Rookie Report Card: Joe Burrow and JK Dobbins

Dan Meylor

Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, rookie season potential, and long term upside.

The series continues with a look at two of the most high-profile rookies coming into the season, Joe Burrow and JK Dobbins.

Joe Burrow, QB CIN

Week 11 Stats: 22/34 passing, 203 yards, one touchdown, two carries, 12 rushing yards

By now everybody knows the story of Burrow’s rise from overshadowed backup at Ohio State to Heisman Trophy winner and National champion at LSU. Personally, Burrow will forever be the player who I was convinced – after watching him play once – he’d be an NFL star, but didn’t take the necessary steps to get him everywhere possible.

Playing in a half-dozen devy leagues, I try to keep a close eye out for the next big thing and I saw it on New Year’s Day in 2019 when Burrow torched the undefeated UCF Knights to the tune of 394 yards and four touchdown passes in route to a Fiesta Bowl MVP. After a rocky start in that game, he got hot, throwing accurate slants and digs and feathering perfect rainbow passes for long touchdowns. I walked away from the performance thinking I needed to get him all my super-flex devy drafts the next summer.

I guess I forgot.

Watching him in his senior season for the Tigers was a treat for most but as soon as he started his assault on the SEC, I was filled with regret. He blazed through his schedule, throwing for more than 5,600 yards and tossing 60 touchdowns while adding 368 rushing yards and five more scores on the ground. Showing incredible finesse on throws down the field, enough arm strength to stick the ball between defenders and eye-popping anticipation to throw receivers open, he exited 2019 as the clear top pick in both the NFL Draft and dynasty super-flex rookie drafts.

Although there were some concerned about his landing in Cincinnati, Burrow hit the ground running as a rookie – already winning as many games this season as last year’s Bengals team had and being on pace to break Andrew Luck’s rookie passing records for yards (4,374) and 300-yard passing games (6). He’s been decisive, aggressive and accurate – which wasn’t much of a surprise to anybody that saw him play at LSU.

Unfortunately, Burrow’s rookie season came to an abrupt end on Sunday when he was hit low in the pocket after releasing a pass, bending his left knee awkwardly and tearing his ACL and MCL along with what has been reported as “other structural issues”, which will not only end his year but also put an on-time start to 2021 in jeopardy.

At this point, dynasty managers are left wondering what’s ahead for their QB1 – who is already ranked in the top-eight by most dynasty rankers. NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo tweeted this week Burrow suffered… “a multi-ligament injury like Carson Wentz had a few years ago. He got hurt on Dec 10 and missed the first two games the following year” which paints a picture for how long Burrow will be out.

Nevertheless, dynasty managers (particularly those in super-flex leagues) should be acting swiftly. Burrow’s injury may crack the trade door open ever so slightly if he happens to be on a contending team’s roster. A savvy manager might offer a veteran stud like Aaron Rodgers along with a draft pick or another useful “win now” piece in an attempt to pry Burrow away.

Although it’s going to be a while before we see Burrow throwing passes again, he’s without a doubt established himself as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league and this bump in the road is unlikely to keep him from his high-end QB1 upside. Even though his rookie season is over, dynasty managers who invested a lot to get him (or those unlike me who got him in devy leagues two summers ago for pennies) should wait patiently for him to continue his rise up dynasty rankings.

word image 50

JK Dobbins, RB BAL

Week 11 Stats: 15 carries, 70 yards, one touchdown, two receptions, 15 receiving yards (two targets)

After a brilliant college career that was punctuated by a 2,000-yard, 21-rushing-touchdown campaign as a junior, Dobbins wasn’t the clear top running back prospect that some would expect from a player with his production at a power-five school. Nevertheless, there were plenty of us (myself included) who entered the pre-NFL draft process with Dobbins as the top tailback available.

At Ohio State, Dobbins showed a perfect combination of power and finesse. Blasting through running lanes and taking on linebackers in the hole one play before stretching the defense off tackle and cutting back with precision on the next, he displayed quick change-of-direction ability to avoid defenders and incredible balance at the point of contact. It wasn’t uncommon to see him run through multiple tackles on his way to chunk gains with the Buckeyes.

On top of his prowess as a runner, Dobbins also proved himself as an extremely solid pass catcher while in Columbus. Smooth on screens and option routes out of the backfield, piling up 71 catches for 645 yards and five receiving touchdowns in 42 career games, it was easy to see why many talent evaluators thought he’d be even more productive as a pass-catcher at the next level.

Regularly found in dynasty rookie rankings anywhere between first and fourth in the months leading up to the NFL draft, Dobbins landing in Baltimore as the fifth tailback off the board late in the second round moved him down many managers draft boards. Going behind Clyde-Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers (not to mention 11 wide receivers) and having to share the backfield with Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, he began getting pushed down as far as the late first round in some rookie drafts – an incredible bargain.

Through his first couple months as a pro, many dynasty managers who passed on Dobbins were happy with their decision. After scoring twice in week one and finishing the week as an RB2, he failed to crack the top-30 running backs in all but one week and despite an injury to Ingram, was seen by many as one of the most disappointing rookies in 2020.

Finally getting his chance to lead the Ravens’ backfield, Dobbins carried 15 times against the Titans for 70 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches for 15 more yards. He was a slasher, bursting through creases and lowering his shoulder for yards after contact. Showing the incredible power and balance that he displayed at Ohio State every Saturday, he showed his hungry running style every time he touched the ball.

Unfortunately for Dobbins and his dynasty managers, he tested positive for COVID-19 in the hours following the game on Sunday which made him unavailable for this week’s game against the Steelers. Therefore, it remains unknown at time of writing if he will continue to be featured but at the very least, his performance against Tennessee should be seen as a sign of things to come.

Despite the relatively slow start to his career, Dobbins remains one of the premier young running backs to roster. While he currently holds an ADP in the middle of the second round (18), the potential for Ingram to be gone in the off-season should make it surprising to nobody if he cracks the top-12 before the 2021 seasons begins. Dripping with high-end RB1 upside, he’s one of the top trade targets for those in need of a young stud running back.

word image 51

dan meylor