Dynasty Panic Meter: Third Quarter
In this quarterly series, we take a look at some of the players who dynasty managers are either fretting over or in full-on panic mode about.
The goal here is to explore the stats, situations, and outlook to determine how to approach these under-performing players.
Feel free to explore the previous article here.
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
Issac Newton does not get mentioned much in dynasty circles, mostly because football wasn’t much of a thing in the 1700s. However, his third law of motion clearly states that what goes up, must, in fact, come back down. Jackson’s meteoric rise in production apparently is not exempt from this law.
Jackson stormed through the NFL during his 2019 campaign, earning him a well-deserved MVP title. His combined 4,333 yards and 43 total touchdowns made the decision easy. This cemented him as a high positional pick and depending on format, a high overall pick for dynasty squads.
Here is a look at Jackson’s stats through his first 10 games of the 2019 season.
For comparative purposes, here is the same range of games for the 2020 season.
While the pass attempts and completions are within the same realm, we see some glaring differences from the previous season’s production. Namely, he’s missing 310 passing yards, four passing scores, 206 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns but has added one more interception.
While many fantasy managers are certainly panicking at the downgrade in production, it should have, to some extent, been expected. The facet of his game that improved the most last season compared to his rookie season was his overall efficiency, to the point of being a discernable outlier.
Panic Meter Level: 5
Up to this point in the season, my panic level on Jackson is a middle-of-the-road five. What we are witnessing here is Jackson coming back to earth as opposed to occupying the fantasy stratosphere. Through the 2019 season, Jackson maintained a 9.0% touchdown rate, well above where even the most accurate passers typically maintain. Prior to the season, I wrote an article covering that rate to be an un-repeatable ceiling. At this point, he is maintaining a 5.4% touchdown rate, which is currently 14th in the NFL.
Jackson is 19th in passing touchdowns, 24th in passing yards, second in rushing yards, and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns. This is the area in which some panic is warranted. Being at or slightly below passing metrics should be expected from Jackson. He is not the most accurate passer, this was well known, just mildly forgotten after last season’s success. However, the expected rushing production is the facet that we expected to take the smallest hit.
Jackson remains a high-ceiling play under center based on the threat of his rushing prowess. While some developmental improvements to his passing game can occur, we have seen his ceiling. Now, we are witnessing his floor. The dwindling of his previous gaudy rushing totals combined with a return to the means in passing have made it more apparent.
Jackson is falling in dynasty rankings among the position. Think of it less as falling and more of settling into the range he should occupy. He is currently the QB3 in dynasty ADP and after this season could dip down to six or seven. Based on a full season of what appears to be his floor-play, this seems reasonable when coupled with his week-winning upside.
Joe Mixon, RB CIN
Mixon has remained a polarizing running back for fantasy purposes. There are some who seem very passionate in the Twitter-sphere that he is one of the best and most underrated backs in the NFL. Then there are those who simply believe he’s an above-average back who receives more hype than what his fantasy production can cover.
Instead of waging a war with one side of the other, let’s take a statistical look at past production versus what this season has brought.
*Courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Due to his current injury, season-long statistics do not paint an accurate picture, so we are going to break things down more from a per-game basis.
In the last two seasons combined, Mixon is averaging 76 yards at 4.5 yards per carry, 3.5 targets for 20.8 receiving yards per game.
In six games played this season, he is averaging 71.3 yards, 3.59 yards per carry, 4.3 targets for 23 yards per game.
At a cursory glance, the statistical average paints a picture of his near-expected outcome. What these stats do not relay, is that 71.3 yards-per-game average is bolstered by a week four game where he thrashed the Jaguars for 151 rushing yards and two of his three total rushing touchdowns on the season. If that game is removed, he would be averaging 55.4 yards per game at 2.9 yards per carry.
Mixon is averaging 19.8 rushing attempts and 4.3 targets per game. This is the kind of volume fantasy managers drool over in a running back landscape littered with committees.
Panic Meter Level: 6
I do not feel comfortable heaping the entirety of the blame on Mixon’s shoulders, therefore the panic meter level here is a six. At the same time, I cannot exonerate him from shouldering some of the disappointments this season has brought. The Bengals offensive line is a mess and has already cost them their number-one overall pick in Joe Burrow.
Mixon has also shown a proclivity to start slow and finish strong. Here are his 2020 stats for the first six games.
Here, we have his first six games from the 2019 season.
Mixon turned it on the last half of the 2019 season and finished as the RB13 in .5 scoring.
With the season-ending injury to Burrow, it is long overdue for the Bengals to spend some time and money investing in that offensive line, which benefits Mixon as well.
Mixon maintains a three-down skill-set in an offense that should be trying to balance to the run to pass splits. If the manager in your league is panicking or in win-now mode, it’s worth poking them for a possible trade. With his season still murky, it could be an investment for the future.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL
This was not intentionally meant to be the Ravens edition of the Panic Meter series. Regardless, there are plenty of managers who are less than happy with the production from Brown this season.
His rookie 2019 season saw him play in 14 games, 71 targets, 46 receptions, for 584 yards and seven touchdowns. Through ten games this season, he has 59 targets, 32 receptions, for 431 yards, and just two touchdowns. His growth was expected to be in lock-step with Lamar Jackson.
In 2019, Brown was averaging 41.7 yards per contest and only had one game where he eclipsed the 100-yard mark. Through week 11 of the current season, he is averaging 43.1 yards per game and has, you guessed it, one game of over 100 yards.
The lack of touchdowns is the biggest factor for dynasty managers slapping the panic button. The expectation was just as much on Brown as it was on Jackson. Many were expecting these two to simply pick up where they left off from last season.
Panic Meter Level: 8
Brown comes in at panic meter level eight for me. He entered the season as the WR34 based on DLF Rankings. At the cost of acquisition, he should have landed in the weekly WR3 conversation. Instead, he feels like a weekly struggle to put him into starting lineups, especially after dropping a zero on three targets against the Titans.
To this point in the season, Brown has four targets within the 20-yard line. Willie Snead has eight. Brown was able to capitalize on Jackson’s outlier touchdown percentage and neither has been able to repeat that success. Now he is operating on a 12% red zone target share.
Brown could easily eclipse his targets, receptions, and receiving yards from his rookie season, but will fail to hit the touchdown mark. In PPR formats, he feels more like a limited upside flex play than anything else. He still has few games to try to tack on a couple of more scores. A disappointing sophomore campaign will make him more difficult to trade away for anything resembling acquisition cost. He’s best packaged with other assets for managers looking to shed their rosters of the receiver formally known as Hollywood Brown.
Zach Ertz, TE PHI
Ertz has enjoyed a long run among the projected top-ten tight ends for several seasons. For a position often void of consistent production, Ertz has been a stalwart of volume. He has seen 100 or more targets each season going back to 2015. During that span, he finished with 800 or more receiving yards and averaging 5.6 touchdowns per season.
Having concluded week 12 of the 2020 season, that streak looks to be in danger of being broken. Ertz has been out since week six with a high-ankle sprain. Prior to that, he was averaging 7.5 targets and 29.6 receiving yards per game. The targets were there, but the production was not. Largely based on the quality of the targets from a still struggling Carson Wentz.
In six games, Ertz has only cleared 50 or more receiving yards once. Last season, he beat that mark in 11 games.
Panic Meter Level: 6
Ertz saunters in at a panic meter level of six. Ertz is 30 years old but has a healthy contract that keeps him in Philly until 2022. He has not been an oft-injured player and remains a consistent, reliable target in Doug Pederson’s offense. The three biggest factors that could lead to any real worry is Wentz’s struggles as a passer, Dallas Goedert’s role increasing, and him being on the wrong side of 30 years old.
Ertz still has gas in the tank and a secure volume-based role in this offense. While I’m not panicking on his ability to remain a productive piece, there is something to be said about trading him now while those factors are still present. If Ertz finishes the season strong, I would be looking to move him while that value is still there. The window is closing for being able to move him at a rewarding cost.
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