IDP Waiver Wire: Week 13
Notable IDP Assets on Bye this week:
DL: Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Burns
LB: Lavonte David, Devin White
DB: Jeremy Chinn, Antoine Winfield Jr., Jamel Dean
Over the course of this season, my goal has been to provide one of two things: either finding guys that are either long-term dynasty stashes/investments OR quality one-week rentals. This week, however, I’m going to take a slight detour down another path. This week, my IDP waiver wire suggestions are recommended explicitly based on their matchups between weeks 13 and 14 combined, in case you are in need of a final starting piece or are looking for a flier option to try to get you past that #1 seed in the first round of the playoffs!
To uncover these players, I come up with suggestions going down two main avenues- The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 16 Hits, 13 Average, 11 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 26 Hits, 14 Average, 11 Busts (Dunlap pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week 13 Observations
- Tyrell Adams had me in a comatose state before one drop of gravy hit my tongue. He has easily been the best pickup in all of my dynasty leagues this season, and his performance against Detroit stands out above the rest. He dropped an easy interception, but I don’t think anyone’s complaining (except for people who don’t read this article).
- Justin Reid has come away with sacks in back to back games now. Romeo Crennel has been seriously impressive since taking over as interim head coach, and I hope he continues to use Reid in a Jamal Adams-lite role. His value has skyrocketed since the change.
- Cole Holcomb has officially stamped himself as the best Washington linebacker to own in IDP leagues. Even with Ezekiel Elliott limited, Holcomb still finished with ten tackles and a half-sack on the night.
- I do not know how Foyesade Oluokun has managed to come away with a reliable score for each of the past five weeks when his tackle numbers have been all over the place. He needs a splash play to be worth a start, but how risky are you feeling come playoff time?
- Nick Vigil broke out for the first time this season with eight tackles, but do not rush to the waiver wire to grab him. He will return to the bench when Kyzir White is off the COVID-19 list.
- JOEY. BOSA. It’s scary to think he should’ve had a fourth sack and a forced fumble on top of his massive day. I started him and Tyrell Adams in one of my leagues, and yes, I won.
- Just a reminder for those of you getting comfortable with Khari Willis in your starting roster: he will be useless in 2021 if he stays in Indianapolis, as this is still Malik Hooker’s job to lose.
- Guessing who will prevail out of the Washington Football Team’s pass-rushing unit is simply a game of roulette at this point. Play at your own risk.
- If you started Jeremy Chinn after three straight disappointing matchups, you are just crazy enough to deserve some props on his performance yesterday! Some may say you snuck bye by your Chinny Chinn Chinn…….
- Chase Winovich is still rolling. Whatever slowed him down in the middle of the season is officially behind him.
- Emmanuel Ogbah failed to come away with a sack for a second straight week in another favorable matchup, but I’m not panicking yet.
Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters who have tough matchups ahead in week 13 who you MAY consider benching for a dart throw found below:
DL: Kenny Clark, Maxx Crosby, Chase Young
LB: Robert Spillane, Vince Williams, Jerome Baker, Kenneth Murray Jr.
DB: Chuck Clark, Antoine Winfield, Darius Slay
Good luck this week! I want to wish you the absolute best of luck heading into what is likely your final regular-season matchup. Football has been an incredible escape from the trials plaguing our country over the past three months, and it will be greatly missed when the season ends in the blink of an eye.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
As always, here are the top 25 defenders in terms of Disruption Score entering week 12 (minimum 20 tackles). Household name Trey Hendrickson (…kidding) surpassed TJ Watt after another great game last week, and despite the great production across the board in this picture, this list has a few names of some IDP candidates that may still be on your waiver wire. If you are thinking to yourself, “my defensive lineman has been playing well lately, but is it sustainable?” look no further than this metric. If you thought to yourself “Joey Bosa is third on this list, but he hasn’t done hardly anything by his standards…when will he get back on track?” well, there’s your answer. If you read last week and plugged Nicholas Morrow into your lineup, *this* metric is what uncovered his breakout matchup!
Defensive Line
Everson Griffen, DE DET (Season Disruption Score: 22.45 ~ DL #29 overall)
Watch the situation around Trey Flowers’ impending return closely, but considering he has not yet been activated off IR (and therefore has not even shown up on the injury report as a limited participant) I think there is a good chance Griffen gets a full workload once again next week against the Bears. If you watched the Packers-Bears game for even five minutes last night, odds are you saw Mitchell Trubisky take a sack. Griffen has been a great midseason addition for this struggling team, and I expect him to come home with a sack barring a Flowers return to action.
David Onyemata, DT NOS (Season Disruption Score: 41.28 ~ DL #6 overall)
Cameron Jordan is an all-pro defensive end. Trey Hendrickson leads the league in sacks. The Saints traded a plethora of draft picks to acquire Marcus Davenport in the first round just two years ago. Yet among all those guys, Onyemata is one of the players making a big name for himself along that line in 2020, as he is ninth overall in Disruption Score this season. You really couldn’t expect much out of him if you played him against the QB-less Broncos yesterday, but if you are in a DT-featured league and are in need of someone to provide some serious upside, Onyemata is your guy. He racked up 13 tackles and three sacks in the month of November, proving he is hitting his stride when you need him most. Plug him in your DT spot should you find yourself in need, but he isn’t worth putting into a DE/EDGE roster spot considering the competition for sacks on his own team.
Linebacker
Troy Reeder, LB LVR (Disruption Score: 4.99 ~ LB #19 overall)
With Micah Kiser on IR for the next two matchups at least, Troy Reeder is a top-eight LB option. In his two games filling in for Kiser thus far, Reeder has amassed an incredible 26 tackles and three sacks! That kind of production was better than what Kiser was doing in his place, but it’s due to his perfect mixture of athletic ability and the result of opposing offenses exploiting him as a weakness. If your league mates were caught sleeping in a food coma this week, be sure to pounce and grab Reeder ASAP Wednesday morning. He could very well be the reason you win your league.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Denico Autry, DE IND (Week 13 @ Houston, Week 14 @ Las Vegas)
Indianapolis has been able to generate a meaningful pass rush unit, and few opponents are easier to attack in the trenches than Houston right now. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 30 times this season, and even in their drubbing of the Lions, Detroit was able to come away with two sacks of their own. Autry has proven to have a nice tackle floor as a failsafe (should DeForest Buckner steal most of the sack opportunities upon his return), and was on a nice sack streak before falling victim to the COVID-19/Reserve list. I don’t mind taking a flier on him for the next few weeks against the likes of Tytus Howard and Sam Young.
Stephon Tuitt, DE PIT (Week 13 vs. Washington, Week 14 @ Buffalo)
If Tuitt is somehow still on your IDP waiver wire, that should end now. I’ll pretend like my heart isn’t hurting when you ignored me four weeks ago, and we can ride on Tuitt’s back into the sunset (provided he get some sack luck) in the first round of the playoffs.
Linebacker
BJ Goodson, LB CLE (Week 13 @ Tennessee, Week 14 vs. Baltimore)
I’m doubling down on this take from last week! It’s been hard to rely on any Browns linebacker to be a solid starter this year; however, this week may be the rare exception to actually start one with confidence. Tennessee and Baltimore rank 11th and sixth, respectively, in terms of points surrendered to opposing linebackers. Goodson has been the lone usable linebacker up to this point on that team, but considering the upcoming matchups and the Browns’ relentless push toward a playoff berth, I’d say he is nearly a lock for double-digit tackles in these games, with the possibility of an interception on top of that. Roll Goodson out if you’ve been stashing him and watch the points roll in.
Rashaan Evans, LB TEN (Week 13 vs. Cleveland, Week 14 @ Jacksonville)
I am a bit cautious about this recommendation after his letdown against the Colts, but that was admittedly a tough matchup for Evans. Things look much brighter for him heading into matchups against two extremely run-heavy teams, with virtually no viable competition to steal tackles away from him with Jayon Brown out. I’d start him as a high-end LB3/low-end LB2, but a low likelihood of coming away with a splash play.
Defensive Backs
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB ARI (Week 13 vs. Los Angeles Rams, Week 14 @ New York Giants)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Kirkpatrick is someone who could have that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on in case the splash play doesn’t come through regardless. He has 23 tackles over the past four weeks, but has also come away with three interceptions in his past five games. Jared Goff and *checks notes* Colt McCoy seem like prime pick-six candidates this point in the season, and the Cardinals are needing to play their absolute best football right away. Start Kirkpatrick and just pray Goff and McCoy give you that classic “C’mon man!” plays they’ve been known to give up.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
