Breakouts and Busts Heading into the Playoffs

John DiBari

The fantasy playoffs are here! With 60-70% of fantasy teams seeing their season come to an end, we can look back and see who helped or hurt fantasy teams in 2020. I looked back after week four and again after week nine, and this will be the final installment.

I’m comparing DLF’s start-up ADP from just before the season started in August with current positional rankings. Obviously, I’m not going to include players who have missed significant time due to injuries.

One criticism I received on this series is that dynasty ADP doesn’t necessarily correlate to expected production in the given season compared to redraft ADP. That’s a fair critique, but dynasty owners still have expectations of players (especially early-round draft picks) in year one. The only case where I see the criticism being relevant is for players falling off the age cliff. I’ve considered that and tried to omit the Tom Bradys, AJ Greens, and Frank Gores of the world.

Quarterback

Breakouts

Derek Carr, QB LV (difference in ADP and current positional point-per-game rank:+15)

The Raiders’ Carr was taken at a disrespectfully low ADP in the off-season as the 32nd quarterback off the board. He’s proven the draft community wrong, as he’s been a steady QB2 all year long. He’s a serviceable backup in single quarterback leagues (if you’re into that sort of thing), and he’s arguably been one of the most consistent second-tier signal-callers this season.

Kirk Cousins, QB MIN (+10)

Que your best Rodney Dangerfield impression, but Cousins gets no respect. You’d have to go back to 2015 to find a year where Cousins wasn’t a top-12 fantasy quarterback entering the fantasy playoffs. The guy just gets the job done for fantasy.

Honorable Mentions:

Ben Roethlisberger (+18), Philip Rivers (+14), Teddy Bridgewater (+8)

Busts

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL (-8)

While not a bust in the traditional sense, Jackson has let owners down in 2020. Coming off a monster 2019 season, Jackson is averaging eight fewer points per game in 2020 than he did in 2019. He’s still a QB1, but the sky-high upside fantasy GMs were paying for simply hasn’t been there this entire season.

Carson Wentz, QB PHI (-6)

It’s a double whammy for Wentz’s owners. Not only has he underperformed all year, but if you were counting on him for your playoff run, he finds himself benched for the opening weekend of the fantasy playoffs.

Dishonorable Mention:

Daniel Jones (-12)

Running Back

Breakouts

Ronald Jones, RB TB (+21)

As a hardcore RoJo hater, this pains me deep in my soul, but it is what it is. Jones was being drafted as the RB33, the 91st pick overall in the preseason and is now the RB12. You can’t argue with the results, no matter how many players projected ahead of him got hurt this year.

Mike Davis, RB CAR (undrafted, currently RB10)

In this series, I haven’t included players who have lost time due to injury, but I will certainly recognize the guys who stepped up when injuries opened the door for them. Nobody fits that bill more than the Panthers’ Mike Davis. Davis went undrafted this year, only to find himself banging out a top-ten finish at the position filling in for Christian McCaffrey. Hats off to the waiver wire warriors for this one.

JD McKissic, RB WAS (undrafted, currently RB24)

I’ve been a fan of McKissic for a while. Did you know he finished his college career with 289 receptions, good enough for 29th all time? He has the skills to be a serviceable change-of-pace back and pairing him with captain check-down Alex Smith is a match made in heaven. It’s not likely the stars will ever align like this for him again, but he could be a bye-week filler RB3 for a few years.

Honorable Mentions

Kareem Hunt (+14), Jerick McKinnon (+37)

Busts

Leonard Fournette, RB TB (-28)

What a heart-breaker. Coming off of a 76-reception season, things were looking up for ol’ Lenny. Then he was released by Jacksonville and signed with Tampa Bay, and things were looking even better. Then he landed with a thud in a committee where the above mentioned Ronald Jones is taking over. Maybe he moves on to greener pastures in 2021, but now, the future is looking bleak.

Matt Breida, RB SF (-25)

Breida looked good in flashes in San Francisco, and when the Dolphins acquired him, it seemed like a good fit. It wasn’t. He has been outplayed by Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed and might be looking for a new home next season.

Dishonorable Mention:

Devin Singletary (-6)

Wide Receiver

Breakouts

Keenan Allen, WR LAC (+18)

Not a breakout in the traditional sense, but Allen has overperformed his preseason ADP by quite a bit. On average, Allen was selected with the 47th overall pick as the 33rd wide receiver in drafts. Going into the playoffs, Allen has performed admirably, checking in as the WR4 thus far.

Stefon Diggs, WR BUF (+24)

There were many, many question marks for Diggs heading to the Bills this off-season. Several were tied to his new quarterback, Josh Allen. Well, through 13 weeks, it sure looks like they’re on the same page as Diggs is the WR5 after falling into the fifth round in some drafts. His stock is up.

Cole Beasley, WR BUF (+81)

Two Bills! Beasley has returned to fantasy relevancy as the Bills offense surged. The current WR19 was drafted as WR100. Yes, I know that was primarily age-related, but to be outplaying your ADP by 81 spots is incredible.

Honorable Mentions:

DK Metcalf (+12), Chase Claypool (+41)

Busts

Michael Gallup, WR DAL (-24)

Much of this might lay at the feet of Dak Prescott‘s injury, but many fantasy owners were anticipating a bump from Gallup in 2020. With Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, and rookie stud CeeDee Lamb on the field, Gallup was expected to see favorable matchups. Sadly, nothing has gone as expected in big D, and Gallup has suffered along with everyone else.

Mecole Hardman, WR KC (-19)

Always one play away from popping for a big fantasy day, it just hasn’t happened for Hardman this season. With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combining for 58% of the Chiefs targets, the volume will never be there for Hardman to live up to expectations routinely.

Henry Ruggs, WR LVR (-50)

The Ruggs love was always a bit confusing to me. He is a typical, speedy, boom-or-bust receiver. We will never see the consistency from him to make him fantasy viable outside of best-ball leagues. Enjoy the second coming of Ted Ginn.

Dishonorable Mentions:

JuJu Smith Schuster (-14), Jerry Jeudy (-24), AJ Brown (-14)

Tight End

Breakouts

Robert Tonyan, TE GB (undrafted, currently TE4)

The “Aaron Rodgers doesn’t involve his tight-ends” narrative is true. Or at least, it was true. Tonyan is averaging 11.6 points per game. The last time a Rodgers tight end averaged that many points? Jermichael Finley back in 2009. Tonyan is in the conversation as one of the sleepiest-sleepers of all time.

Logan Thomas, TE WAS (undrafted, currently TE8)

Another undrafted tight end who has climbed into fantasy relevancy, Washington’s Thomas has played his way into a top-eight tight end finish. New to the position, a converted quarterback, Thomas is nearly 30-years old but looks to be a late breakout candidate going forward.

Honorable Mentions:

Eric Ebron (+22), Rob Gronkowski (+6)

Busts

Austin Hooper, TE CLE (-13)

The newly signed Hooper has been a spectacular bust thus far. After being drafted as a TE1, he has been a high end TE3 at best. He is shockingly second on the team in targets but has done nothing with them, as 30-286-2 is not the stat line anyone was hoping for given his four-year, 42-million dollar contract.

Chris Herndon IV, TE NYJ (-34)

Foolishly, I initially assumed Herndon was injured and missed significant time this season. But, nope, he’s just been terrible, averaging 3.1 PPR points per game. The Jets as a whole have been terrible, so it’s not that shocking in hindsight, but considering people were expecting him to finish as a middle of the pack TE2, this is not good at all.

Dishonorable Mention:

Noah Fant (-5), Cole Kmet (-14)

I hope you enjoyed this series. It’s fun to look back at who has under and over performed on the year. Sometimes you can use this info to assess your off-season decisions and improve as a dynasty owner going forward. Aside from draft season, the kick-off to the fantasy playoffs is my favorite time of the year. Hopefully, you had a successful year and good luck in the playoffs!

john dibari