Cornerstone Report: Week 13

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.

It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position, and DLF rankings to compare player values.

Last week’s column featuring Javonte Williams, Jermar Jefferson, and Cam Akers can be found here.

NCAA WEEK 14

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR USC

St Brown was a super recruit as a prep from the legendary Mater Dei program in California, ranked as a five-star, top ten overall player in the 2018 class above fellow receivers Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall. However, the devy community seems to have soured on him despite very good production (137-1,792-9) during his first two years at USC. Last week’s four-touchdown performance has people talking about him again.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

He projects as a late-first round 2021 rookie pick according to our Devy ADP. His Devy Rank of 16th among all college prospects is 11th among 2021 prospects and also implies a late-first round rookie pick value. This seems inexpensive for someone with his pedigree, but also speaks to the quality of the 2021 class. Our Cornerstone Rankings combine 2021 prospects with first and second-year NFL players. St Brown comes in much lower here, as the WR27 and 45th player overall between Florida Gators tight end Kyle Pitts and Tua Tagovailoa.

This clip highlights his elusiveness and short-area burst. He efficiently eludes defenders then emerges from traffic a good one or two yards farther downfield than expected.

Najee Harris, RB Alabama

Harris continued his stellar season with a 145-yard, three-touchdown performance against LSU. He is adding to a resume that would have already been complete had he not returned to Tuscaloosa for his senior year. He was the number two overall national recruit across all positions in the 2017 prep class.

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

He runs with the power you would expect of someone listed at 6’2” and 230 pounds, but his shiftiness and pass-catching ability at that size make him special. He has 63 collegiate receptions and draws comparisons to former St Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson, who at 6’2” and 240 pounds caught 461 balls during his 12 year NFL career.

The decision to return to Alabama for his senior season has not harmed Harris’ dynasty value. He solidly projects as a first-round rookie pick with values of sixth overall in Devy ADP, third in our Devy Rankings (RB2 behind Travis Etienne), and 20th in the Cornerstone Rankings between Jerry Jeudy and Kyler Murray.

NFL WEEK 13

Gabriel Davis, WR BUF

Now is the time when dynasty managers are trimming aging or low upside players from their rosters and replacing them with players with upside, youth, or value. In a year when an astounding 12 rookie wide receivers are in the top 100 players of the DLF Dynasty Rankings, Davis is a relatively inexpensive upside play.

When Buffalo selected him in the fourth round out of UCF, they took a player with strong metrics. His college target share and breakout age are in the top 20 percent of historical wide receiver prospects. His dominator rating, another measure of production, is in the 65th historical percentile. He hit the desired production baselines as a 19-year old sophomore and again surpassed them as a junior.

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The DLF College Market Share App.

His raw numbers present it another way:

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Davis now finds himself on one of the NFL’s most explosive pass offenses. The Bills are a top ten overall offense. They rank in the top ten in most major and advanced passing categories and in the bottom ten in most rushing categories. The team funnels its targets to the wide receivers, de-emphasizing the running backs, and the depth chart is open behind Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley.

He is producing at an efficient rate. It is a promising start that suggests additional upside with more volume.

He is the 144th-ranked player (WR67) in the DLF Dynasty Rankings between Anthony Miller and Irv Smith Jr. Davis was the 47th-ranked rookie in May’s DLF Rookie ADP, meaning it took just a late fourth-round rookie pick in 1QB leagues to secure him. He was an under-the-radar prospect in an elite, deep class. His value has justifiably risen since then.

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The DLF ADP Over Time App.

How is this expressed in real-world terms? Our Dynasty Trade Analyzer combines ADP, rankings data, and actual trades from MyFantasyLeague (MFL) to value players and rookie draft picks. In terms of picks, it values Davis in line with a late-second round 2021 rookie pick – quite a rise from his late-fourth round rookie ADP. In terms of players, Phillip Lindsay and Mike Gesicki have similar values.

Finally, our Dynasty Trade Finder pulls actual trades from MFL according to custom criteria regarding league size and settings. Recent MFL trades involving Davis include the following:

  • 12-4-20: Gabriel Davis for WR Devin Duvernay, BAL and Year 2021 round five draft pick
  • 12-4-20: Gabriel Davis and WR DJ Moore, CAR for RB Austin Ekeler, LAC and TE Zach Ertz, PHI
  • 12-4-20: Gabriel Davis and Year 2022 round one draft pick for RB Kareem Hunt, CLE
  • 12-3-20: Gabriel Davis for WR Jamison Crowder, NYJ and WR KJ Hamler, DEN
  • 12-3-20: Gabriel Davis for WR Marquise Brown, BAL
  • 12-2-20: Gabriel Davis for Year 2021 round five draft pick and Year 2021 round six draft pick

I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.

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