Tuesday Transactions: Week 13

Scott Connor

Thanksgiving is a special week in the NFL season and quite frankly, be thankful we made it this far into the 2020 NFL year. Only two weeks before the start of most fantasy playoffs, most teams are likely well on the way to their destination and it is difficult to change lanes this far into the year. With many trade deadlines come and gone, the weekly transactions article will focus on moves leading teams into the next season and beyond. Here are five transactions to consider before week 13.

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL – Buy

After moving into the top four overall in superflex startup ADP this past summer, Jackson has disappointed many dynasty players as he currently stands at number ten in quarterback scoring in 2020. His latest positive COVID-19 test puts him out for this week and potentially a longer time moving forward and given the circumstances, this might be the best time to consider buying.

Jackson posted an astounding touchdown rate above nine percent last season and on a per-target basis, one of his passes was the third most efficient in the league behind Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins. Despite a reduced role as a runner, his current pace puts him close to 950 on the season with a great schedule down the stretch. The Ravens are committed to building behind Jackson and I would okay gambling that some of his historic efficiency will return during pockets of games in the future.

The Move – In a superflex league, you likely need to move a quarterback in a deal to get Jackson. I am okay moving Dak Prescott for Jackson and if the team without him in week 12 must win next week, consider moving any of Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff plus a first-round pick in a deal to make it happen.

Kenny Golladay, WR DET – Sell

This one might seem obvious given that Golladay has missed the past three games due to injury. Anyone who has tried to shop him is likely frustrated at the lack of offers and instead of holding, consider his true value. Is Golladay just overvalued? He stands at WR15 in the latest ADP and only WR36 on the season in points per game. He recently turned 27 in November and will be an unrestricted free agent in March.

The suggestion to dump Golladay is not an indictment on his talent, rather a statement about the current wide receiver landscape. Combine his profile, latest injuries and uncertain future, the bark on Golladay is much worse than the bite. His 2019 season with 16 games played and a top ten finish is likely his best and I am okay cashing out now with a saturated receiver pool in the NFL.

The Move – The injury and current Lions situation make selling Golladay a challenge. A contender may not be interested in acquiring his services and the most interested suitors are looking toward next season. I would accept any top ten draft pick in superflex leagues for Golladay or look to pivot to a running back like Cam Akers or James Robinson. His value will continue to drop until next spring and depending on his landing spot, a new buy window may emerge at that point.

Chris Carson, RB SEA – Buy

I cannot fathom that we are here. For more than years, I have been one of Carson’s biggest critics and his performance on the field has proven me wrong time after time. He followed up a 14-game, RB14 performance in 2018 with a 15-game, RB9 finish last year. 2020 has been mired with injuries and as a former seventh-round pick, Carson hits free agency this spring.

At RB21 in the latest ADP and combined with a foot sprain that has cost him the last four games, the buy window may be present with Carson. Other than Aaron Jones (RB14 and much more expensive), every other running back in the top 20 have received contract extensions or on a rookie contract. If the Seahawks re-sign Carson, his value enters a much more secure realm going forward.

The Move – There is certainly a chance that Carson continues getting hurt, does not return to Seattle and never gets another job. This is part of the buy angle and if you can acquire him without giving up a first-round pick, make it happen. You can also consider a pivot down from a higher valued back such as Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, or Ezekiel Elliott, all of whom present similar age/mileage risks at a higher tier.

Tyler Higbee, TE LAR – Buy

Very few players can describe frustration like Higbee in 2020. After finishing last season with the best four-game stretch in a decade, Higbee ended number eight in tight end scoring and vaulted up to the top ten in the summer ADP. The Rams have significantly reduced his role in the offense as he has drawn only 37 targets in ten games and currently ranks TE18 in PPR points.

There is good news, however. Higbee ranks 12th in the league in snaps per game. His seven percent target rate is outside of the top 30 and Gerald Everett is topping him in that department by almost three points. Everett is a free agent next spring and Higbee is bound to see a rebound in target share. His upside is capped but at his current price, I am adding him to as many teams as I can heading into next year.

The Move – This move is specifically for start two tight end leagues or with at least a half-point premium per reception. With a new crop of tight ends entering the 2021 class and many young stars emerging, Higbee can be acquired for a high second-round pick in a start two league and is worth buying for a mid-second round pick in other formats. Other players in the same range, Austin Hooper, and Hayden Hurst, are not preferred over Higbee and if you have either on a roster, inquire about a player swap.

D’Onta Foreman, RB TEN – Add

Three years ago, I was prepared to be wrong on Foreman. He emerged as a potential future lead back in Houston before suffering a devastating Achilles that ended his rookie season. The recovery was difficult. He missed most of the 2018 season and the entire 2019 season, bouncing around different rosters before latching on with the Titans earlier this summer. He has slowly taken the backup job in Tennessee and has carved out a small role each week despite being in the same backfield with Derrick Henry.

The Move – Foreman is likely on a roster in leagues with more than 28 roster spots but take a minute to check again. In shallower leagues, consider adding him before the end of the season and dropping any backup quarterbacks, tight end fillers or low-end receivers. I generally do not advocate trading future picks for ambiguous running backs with question marks heading into the off-season, but the former Texas star is a free agent and has shown enough to find a better gig next year. I would consider paying a late third-round pick to acquire his services heading into 2021.

CONCLUSION

If your team is still looking to make moves and the trade deadline has not passed, continue down your path. If the deadline has passed, start combing over your roster and identifying players who will fall in value and maximize the efficiency of those roster spots. The exercise of transitioning each roster spot to a place where it can gain the most value equity in the next six months is an underrated and under-discussed aspect of dynasty roster management. Do not wait until the waiver wire locks in the season, start making moves now.

scott connor