Why You Should Target Austin Ekeler in Dynasty Leagues

Jacob Frank Posted On December 5, 2020

(Editor’s note: This is the first article by new writer Jacob Frank. Please welcome Jacob to the DLF family!)

Austin Ekeler recently returned from injury after missing most of a season in which he was expected to be a top dynasty producer. Now he’s back, should you be buying or selling? Let’s take a look…

Ignore Ekeler’s Season Totals

Ekeler has never cracked 600 rushing yards or 1,000 receiving yards in a season, but this year, he could be a league winner. That is no exaggeration either. Between his target share, catch rate, rushing totals and rushing efficiency, Ekeler has an extremely high points-per-reception (PPR) floor and ceiling, regardless of his matchup.

It’s easy to write-off a running back with low rushing totals, and Ekeler has had low rushing totals up to this point in his career. However, that is mainly due to the fact that prior to this year, he has played second fiddle to Melvin Gordon. During his first three seasons, he only managed to compile 1,371 rushing yards, a mere 457 per season. However, over that three-year span, Ekeler only had a total of 285 carries, giving him a strong 4.8 yards per carry for his career.

But his efficiency in the run game is far from his most useful skillset – where he thrives is his ability in the passing game. In each year of his career, Ekeler has expanded his role in the Chargers passing game. As a rookie, he had a decent showing of 27 receptions for 279 yards. That increased by nearly 30% in his sophomore season to 39 receptions for 404 yards. Last year, while starting only eight games, his receiving totals skyrocketed by 235% as he posted 92 receptions for 993 yards. Those marks surpassed even the career-high season totals of perhaps the most feared receiving back in the NFL – Alvin Kamara!

2020 and Beyond

This year, his totals are once again on the lower end due to an injury he sustained in week four that kept him out until week 12. That being said, his totals for the games he did play this year are very telling, and that is what we should focus on when projecting Ekeler’s future production. The 25-year-old has not had a full game this year where he has touched the ball less than 20 times. In four full games, he has a ridiculous 27 receptions for 227 yards. That’s a pace of over 100 receptions and 900 receiving yards per 16 games played.

He’s getting it done on the ground as well. In those four games, Ekeler is averaging 70 rushing yards on an impressive 4.6 yards per carry. That average falls in line with what we’ve come to expect from someone who has a career average of 4.8.

Taken together, Ekeler’s current game-to-game pace would have him producing at a level to have 127 scrimmage yards, 70 rushing and 57 passing, per game. With an average of six receptions per game and 127 scrimmage yards per game, you’re looking at a player who you can bank on to score 15 to 20 points per week, regardless of if he scores a touchdown.

Can we count on this to continue? My answer for you is yes. Ekeler’s job security and role are not in question. This past off-season, he inked a four-year deal with more than half guaranteed to lead the Chargers backfield. There’s not much else on the Chargers roster that should make owners uncomfortable and Ekeler’s snap rates indicate as much. It’s also important to remember that he is now tied to an exciting rookie gun-slinger in Justin Herbert on a much-improved offense. While we only have a small sample size of the two playing together, Ekeler has averaged over 8.5 receptions and 24.5 PPR points per game.

The Trade Market

Over the past two weeks, I have been making trades left and right to acquire Ekeler prior to the playoffs. His market has been suppressed by his earlier injury as well as the emergence of many exciting rookies. However, with very little tread on his legs, Ekeler is a ‘young’ 25, and there is no reason to believe he cannot continue this elite production for several years to come.

That makes him an excellent buy low. Not only will he give you league-winner production for the playoffs, but unlike other playoff investments, Ekeler could continue to give you that production for years to come. To highlight what I mean by “buy low”, I’ve included four trades I recently made for him over the past two weeks.

David Montgomery and Devin Singletary for Ekeler
Late 2021 first-round pick, Late 2021 second-round pick for Ekeler and Michael Gallup
JK Dobbins for Ekeler
Drew Lock, Devin Singletary, Jalen Reagor, Darnell Mooney, and Darrynton Evans for Daniel Jones, Ekeler and Julio Jones

Conclusion

In Austin Ekeler you have a potential league-winner with an incredibly high floor available at a reasonable cost. I currently have him listed as my 13th-ranked dynasty running back, in the same tier as D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders, and Derrick Henry, all of whom are much more expensive to acquire. If you have a shot at your league’s championship and you don’t want to compromise your future, take a look at acquiring Ekeler.