 scrimmage yards per play (eighth). His dream fantasy schedule should continue for the playoffs. He faces the Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars who give up the second-most, ninth-most, and third-most fantasy points to running backs.
He’s getting the volume and has the schedule which could make him a fantasy MVP this season. Additionally, his floor is extremely safe down the stretch. Since Cohen’s injury, he’s averaging 9.2 rushing expected points and 7.5 receiving expected points per game. To have the rushing volume combined with his receiving floor is another reason to love Montgomery for the fantasy playoffs.
Committee Backfields
Houston Texans
In David Johnson’s first game back from a concussion, he appeared to be eased back into the Texans’ backfield. His 60.0 percent opportunity share in week 13 was a significant drop-off from his 80.9 percent opportunity share he had prior to his injury. He rushed for 44 yards and a touchdown on ten carries and failed to convert on his two targets. He finished as the fantasy RB25 and had 2.7 fantasy points over expected.
Duke Johnson had a 40.0 percent opportunity share on only two attempts for eight yards but was featured out of the backfield catching six of six targets for 24 yards. He wasn’t as efficient as David Johnson and scored -1.4 fantasy points over expected.
David Johnson’s fantasy appeal came from having an 80.0 percent opportunity share on an offense with Deshaun Watson. If Duke Johnson truly has carved this role out moving forward, neither Texans running back is a realistic option in most fantasy leagues.
Philadelphia Eagles
The implosion of Miles Sanders’ fantasy season continues. He had a 55.0 percent opportunity share and a new season-low 7.4 weighted opportunities. He rushed ten times for 31 scoreless yards and couldn’t catch his lone target in week 13. His matchup against the Packers and their fifth-most fantasy points allowed to running backs was supposed to kick-start a late-season surge. However, he was unable to overcome poor offensive line play, poor play calling, and a struggling Carson Wentz.
Jordan Howard making an appearance and gaining 19 yards on four attempts only further clouds this backfield. It’s interesting the Eagles think a journeyman running back cut by running back-depleted Dolphins team should get carries over Sanders. Howard also cut into Boston Scott’s role after he had shined as Sanders backup this season. Scott didn’t catch either of his targets and only gained nine yards on two carries.
The situation in Philadelphia is concerning. Jalen Hurts has been named the starting quarterback for week 14. Usually, a running quarterback being named the starter would hurt the receiving upside of the running backs. Hopefully, Hurts’ rushing ability might slow down defenders on run-pass options providing a slight bump for the running game. Regardless, Sanders remains a high-risk flex option against the Saints’ number one defense. Managers should be looking elsewhere for running back help in their first-round playoff matchup.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson suffered a turf toe injury which could keep him out for the remainder of the fantasy season. As a result, Peyton Barber and JD McKissic stepped up in a close game to try and fill the void left by Gibson.
McKissic’s role had decreased sharply in weeks 11 and 12 after averaging a 40.6 percent opportunity share and 16.7 weighted opportunities in weeks four through ten. In favorable matchups over the previous two weeks, McKissic only averaged a 17.1 percent opportunity share and 6.8 weighted opportunities. His opportunity share jumped to 48.4 percent this week on five rush attempts for eight yards and ten receptions on ten targets for another seventy yards.
McKissic’s -2.7 fantasy points over expected were actually one of his better performances from an efficiency standpoint. He leads the league in negative fantasy points over expected with -38.8. Regardless, his receiving volume makes him a great PPR flex-option for fantasy managers.
Barber handled 66.6 percent of the carries and an overall opportunity share of 45.2 percent. He disappointed on his 14 carries for 24 yards and a touchdown against a tough Steelers’ defense. The touchdown saved his day and his 0.32 scrimmage yards per play illustrates how he needs a goal-line dependent fantasy-option for fantasy managers. He isn’t an appealing option for playoff teams.
Arizona Cardinals
In a tough matchup for running backs, Kenyan Drake had his lowest opportunity share on the season of 52.0 percent. He rushed ten times for 49 yards and a touchdown and caught two of three targets for nine yards. His 13.8 fantasy points made him the fantasy RB16 on the week and his 0.2 fantasy points over expected indicates he performed as expected given his volume.
Conversely, Chase Edmonds unexpectedly saw an increase in snap share and opportunity share against the Rams. His 57.8 percent snap share and 48.0 percent opportunity share are season-highs in games in which Drake has been played the entire game this season. However, Edmonds disappointed with an increased role. He did fine on the ground gaining 28 yards on six carries but only caught two of six targets for 15 yards.
It was odd to see Edmonds receive such a large role after two consecutive weeks averaging a 28.1 percent opportunity share. The Cardinals have a difficult playoff schedule for running backs against the Giants, Eagles, and 49ers. This could result in similar workloads moving forward. Drake should still receive the goal-line work and the majority of rushing attempts while Edmonds is featured more in the passing game.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler had a 76.9 percent opportunity share in week 12 but it fell to 56.7 percent in a blowout loss to New England in week 13. Last week, I cautioned fantasy managers to not overextend on Ekeler because Kalen Ballage was still hurt and they should expect a return to the 57.0 percent opportunity share Ekeler had prior to his injury. On the whole, fantasy managers should expect Ekeler’s volume to be closer to his week 13 workload than week 12.
In week 13, Ekeler rushed eight times for 36 yards and caught four of nine targets for 32 yards. He finished as the RB22 on only 10.8 points and scored -3.7 fantasy points over expected. Ekeler still had a 17.3 percent target share and nine targets which are promising down the stretch for fantasy managers.
Ballage had a 36.7 percent opportunity share and 10.4 weighted opportunities giving him some flex-appeal in deeper leagues. He rushed for 34 yards on seven carries and caught three of four targets for five yards.
The Chargers face the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos during the fantasy playoffs who give up the 28th-most, fourth-most, and 16th-most fantasy points to running backs. Ekeler is a must-start but Ballage is an interesting option in week 15 against the Raiders.
New England Patriots
Week 13 was a disappointing game for the Patriots running backs against the Chargers who give up the eleventh-most fantasy points to running backs. The Patriots scored 45 points but Damien Harris, Sony Michel, and James White couldn’t find the end zone. Cam Newton scored two rushing touchdowns while the Patriots also scored two special-teams touchdowns preventing a big day for their running backs.
Damien Harris led the backfield with a 51.5 percent opportunity share and did well on the ground gaining 80 yards on 16 attempts. He caught a rare target from Newton for 15 yards as well. He had a solid 1.42 scrimmage yards per play (12th) demonstrating how efficient he was within the Patriots’ offense. He even had 0.7 fantasy points over expected which is respectable given he was held out of the end zone and he wasn’t featured in the passing game. Look for Harris to maintain this role and be a sound flex-option moving forward.
Michel saw his most work since week three before he was placed on IR. He had a 33.3 percent opportunity share and 7.4 weighted opportunities on 35 rush yards on ten carries. He had a nice chunk play through the air on his only target gaining 23 yards. White wasn’t used on the ground and did catch three of four targets but only managed 1 yard.
The Patriots have a difficult early playoff schedule against the Rams and Dolphins who surrender the 27th-most and 21st-most fantasy points to running backs. In these matchups, White should see more of a role out of the backfield and could be a last-resort flex-option. In the fantasy finals in week 16, the Bills give up the 12th most fantasy points to running backs and Michel could see more rushing opportunities making White a less attractive option at flex.
Cleveland Browns
In a game never really in doubt against the Titans, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt split the work last week. Chubb had a 51.4 percent opportunity share and rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He also caught his lone target for 26 yards. Hunt wasn’t as impressive on the ground accruing 33 yards on 14 attempts but did catch all three of his targets for 24 yards. Chubb finished as the RB10 and Hunt placed just outside the top-24 as the RB28. Chubb remains a must start and Hunt’s 12.1 weighted opportunities per game since Chubb returned still make him a viable RB2-option.
Denver Broncos
The opportunity was split fairly even between Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay against Kansas City. Gordon had a 50.0 percent opportunity share and rushed for 131 yards on 15 carries. He added 11 receiving yards by catching one of two targets from Drew Lock. Lindsay was far less efficient managing a disappointing 26 yards on 14 attempts and couldn’t secure his only target in the passing game. Gordon was the RB14 while Lindsay had a night fantasy managers will want to forget as the RB59.
Gordon has worked his way up to RB22 on the season as a hit-or-miss option for fantasy managers. It will be worth watching to see if Gordon earns a slightly larger workload after his impressive performance but Denver appears content splitting carries between Gordon and Lindsay.
The Broncos face the Panthers, Bills, and Chargers who allow the sixth-most, 12th-most, and 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. Gordon should find his way into a lot of playoff lineups while Lindsay is a less-attractive option but is worth considering.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor was the primary option this week with a 48.5 percent opportunity share against the Texans. He started off slow but ended the day with 13 carries for 91 yards. He caught all three of his targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. His 22.5 fantasy points and RB5 finish were both season-bests for the rookie running back as were his 7.1 fantasy points over expected.
Since the bye and when Taylor is active, Nyheim Hines seems to have settled into a role in which he averages a 27.9 percent opportunity share. In week 13, he had an opportunity share of 27.3 percent. He gained only ten yards on six carries but did score on a goal-line carry. He was more successful in the receiving game catching all three of his targets for 22 yards. The touchdown saved his fantasy day giving him 3.2 fantasy points over expected and an RB20 finish.
Jordan Wilkins continues to add very little value to this backfield. He had a 21.2 percent opportunity share on five attempts for 12 yards. His -1.7 fantasy points over expected in week 13 and -7.5 fantasy points over expected this season continues to make him one of the most inefficient backs in the NFL.
The Colts face the Raiders, Texans, and Steelers who allow the fourth-most, second-most, and 31st-most fantasy points to running backs. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines should be important pieces in a lot of championship lineups.
Atlanta Falcons
Ito Smith led the Falcons backfield with a 41.7 percent opportunity share in week 13. He rushed for 36 yards on eight attempts and caught one of two targets for -2 receiving yards. Todd Gurley saw only one less opportunity than Smith and had a 37.5 percent opportunity share. He had eight attempts on the ground as well but only gained 14 yards. He caught his one target for four yards. Brian Hill had a 20.8 percent opportunity share with five attempts for 18 yards.
Smith appears to have regained the receiving role he lost earlier this season and against difficult matchups, he could be an emergency option for fantasy managers. Gurley hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last two games reminding fantasy managers touchdown regression is real. I’d recommend looking for other options in my playoff matchups than a Falcons running back.
Next Man Up
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
Bernard struggled against a formidable Dolphins defense and wasn’t able to capitalize on an 82.4 percent opportunity share. He had 12 attempts for 30 yards and caught both of his targets for -1 receiving yards. Joe Mixon remains out in week 14 and Bernard should continue to be his primary replacement. The Bengals face the Cowboys who allow the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. However, with Joe Burrow out and Ryan Finley most likely at quarterback fantasy managers should try to find other options in the fantasy matchups.
Adrian Peterson, RB DET
Peterson has proven to be a valuable fantasy replacement over his last two games with D’Andre Swift sidelined with an injury. He’s finished as the RB10 and RB8 the last two weeks and has averaged 17.6 fantasy points. Last week he had 16 attempts for 57 yards and two touchdowns to give him a 65.4 percent opportunity share. He should be strongly considered as a flex-option if Swift can’t’ suit up against the Packers.
Devontae Booker, RB LV
Booker disappointed against the Jets in week 13. He had a 64.3 percent opportunity share on 16 carries for 50 yards. He didn’t impress in the receiving game either catching one of two targets for one yard. Booker faces DeForest Buckner and the Colts’ stout defense in week 14 with Josh Jacobs due to miss another game with an injury. Fantasy managers can play him if they need a player guaranteed to receive a decent amount of volume but he should be avoided in most situations.
Le’Veon Bell, RB KC
Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t play a snap in week 13 after dealing with an illness. Bell stepped in and had a 60.9 percent opportunity share gaining 40 yards on 11 attempts. He also caught two of three targets for 15 yards. He finished as the RB32 on the week and should return to a secondary role in week 14 with Edwards-Helaire expected to be fully recovered from his illness.
Wayne Gallman, RB NYG
Gallman had a big yardage day on the ground with 135 yards on 16 attempts but failed to score or register a target. He still finished as the RB18 even though he had his lowest opportunity share and weighted opportunities since week nine. He has a challenging playoff schedule against the Cardinals, Browns, and Ravens who allow the 15th-most, 22nd-most, and 23rd-most fantasy points to running backs. He remains an option for fantasy managers who have been dealing with injuries at running back this season.
Benny Snell, RB PIT
Snell led the Pittsburgh backfield with a 35.5 percent opportunity share and with James Conner still on the COVID-19 list. He faced a challenging Washington define but disappointed with only five yards on eight attempts and two receptions for five. Conner has been cleared for week 14 and Snell will return to his backup role.
This concludes the RB Opportunity Share Report for week 13. The stats used in this article can be found in my free spreadsheet here. Thank you to ESPN, Rotoviz, Football Outsiders, NFLGSIS.com, Sharp Football Stats, and Player Profiler for the stats and information provided in this article. Thank you for reading this week and I wish everyone good luck in the first round of the playoffs.
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*Some sites use only running back carries instead of non-quarterback carries. Due to an increased number of designed wide receiver and tight end runs in today’s NFL non-running back carries presents a more complete picture of a running back’s opportunity. If there was a better and more readily available stat for quarterback-designed runs they would be included as well.
You can find my free spreadsheets and databases in my pinned tweet on Twitter. Please DM me with any questions or for help with Excel/Google Sheets.
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