Cornerstone Report: Week 11
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Michael Pittman can be found here.
NCAA WEEK 12
DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama
Smith was part of Alabama’s number one ranked 2017 recruiting class which included Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. All three were top 75 national recruits, and all three are on track to be first-round NFL draft picks.
Last week Smith became the SEC’s all-time leader in career receiving touchdowns. Through just nine games he is on the verge of his second straight 1,000-yard season.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Even while competing for targets with Jeudy and Ruggs, he hit the college market share performance benchmark of quality prospects.
Data from the DLF College Market Share App.
His DLF Devy Rank of eighth among 2021 prospects projects him squarely in the first round of rookie drafts. Opinions among our team widely vary, however, as he has a high rank of fourth and a low value of 25th.
His Devy ADP of 1.11 is in line with our rankings and is more tightly clustered, with a high value of ninth and a low value of 16th. Our Cornerstone Rankings combine 2021 rookies with first and second-year NFL players. Here he ranks 29th as WR17 between Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson.
Max Borghi, RB Washington State
As the featured back in Mike Leach’s offense, Borghi racked up 139 receptions the last two seasons. In January Leach left Pullman for Mississippi State. Then Borghi hurt his back in preseason camp. He is yet to play a snap in 2020 among speculation he may not suit up at all this year. The result is a declining dynasty value.
Meanwhile, Leach’s new back at MSU, Kylin Hill (profiled in this column’s week five), previously a devy afterthought, has racked up 23 receptions in three games, fueling speculation that Borghi’s production may simply have been due to Leach’s system.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
In a year of opt-outs, Borghi’s dynasty value may be more insulated than usual if he skips this season. His versatility is already on tape and is well suited to today’s NFL.
2021 RB prospect Max Borghi is a riser in my #Devy Workbook. A gritty, tough back who has decent vertical movement agility and great contact balance. Natural pass catcher with solid hands will serve him well in the NFL.@DynastyHHPod @DevyHappyHour pic.twitter.com/1uzAGoakcz
— Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive) October 29, 2019
Listed at 5’10” and 198 pounds, his size may not be as concerning to front offices as it may have been a decade ago. It is also mitigated by his projected usage as a pass-catching back rather than a between-the-tackles grinder.
He is down to 25th overall in the DLF Devy ADP data as RB8. This is 19th among 2021 prospects, implying a rookie ADP of 2.07 in 1QB leagues. Our devy crew is significantly lower on his prospects as he sits at 37th in our Devy Rankings. Two of our rankers exclude him from their top 76 players altogether. In the Cornerstone Rankings, he comes in at 57th between KJ Hamler and Mecole Hardman. His high value of 45th comes from yours truly. Expect the variance in his value to tighten as the draft process plays out.
NFL WEEK 11
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
In a year of superstar rookie performances, it is easy to lose sight of the Antonio Gibson success story. He went from a raw prospect with 77 career touches (just 33 rushing attempts) at a small school to the overall dynasty RB11 through NFL week 11. He continues to impress and showed off to a national audience on Thursday with a three-touchdown outing.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
His dynasty value has followed suit. He is now a fourth-round startup pick.
He is dynasty’s RB20 in November ADP between Kareem Hunt and Chris Carson. The DLF Dynasty ranking team puts also puts him at RB20 but with an overall rank of 61, between James Robinson (profiled in Cornerstone Report week seven) and Melvin Gordon.
Among rookies, our team ranks Gibson as RB6 and the 13th player overall, among the likes of Brandon Aiyuk and Henry Ruggs. This marks a significant increase in value from his final May Rookie ADP of 21st, when we was the rookie 2.09 and RB8.
All this despite playing on a three-win (now four) team ranked 29th in total offense with a revolving door at quarterback. Averaging 14.6 touches per game, he has taken over the Football Team backfield, and is on track for 51 receiving targets for the season even while sharing time with target hog JD McKissic.
At 6’1” and 228 pounds, he shares the body type and versatility of Joe Mixon. Raw as a runner, his upside is astronomical as he learns the finer points of the running back position.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer algorithm combines rankings, ADP data and real-world MyFantasyLeague (MFL) trades to value players and rookie picks. In terms of picks, it values Gibson in line with a mid-first round 2021 rookie pick. In terms of players, Russell Wilson (in 1QB format), Austin Ekeler and JuJu Smith-Schuster share similar values.
Finally, our Dynasty Trade Finder pulls actual MFL deals according to custom criteria. Recent trades involving Gibson include the following.
- 11-20-2020: Antonio Gibson and WR Diontae Johnson, PIT for WR Keenan Allen, LAC
- 11-19-2020: Antonio Gibson for Year 2021 round one draft pick and Year 2021 round two draft pick
- 11-18-2020: Antonio Gibson for WR Diontae Johnson, PIT
- 11-15-2020: Antonio Gibson for WR Cooper Kupp, LAR
- 11-15-2020: Antonio Gibson for WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
