Flip or Stick?
One of the hardest decisions in dynasty fantasy football is what to do with players who have exceeded the expectations we had for them. Should you flip these players and attempt to “cash-out,” or do you ride the wave wherever it may take you and have them stick to your roster, knowing that their value and production could bottom out at any moment? On a personal level, I trade away any players who hit unexpectedly, but that doesn’t mean it’s always the correct call.
One caveat to my “verdict” — you should still look to see what you can obtain in a trade for the players listed below. Even if I suggest a player should stick on your roster, no player should ever be off-limits if the price is right. One additional caveat — my thoughts are subjective. Yes, they will be stat-based, but they will still incorporate my thoughts on what the stats and situations for these players say.
Salvon Ahmed, RB MIA
Ahmed was one of the community’s favorite UDFAs this year when he signed with San Francisco. That was likely more based on situation than talent, and once Ahmed was cut from the 49ers he (largely) fell off the dynasty radar. He signed with the Dolphins and sat on their practice squad until October, and even after being promoted to the active roster, it took an injury to Myles Gaskin in week eight before Ahmed was able to see the field. In week nine he saw 38 yards on seven rushing attempts against the Cardinals.
The Dolphins must have liked what they saw because they gave him 22 opportunities (21 rushing attempts, one target) the following week. Assisted by a rushing touchdown, Ahmed scored 16 fantasy points. He followed that with 12.4 this past week against Denver. One positive note to come from last week’s game was Ahmed was targeted six times, after seeing just one target the previous two weeks. One area of concern is that Ahmed’s snap share fell from 76% the week prior to 66% in the Denver game. The Dolphins were trailing, which certainly could have played a role in his reduced snaps.
Of larger concern is Myles Gaskin returning to practice this week — he could be activated at any time. Prior to being placed on Injured Reserve, Gaskin was dominating touches out of the Dolphins’ backfield — both rushing and receiving — averaging 20.8 opportunities since taking over as the primary running back in week three. There’s no reason to believe that Gaskin won’t be integrated back into the offense when he returns. The best-case scenario if you roster Ahmed is that he is looking at a shared backfield.
Verdict: FLIP
I get the urge to ride Ahmed for another week. If Gaskin doesn’t play this week, you have a starter at the position that you likely acquired off waivers. Resist the urge to ride it out. Trade him now. When looking at the range of outcomes for Ahmed’s value, it seems more likely that it bottoms out, rather than increases significantly. Go ahead and move him now.
Two of my favorite trades that involve Ahmed are below. Combining Ahmed with another player of minimal value in order to get a rookie second rounder is a slam dunk. Pivoting to a position even more scarce than running back and trading for Robert Tonyan is a move I would make as well.
Kalen Ballage, RB Los Angeles Chargers
In the most 2020-like development ever in 2020, Ballage is apparently a thing now. Yes, the same Ballage who averaged 1.8 rushing yards per attempt last year on 74 carries. I know that yards per attempt can be a divisive stat, but when someone has the worst rushing yards per attempt in the history of football, I have to at least mention it. This is a new year, and a new team for Ballage who has seemingly resurrected his career in Los Angeles. After Justin Jackson went on the IR, the Chargers have, surprisingly, turned to Ballage as their primary back.
After three straight weeks scoring over 14.1 fantasy points, you may be wondering what has changed with Ballage. It’s remarkable. Are you ready for this? Nothing. Nothing has changed. He is still very bad at football. He has increased his yards per attempt all the way to 3.7 yards per attempt, which is still very bad, just not historically so. He’s averaging 0.56 yards created per rushing attempt, which ranks 41st, and his Juke Rate of 14.7 ranks 42nd at the running back position per Fantasydata.com. It’s nice when traditional and advanced stats agree to let us know that a player is bad.
Ballage has seen volume — 22 opportunities per game. Volume can hide deficiencies at the running back position, but can only do so for so long. At some point, a player is just what he is, and Ballage is bad. This past week he hauled in seven receptions for a grand total of 27 yards. That’s wildly inefficient. Ballage has averaged 6.2 yards per reception for the Chargers compared to the 8.5 yards per reception that Austin Ekeler was averaging. Speaking of Ekeler, he started practicing this week and looks likely to be back in the next couple of games.
RB Austin Ekeler will practice today, according to Anthony Lynn. #Chargers have 21 days to place him on active roster
— Gilberto Manzano (@GManzano24) November 25, 2020
Verdict: FLIP
Once Ekeler is back, Ballage’s value is eviscerated. The Dynasty Trade Finder provides multiple instances of people trading Ballage for a 2021 rookie second-rounder. I could not hit accept fast enough if another owner were to make me that offer. Sell now.
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