Target Share Report: Week 11
It’s Thanksgiving! As a result… I forgot to write this article in time for our regular release (Thursday). I won’t get it to the handsome and talented DLF editor James Simpson (@JS_Football). Nevertheless, let’s do it: Turkey Day-themed target share takes!
You can find all my 2020 data here.
You can also join on live on stream every week while I collect and discuss first impressions of each week’s stats live on stream on twitch, periscope and YouTube.
I know there’s always a lot going on in my tables. I’d love to roll it all up into one number and use graphs to pretend I’ve created a special, super-duper, stat to tell you everything. But, it’d be a lie. If you want to look at one number? Try Expected Points Per Game (EPG) but the others provide more context and information.
I include information about the stats I utilize at the end of the article again if you’d like to know more about any of them.
Enough preamble, nerd up!
Best Week 11 Side Dishes
Side dishes, the often debated, much respected sidekicks to the turkey day feast that don’t, by themselves, hold your dynasty team together but added to your experience in 2020 by making your week.
Here are wide receivers who are ranked outside the top 30 in points per game, but finished inside the top 24 last week.
That Dish you made for the first time this year: Damiere Byrd, WR NE
- WR6 in PPR scoring in week 11
Why? Because you like it a lot at first taste, but the longer the day goes on – and the more you eat it – the deeper your suspicion becomes that, while tasty, it’s not really something you’d like to eat every year.
Byrd’s been good, in spots. With N’Keal Harry back in the lineup in week 11, Jakobi Meyers struggled to earn his own targets. Neither Harry nor Meyers has an aDot over 10, while Byrd hasn’t been below that line but once in 2020. In week 11 he streaked down the field at a 17.9 average depth of target, while Harry sucked up 21% of shorter targets with Donte Moncrief (it’s still 2020 right?) getting 5%. Meyers had 8%.
Sure, it was fun, the points were nice, and it added a little unexpected surprise to your week 11 palate. But Byrd looks like a spot starter who is only going to put up points in a game script you rarely want to rely on.
Sweet Potatoes: Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
- WR12 in PPR scoring in week 11
Because he’s exactly who you thought he was, but it was slow to take hold, so he may be underrated at this point. You know how excited and intrigued we are by Chase Claypool and his high target share, his multiple weeks with huge fantasy games, and two rushing touchdowns?
Well, sure, Claypool has had seven weeks with more than 15 PPR fantasy points – in his rookie season – while in a tight and highly-competitive wide receiver room. But, on a lesser team, so has Samuel, kinda. And while he’s only had four games over 15 fantasy points, three of them have been over 20 (Claypool has one week over 20 points) and four of his last five games have been over 15.
Also, he’s a hybrid RB/WR we originally thought he could be. He’s Laviska Shenault but good. He’s Chase Claypool but cheaper. He’s sweet dynasty value and… potato-like? Okay this comparison fell down quickly.
Corn: Nelson Agholor, WR LV
- WR13 in PPR scoring in week 11
A wide receiver who’s proven over and over again that he’s bad, who suddenly has production largely fueled by high volume on a weak depth chart? One who no one really cares about? Yeah, he’s corn. Sure, you should eat it. Balance out those sweet dishes with some vegetables. But no one’s excited and they probably shouldn’t be.
Mash Potatoes: Michael Thomas, WR NO
- WR14 in PPR scoring in week 11
Why is Michael Thomas mash potatoes? Because you knew he was going to show up, you looked forward to it, and enjoyed his 19.4 PPR points and 52% target share in week 11. But it’s not setting anyone’s dynasty heart aflame. Is he a top five dynasty wide receiver? Sure. Over the last three weeks in his return to the field, Thomas has had 6, 7 and 15 targets for a target share of 18%, 30%, and finally 52% last week. Seems like he’s worked himself back into his role.
We also know he won’t get 52% every week. But we also wouldn’t be surprised if he did. It’s mash potatoes – just, good.
Cranberry Sauce: DeVante Parker, WR MIA
- WR16 in PPR scoring in week 11
Because I’d never had it until I experienced my first thanksgiving, after meeting my Kentucky (future) wife, in my 20’s. It was a teachable moment… yeah, okay, I know that was a stretch.
Since Preston Williams left (week nine), Parker’s target share has shifted from an 18% average to 24%. I think I’ve proven that targets are not “vacated” and left for other players to take. However, there’s no denying that the depth chart and other players on the team affect and limit each other’s upside and downside. This is something we’re seeing a lot of in 2020.
More importantly, Parker represents almost the singular data point for an early-round draft pick to break out after their third year. I think his usage will sustain as long as there is no Preston Williams on the depth chart. But it also tells us to have a lower expectation for later breakouts, while respecting the established floor of their breakout. This may help with players like Corey Davis, and N’Keal Harry moving forward.
Also Corn: Mike Williams, WR LAC
- WR19 in PPR scoring in week 11
I think this might just be who Mike Williams is. He’s good, he’ll produce in 20% to 30% of his games. He’s big and will catch long touchdowns. He’s DeSean Jackson but not someone who plays the same way Jackson did (or scored as consistently for fantasy). He’s kinda, just… corn.
Brussel Sprouts: Tim Patrick, WR DEN
- WR20 in PPR scoring in week 11
Because I like them, dang it, and no one else seems to get it. But they are good for you, they are full of fiber, vitamins and antioxidants (which the internet assures me is a good thing). UDFAs continue to produce around 20% to 25% of all top-24 seasons, and as a weekly spot starter of injury fill in, there’s nothing cheaper, easier or less talked about then a nice – meal-rounding – UDFA who consistently proves he can put up in a good spot when needed.
Also, they are delicious, man, get woke or whatever.
Who is the Stuffing?
Stuffing is the centerpiece of side dishes, in my opinion. You’ll likely disagree. I’m good with that. But, that’s who stuffing is for me in this exercise.
I can think of no better example of dynasty “stuffing” than a young, underrated wide receiver who may be a trade target for “next year.”
Marquise Brown, WR BAL
- WR125 in PPR scoring of week 11
He broke out in his rookie year. That’s pretty good, even if he’s not part of the rookie wave of 2020. He has first-round draft capital, and is on a great NFL team that should continue to be a great team.
He’s also the leading opportunity wide receiver in Baltimore, and the disappointment in his actual fantasy points may have some willing to give up on him right now.
So, in 2020, there’s’ not much value in the Baltimore receiving game. But what value there is, largely goes to Brown. He and Willie Snead are basically dividing the majority of the receiving game in Baltimore with to a 60% Dominator. However, Snead’s volume has a ceiling, whereas the higher aDot Brown could still yield more fantasy points if the passing game opens up in the future.
An easy dynasty buy with high draft capital, plenty of talent, and still only 23 years old? Sounds like dynasty “stuffing” to me.
Okay, so that’s about all I have time for this week, I hope you find it mildly useful, entertaining, or informative.
Let me hear what you think in the comments below or on Twitter anytime.
Thanks again,
Peter Howard,
@pawhody,
Addendum: The Stats explained
Real quick, here are the stats I’m using this week and what they are good for.
YD/TM Att: Yards per team pass attempt
This takes the Pass and Rush attempts of the player’s team each week and divides the player’s total yards against it. It’s a simple, yet powerful combination of efficiency and volume. It has a high R squared value in stickiness (it stays relatively consistent week over week and year over year).
It’s a good statistic to sort players by within a position.
PPG: PPR points per game
Fairly common stat that’s often undervalued these days. Depending on the sample, PPG is actually the stickiest and most accurate stat for predicting production.
EPG: Expected Points per game
This is based on rotoviz.com’s expected points formula (which I don’t know) but essentially measures how “valuable” the touches a player has received. It can be seen as a more accurate volume metric removing the player’s “efficiency” from the equation and just looking at how much value they are “given” by the team for fantasy points.
FPOE/G: Fantasy points over expected per game
Also a rotoviz stat, it gives us an idea of if a player is underperforming (negative number) or overperforming (positive number) their “given” volume. In other words, how efficient they have been.
TD Rate: Yards per Touchdown
Players typically average between 100 and 200 yards per touchdown. To be more accurate, if you’re like that, in 2020 (with more than 20 targets) wide receivers are averaging around 175 yards per touchdown, RBs are averaging 130 yards per touchdown, and tight ends are averaging 160.
Essentially, outside of this range, it tells us who may “regress” in touchdowns in the coming weeks.
Percentage of games with seven targets or more:
This one is fairly self-explanatory. I use it as a context check for target share. A high target share in a low passing offense isn’t as “good” as a lower target share in a high passing offense in terms of expected targets.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week One - September 14, 2024
- Post-Draft Rookie Rankings vs Redraft Rankings - May 22, 2024
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
