Running Back Opportunity Share Report: Week Eight
Welcome back to the Running Back Opportunity Share Report, the fourth segment in this weekly series examining how teams are deploying their running backs. Volume is king for running backs in fantasy football. Please refer to week five’s article for a review on the importance of volume for running backs.
What is RB Opportunity Share?
RB Opportunity Share is calculated by combining a player’s carries and targets and dividing them by the team’s total non-quarterback carries and running back targets.* This provides a single metric to illustrate the percentage of the team running back opportunities a player is receiving.
Bellcow Report
For this series, bellcow running backs will be defined as running backs with an Opportunity Share greater than or equal to 70 percent.
Blue Chips: Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, James Conner, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara.
Committee Backfields: New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Los Angeles Chargers.
Next Man Up: Giovani Bernard, Jamaal Williams, Boston Scott, DeeJay Dallas, and Mike Davis.
Medical Tent: Chris Carson, Myles Gaskin, Carlos Hyde, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, and Devonta Freeman
Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
After not playing the past two weeks with an injury and a bye week, Cook returned to fantasy action with a bang. He had an 89.2 percent Opportunity Share (second) with 30 rush attempts for 163 yards and three touchdowns. Cook added two receptions on three targets for 63 yards and another score to finish as the fantasy RB1 this week.
Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect this friendly of a game-script for Cook each week but this is how the Vikings want to play offense. Minnesota ran the ball on 69.3 percent of their plays against the Packers and Football Outsiders’ third-worst defense. Cook is averaging a 77.4 percent Opportunity Share (fifth) on the season outside of his injury-shortened week five.
In last week’s column, I mentioned how useful scrimmage yards per play is at predicting fantasy points for running backs. Cook’s 4.35 yards per play is the best weekly total for this metric on the season beating Derrick Henry’s week six 3.52 yards per play by 0.83 yards per play! Impressive performance this week from Cook who remains a weekly difference-maker in fantasy football.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Volume isn’t always flashy but it’s the life-blood of fantasy running backs. Montgomery led all running backs in Opportunity Share at 96.3 percent on 21 scoreless attempts for 89 yards. Montgomery stayed active in the passing game catching two of five targets for another 16 yards. He is now tied for fourth in running back targets and has a healthy 12.2 percent target share on the season.
Montgomery has been “unlucky” in the touchdown department this season. He’s averaging 442 rush yards per touchdown and the league average is approximately 140 rush yards per touchdown. He won’t necessarily score more touchdowns to balance this out, but his opportunity suggests he should score more than one rushing touchdown in the second half of the season.
Through eight games, Montgomery is the fantasy RB27 in PPG but his volume makes him a solid RB2 for the rest of the season. He hasn’t scored less than 14.1 points or had less than an 81.0 Opportunity Share since Tarik Cohen was lost for the season.
James Conner, RB PIT
Conner enjoyed his second consecutive week with over an 80.0 percent Opportunity Share in week eight. He had an 85.7 percent Opportunity Share (fourth) on 15 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore’s league-leading rush defense according to Football Outsiders. Connor also caught all three of his targets for an additional 13 yards through the air. The touchdown saved his fantasy week and he finished as the fantasy RB12 on the week.
Conner improved to fantasy RB13 in PPG on the season and has been relatively balanced on the season. He’s tenth in rushing yards, tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns, and tied for 26th in targets. Conner is a borderline top-12 fantasy running back for the rest of the season.
Kareem Hunt, RB CLE
Week eight is not what fantasy managers were expecting for Hunt against the Las Vegas Raiders. He had an 81.0 percent Opportunity Share (fifth) and it was his second week in a row with over 80.0 percent of the opportunities in Cleveland. Hunt rushed for 66 yards on 14 attempts but failed to score a touchdown in week eight.
The true disappointment for Hunt has been his lack of targets. He averaged almost five targets per game in 2019. In 2020, without Nick Chubb for the last four games, Hunt is averaging a frustrating 3.1 targets per game. His receiving floor is what made him so attractive to start the season.
Underwhelming weeks aren’t uncommon for top fantasy running backs. Hunt is still the fantasy RB6 in 2020 and looks to rebound after Cleveland’s week nine bye.
Josh Jacobs, RB LV
Jacobs bounced back in week eight after being unexpectedly phased out during a blowout loss in week seven. He had a 76.2 percent Opportunity Share (eighth) on his season-high 31 carries for 128 yards and zero touchdowns. Jacobs failed to catch his only target from Derek Carr.
Jacobs’ box score emphasizes how important the receiving game is for fantasy running backs and how touchdown-dependent one-dimensional running backs can be in fantasy. Despite finishing with 128 all-purpose yards he didn’t quite live up to expectations. Jacobs should have scored 24.9 fantasy points given his opportunity (12.1 points below expectation) according to Rotoviz’s Expected Points Model.
This was his first game under three targets and fantasy managers should remain hopeful Jacobs’ workhorse-role continues to pay dividends in the second half of the season. After all, an RB19 finish on the week is a respectable floor for fantasy football’s overall RB11 on the season.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Hello, I’d like everyone to meet the 2020 overall fantasy RB1. No touchdowns in week eight for Kamara, no problem. He had a 71.4 percent Opportunity Share (tenth) on 12 attempts for 67 yards. Not dissimilar to Kareem Hunt’s rushing stat line this week. Kamara’s nine receptions on 13 targets for 96 yards is what separates him from the rest of the running backs in fantasy. Kamara’s 9.4 targets per game are first in the NFL for running backs and he is averaging 3.4 more targets than the next closest back (Ezekiel Elliot).
Kamara’s 59.8 percent Opportunity Share (18th) in 2020 could mislead fantasy managers into thinking Kamara isn’t getting opportunities requisite of a top fantasy back. However, a useful stat in my weekly database is Weighted Opportunity. Using Scott Barret’s research that targets are worth 2.74 more than carries, I adjust each running back’s opportunity. Kamara’s heavy receiving volume elevates him to first in this metric with 155.4 weighted opportunities. Another useful tool to supplement Opportunity Share.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
There are several trains of thought on how fantasy players should view Elliott’s drastic reduction in workload. One reasonable argument is he’s in the dog house after two fumbles on back to back drives in week six. But he took several snaps from the wildcat formation and if the coaching staff didn’t trust him it wouldn’t make sense to have him taking several direct snaps.
Another speculation could be Zeke’s recent usage is how the Cowboys are looking to use him the rest of the season without Dak Prescott. The reality is Elliott’s Opportunity Share has decreased steadily since week three. Regardless, things have not been great for Zeke in the last few games.
Elliott had a 63.6 percent Opportunity Share (12th) in week eight on 19 attempts for 63 yards and no touchdowns. In his second game without Prescott, Zeke underwhelmed through the air catching only one of two targets for ten yards. Additionally, the immediate future looks bleak for Zeke as Andy Dalton was placed on the Covid-19 list.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
On the surface, week eight seems like a typical Henry performance. He carried the ball 18 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. Looking closer at the Titans’ running back usage it could have been a much bigger day for Henry. He had a season-low 63.3 percent Opportunity Share (14th) and saw D’Onta Foreman and Jeremy McNichols combine for nine carries and 86 yards. Usually, those carries go to Henry. It’s also the second consecutive game the Titans trailed by double digits for large portions of the game.
Normally, his 17.2 fantasy points and fantasy RB7 fantasy finish aren’t viewed as a negative but upon further inspection several fantasy points were left on the board for Henry in this game.
Todd Gurley, RB ATL
Gurley’s opportunity dipped abruptly in week eight after not touching the ball for a long stretch during the first half. Gurley had averaged a 66.7 percent Opportunity Share and 17.4 Weighted Opportunities over his past three games. He had his second-lowest Opportunity Share this season at 52.9 percent (18th) and his lowest Weighted Opportunities with 10.4. It was another week where Guley was saved by a touchdown to go along with his 18 carries for 46 yards.
Should fantasy managers be worried about Gurley going forward? His league-leading ten rushing touchdowns suggest he should be fine. His peripherals are a little more worrisome. He leads the league in the percentage of his fantasy points coming from touchdowns (38 percent) and has the highest rate of rush yards per touchdown (64.8). If Gurley’s opportunities stay around his week eight totals things could be trending in the wrong direction for the fantasy RB7 on the season.
Committee Backfields
New England Patriots
For three of the Patriots’ last four games, Damien Harris has been the primary running back. He’s averaged a 43.8 percent Opportunity Share over this span. When he’s led the backfield in opportunities, he’s led in fantasy scoring. Harris carried the ball 16 times for 102 yards and a touchdown making him the fantasy RB9 in week eight. This is Harris’ second time with over 100 yards rushing on the season and Harris has looked like a legitimate two-down NFL running back.
Harris’ opportunity could be shifting again as Sony Michel should be returning from the Covid-19 list soon. James White and Rex Burkhead are still active in this backfield and both had at least a 20 percent Opportunity Share in week eight. Even if Harris continues to emerge in this backfield, New England’s lackluster offensive output and Cam Newton’s rushing ability make Harris difficult to trust in fantasy lineups. A few more games from the second-year running back should give fantasy managers a few more data points to see if he’s worth acquiring via trade.
Denver Broncos
Week eight was the first week Denver had both a healthy Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay. Gordon led the backfield with a 62.5 percent Opportunity Share while Lindsay saw a 37.5 percent Opportunity Share. Gordon led Lindsay in Weighted Opportunities 15.8 to 8.3. Despite this Lindsay outscored Gordon 15.6 to 10.7 fantasy points. Lindsay scored 8.5 fantasy points over expected while Gordon slightly underperformed scoring 2.7 fantasy points under expectation based on their opportunities.
From a raw stats lens, Gordon had eight attempts for 26 yards and no touchdowns while Lindsay had six attempts for 83 yards and a score. Gordon secured six of seven targets for 21 yards and Lindsay caught one of three targets for three yards. Gordon’s 18.4 percent target share compared to Lindsay’s 7.9 percent should keep his overall opportunities safe going forward. However, if Lindsay remains this efficient on the ground this could become more of a true 50-50 split in Denver.
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift’s 5.3 fantasy points in a game where Detroit trailed for the majority of the game is underwhelming at best. On a positive note, week eight was the third week in a row Swift has led Detroit in Opportunity Share. Swift had a 52.6 percent Opportunity share compared to Adrian Peterson’s 31.6 percent and Kerryon Johnson’s 10.5 percent Opportunity Shares.
Swift had four targets while Peterson and Johnson combined for three targets in week eight. Overall, none of the Lions’ running backs did much as they combined for 17 touches for 50 yards on the day. After being shut out in week seven, Johnson did flash as he caught both of his targets for 15 yards and a score. Fantasy managers are hopeful this is just a blip in the eventual backfield takeover for Swift.
Baltimore Ravens
Week eight was a true 50-50 split for JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards as they both had a 50.0 percent Opportunity Share with Mark Ingram sidelined with an injury. Dobbins had 15 attempts for 113 yards while Edwards rushed 16 times for 87 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins caught one of two targets for eight yards while Edwards went catch-less on his lone target. Edwards finished as the fantasy RB13 and Dobbins as the fantasy RB18. Both players performed well according to their opportunity.
Fantasy managers expecting an opportunity bump after an efficient day for Dobbins need to realize Edwards is playing well and this most likely will remain a committee backfield when Ingram returns from injury.
Buffalo Bills
In last week’s column, I outlined how things were trending in the wrong direction for Devin Singletary. Singletary tripled Zack Moss in opportunity in week six and saw his lead in Opportunity Share shrink to 54.2 percent over Moss’ 41.7 percent in week seven. In week eight the Bills’ backfield was an even split with both backs getting a 50.0 percent Opportunity Share.
Singletary had 15 attempts for 86 yards while Moss carried the ball 14 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns. Moss failed to catch his only target while Singletary caught his only target for eight yards.
Moss finished as the fantasy RB5 and Singletary was the fantasy RB23. Both running backs played well but Moss’s role could prove to be more valuable if he continues to split the opportunities but sees the bulk of the red zone work as he did in week eight.
Kansas City Chiefs
It’s tough to find actionable information in a game against the Jets in which the outcome was never really in doubt. One thing is clear – the weeks where Clyde Edwards-Helaire had over a 75.0 percent Opportunity Share seem unlikely for the rest of 2020.
In week eight Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell had a 33.3 percent Opportunity Share. Edwards-Helaire and Bell both had nine opportunities while Bell outgained Edwards-Helaire 38 to 31 yards. Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson saw action late in this game keeping Bell and CEH’s volume lower than what should be expected in the future. On the limited data-points we have over the last few weeks, it appears the Kansas City backfield is now a true committee.
Indianapolis Colts
Many fantasy managers expected week eight to be a smash spot for Jonathan Taylor. His opportunities had been trending up in the previous three weeks before the bye week, but it all unraveled for him against the Raiders.
Taylor had a season-low Opportunity Share of 30.4 percent on 11 carries for 22 scoreless yards. Meanwhile, after having three total opportunities in the previous two weeks, Jordan Wilkins exploded for a 45.7 percent Opportunity Share on 20 attempts for 89 yards and a touchdown. Wilkins also reeled in his one target for 24 yards. Plus, Nyheim Hines had his second-lowest Opportunity Share of 21.7 percent on the week. He rushed the ball five times for eight yards but caught three of five targets for 54 yards and two impressive touchdowns.
The narrative seems to be Taylor isn’t good at football. This narrative is false. Week eight was Taylor’s first poor performance on the season. It’s triggering a strong emotional response because of the high expectations many people (including myself) had for him coming out of the bye. Taylor has averaged 1.6 fantasy points over expected given his opportunity per Rotoviz’s Fantasy Expected Points Model. This week he scored 8.5 points below expectations and it was his first truly bad week. Taylor had been performing slightly above average in scrimmage yards per team play prior to this week as well.
It will be interesting to see how the Colts handle Taylor moving forward. If he slides back into his normal role this should allow everyone to exhale. It could be a long uphill battle for Taylor if Wilkins has earned a bigger after a breakout performance in week eight.
New York Jets
Lamical Perine and Frank Gore both had a 41.7 percent Opportunity Share in week eight. Perine rushed for 27 yards on eight carries while Gore had ten attempts for 30 yards. Gore wasn’t targeted in the passing game and Perine caught both of his targets for six yards. In a pass-friendly matchup, Perine was only targeted once and this drastically lowers his weekly floor if this repeats itself in the second half of the season. Ultimately, this is a committee backfield in one of the worst offenses in football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Things continue to get worse for Ronald Jones’ volume in Tampa Bay. He fumbled the ball and watched Leonard Fournette dominate the Opportunity Share 63.6 percent to 33.3 percent. Fortunately for Rojo truthers, Fournette did little with his extra opportunity.
Fournette had 15 attempts for 52 yards and caught three of six targets for nineteen additional yards. Jones rushed for 23 yards on seven carries and converted all four of his targets for 23 yards. Fournette most likely will be the primary back in a 55-45 or 60-40 split going forward.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson left week eight’s matchup shortly before halftime with a thigh injury but Sean McVay indicated he should be good to go for week ten after the bye. When Henderson went down, Cam Akers stepped back into the running back rotation with Malcolm Brown. This was Akers’ first meaningful reps, outside of garbage time carries in week five and three carries in week two, since the season opener.
Malcolm Brown led the way with a 36.4 percent Opportunity Share on ten carries for 40 yards while also catching both of his targets for 17 yards. Akers was rather pedestrian gaining 35 yards on nine carries but did have an important reception for 19 receiving yards and an overall 30.3 Opportunity Share.
Nothing from week eight suggests this isn’t Henderson’s backfield coming out of the bye but Akers could have earned his way back into the rotation.
San Francisco 49ers
Tevin Coleman returned from a five-week injury last week and was enjoying a little success accumulating 20 yards on the three carries. Unfortunately, Coleman suffered a knee injury and has already been ruled out for week nine. As of Wednesday evening, Coleman hasn’t been placed on IR. Hopefully, this is just a short-term injury.
JaMycal Hasty was the primary back handling a 52.0 Opportunity Share but failed to take advantage of it. He rushed 12 times for 29 yards and a score and only had one catch for two yards. The rushing touchdown did make Hasty the fantasy RB24 for week eight and he should remain the primary back until other running backs return from their injuries.
Jerick McKinnon also scored a rushing touchdown despite gaining negative one yard on three attempts. McKinnon flashed through the air catching all four of his targets for 40 yards. If McKinnon can maintain a decent target share week to week it would make him an option at flex for fantasy teams dealing with injuries and bye weeks. Kyle Shanahan’s week seven comments about managing McKinnon’s workload and this week’s usage imply this is how the 49ers prefer to use him going forward.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Jackson functioned as the primary back in week eight with a 45.8 percent Opportunity Share. He had a season-high 17 rush attempts for a respectable 89 yards and caught three of five targets for 53 additional yards. He appears to be first in line for opportunities in the Chargers’ backfield until Austin Ekeler returns from injury.
The Chargers added Troymaine Pope to the 53-man roster on Saturday before their week eight matchup with the Broncos. Pope had very respectable and had a 35.4 percent Opportunity Share. Pope impressed gaining 67 yards on ten rush attempts while also catching five of seven targets for 28 yards. He surprisingly jumped rookie Joshua Kelley in the running back pecking order with a 35.4 percent Opportunity Share.
Kelley was third in line with a 16.7 percent Opportunity Share on seven carries for 32 yards and a catch for negative seven yards. Fantasy managers hoping to slot Kelley into their flex might need to rethink things in the upcoming weeks to see how the Chargers’ opportunities shake out. In any case, this is not a positive development for Kelley who had averaged a 42.8 percent Opportunity Share over the first seven weeks of the season.
Next Man Up
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
The tilt was real at the time in week eight for Bernard’s fantasy managers as Samaje Perine had ten carries for 32 yards and a touchdown. Bernard eventually proved he’s a reliable plug and play replacement for Joe Mixon for the second consecutive week. He totaled 18 touches for 78 yards and two touchdowns behind a 55.9 percent Opportunity Share.
Bernard could be relegated to a backup role if Mixon returns from his injury following the Bengals week nine bye. As of Wednesday evening, there hadn’t been any updates on Mixon’s health.
Jamaal Williams, RB GB
Williams posted another impressive week with Aaron Jones sidelined with a calf injury. Williams had a 73.3 percent Opportunity Share (ninth) rushing for 75 yards on 16 carries and caught all six of his targets for 27 yards.
As of late Wednesday night, the Packers and 49ers Thursday Night Football game was still on schedule for Thursday. If the game is played Thursday, Williams will be out because he was considered a close contact with AJ Dillon who was recently diagnosed with Covid-19. But if the game is rescheduled Williams or Jones could both be active for the Packers’ week nine matchup.
According to the latest reports, Jones is another true game-time decision. This could leave Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin as the only healthy backs available to suit up for week nine.
Boston Scott, RB PHI
Scott handled the majority of the work for the Eagles in week eight after Miles Sanders was out for the second straight game with a knee injury. Scott had a 65.4 percent Opportunity Share rushing for 70 yards on 15 attempts and caught his two targets for nine yards. Philadelphia has a bye week this week but Sanders should resume his bellcow role in week ten according to original injury estimates. Scott was a solid flex option for the past two games for fantasy managers.
DeeJay Dallas, RB SEA
Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde were unable to suit up in week eight allowing Dallas to claim a 77.8 percent Opportunity Share (seventh). The rookie had a respectable day against San Francisco’s seventh-ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders totaling 59 yards and a touchdown on 20 touches. Dallas finished as the fantasy RB15 on the week and if Carson or Hyde miss any time, he has proven to be an adequate replacement.
Mike Davis, RB CAR
In what appears to be Davis’ final game filling in for Christian McCaffrey, Davis didn’t quite live up to expectations against the Atlanta defense he torched earlier this season. He had an 88.2 percent Opportunity Share gaining 66 yards on 13 attempts while catching one of two targets for eleven yards. Davis filled in admirably for McCaffrey and could see a few more touches than he did prior to CMC leaving with an injury.
Medical Tent
Myles Gaskin, RB MIA
Don’t look now but Myles Gaskin is the fantasy RB17 on the season and he’s had three consecutive weeks with over a 70.0 percent Opportunity Share. In those three weeks, he’s finished as the RB8, RB7, and RB17. This week Gaskin had an 80.0 percent Opportunity Share on 18 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown. He also earned six targets, catching three of them for 16 yards.
Unfortunately, according to reports, Gaskin has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain and will miss three weeks. Expect Matt Breida and newly acquired DeAndre Washington to fill-in during his absence.
Chris Carson, RB SEA
Carson missed week eight with a mid-foot sprain and will test his foot in practice on Friday to see if he can play against the Bills. Usually, foot-sprains are a multi-week injury and Carson could end up missing another week.
Carlos Hyde, RB SEA
Hyde sat out week eight with a hamstring injury and Pete Carroll suggested they won’t be able to test the injury until later this week. Hyde could also miss another week with an injury but fantasy managers will have more information on Friday.
Kenyan Drake, RB ARI
Drake was carted off the field in week seven with an ankle injury but Kliff Kingsbury stated his injury wasn’t like the Cardinals’ medical staff originally thought. Currently, he is labeled day to day but it would be a surprise if Drake can suit up in week nine. Chase Edmonds should be in for a significant workload if Drake sits this week.
Devonta Freeman, RB NYG
Freeman missed week eight with an ankle injury and didn’t practice on Wednesday. More information about his status will become available as the week progresses but the Giants might be forced to suit up Alfred Morris, Wayne Gallman, and Dion Lewis again this week.
This wraps up the RB Opportunity Share Report for week eight. The stats used in this article can be found in my free spreadsheet here. Thank you to ESPN.com, Football Outsiders, NFLGSIS.com, and Pro-Football-Reference.com for the stats and information provided in this article.
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*Some sites use only running back carries instead of non-quarterback carries. Due to an increased number of designed wide receiver and tight end runs in today’s NFL non-running back carries presents a more complete picture of a running back’s opportunity. If there was a better and more readily available stat for quarterback designed runs they would be included as well.
You can find my free spreadsheets and databases in my pinned tweet on Twitter. Please DM me with any questions or for help with Excel/Google Sheets.
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