IDP Waiver Wire: Week 12
Notable IDP Assets on Bye this week:
Nobody! Let your whole roster feast on Thanksgiving week (showing myself out, please keep reading…)
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 14 Hits, 12 Average, 10 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 24 Hits, 12 Average, 10 Busts
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week 11 Observations
- Isaiah Simmons!! He is here! CAUTION: he still only played 68% of the snaps, but the production on that limited volume should have you ecstatic as someone who spent your draft capital on the young bona fide stud. If you have the luxury of benching him I would still continue to do so until his snap count passes 80%, but if not I understand putting him in your lineup as you try to make the playoffs.
- To those who have Jamal Adams – do not worry. This comes with the territory of a safety who rushes the quarterback at an absurd rate, but he still should have come away with two sacks on Thursday night. If only forcing intentional groundings counted somehow toward IDP production…
- Alex Singleton, my oh my! The weather conditions in Cleveland set it up for a classic rushing attack straight into Singleton and company’s arms, but he balled out. Keep starting him as a top 15 linebacker the rest of the season.
- Christian Kirksey is a low-end LB1/high-end LB2. The interception was lucky, and the fumble recovery TD would have been as well; however, it shows the splash plays are there for him to bring home.
- I was so excited to have Myles Garrett this week, so to see Olivier Vernon absolutely ball out yesterday hurt my heart. Props to those who plugged him in late in the week!
- Kamren Curl had eight tackles by halftime, and mysteriously only had one more early in the second half. He’s still a solid DB2 the rest of the season.
- Vonn Bell is entering top-12 safety territory on a weekly basis.
- Guessing who will prevail out of the Washington Football Team’s pass-rushing unit is simply a game of roulette at this point. Play at your own risk.
- Yetur Gross-Matos hasn’t been flashy, but his IDP production is slowly on the rise. It is probably your last chance to buy low on him for a while after an early struggle in his career.
- With Jayon Brown likely out for the season, Rashaan Evans is a must-start linebacker to close out the year.
- Somehow, Drew Lock wasn’t sacked once against the Dolphins this week. Emmanuel Ogbah’s remarkable sack streak stops at eight weeks.
Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters who have tough matchups ahead in week 12 who you MAY consider benching for a dart throw found below:
DL: Yannick Ngakoue, Akiem Hicks, Myles Garrett/Olivier Vernon
LB: Kyzir White, Foyesade Oluokon, Eric Kendricks
DB: Daniel Sorenson, Jeremy Chinn, Antoine Winfield, Bryce Callahan
Good luck this week! It’s about time for that final playoff push! How time flies…
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Heading into what is likely your penultimate regular-season matchup, here are the top 25 defenders in terms of Disruption Score (minimum 20 tackles). TJ Watt is simply playing on a different stratosphere, but even this list has a few names of some IDP candidates that may still be on your waiver wire. If you are thinking to yourself, “my defensive lineman has been playing well lately, but is it sustainable?” look no further than this metric. If you read last week and plugged Carl Lawson into your lineup, *this* metric is what uncovered his breakout matchup!
Defensive Line
Mario Addison, DE BUF (Season Disruption Score: 19.09 ~ DL #24 overall)
Addison is most likely on your league’s IDP waiver wire, considering he is 33 years old and is outside the top 36 defensive linemen through 11 weeks of the season. Addison does have an above-average Disruption Score, however, and his low sack rate suggests he is “due” for a boost in sack production to close out the season should his body hold up. I like his matchup against Justin Herbert and the Chargers in week 12, and he is a great depth piece to add to your DL rotation as you make your playoff push either way!
Jerry Tillery, DT LAC (Season Disruption Score: 34.22 ~ would-be DL #11 overall)
A longtime favorite of the Read and React podcast, Tillery is possibly on your league’s waiver wire after his original owner got impatient with the 2019 first-round pick. Tillery has five career sacks through his first 25 games, but he has a mouthwatering matchup against the Bills and their rush-heavy attack. Tillery’s Disruption Score would be #11 overall if his tackle count was a bit higher, suggesting his sack production is just begging to be unleashed. The Bills allow the 13th-most points to opposing defensive tackles, and the return of Joey Bosa should give Tillery a much better chance to bring Josh Allen down next week.
Linebacker
Nicholas Morrow, OLB LVR (Disruption Score: 8.56 ~ LB #20 overall)
Morrow is LB41 on the season in my main dynasty league, but his Disruption Score suggests his style of play could lead to a great upcoming game against the Falcons. You’ll see another Raiders edge rusher recommended a little further down this article, but if your league has a designated OLB/Edge position, Morrow is an excellent one-week candidate to use against a Falcons team that let Matt Ryan get hit ten times yesterday against New Orleans.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Carlos Dunlap, DE SEA (Week 12, @ Philadelphia)
It’s only been three weeks since Dunlap has been an official member of the Seattle Seahawks, but their defense has already gone all the way from “completely hopeless” to “not very good!” Dunlap’s ability to force pressure has helped their coverage defense immensely, and fortunately for those of us who are starting Dunlap, he’s starting to make the splash plays too. Dunlap got two sacks on an injured Kyler Murray last Thursday night, including the game-clinching sack to push themselves atop the NFC West. Dunlap is the only Seahawks edge defender worth investing in right now, and you can roll him out as a mid-tier DL2.
Carl Nassib, DE LVR (Week 12, @ Atlanta)
For those of you ravaged by even more injuries in week 11, look no further than investment strategist Carl Nassib to give you some steady returns against the Falcons next Sunday. Matt Ryan was sacked an astounding eight times(!) against the Saints, showing the Falcons’ offensive line is beyond repair this far into the season. The Raiders are an extremely poor pass-rushing team, but I don’t think it really matters at this point as long as you are facing Atlanta. Nassib has been a valuable IDP asset in the past, and he is starting to return to his old form after battling injuries over the past 18 months. If you are desperate, roll out Carl Nassib in a matchup that cannot get any better right now.
Linebacker
BJ Goodson, LB CLE (Week 12, @ Jacksonville)
It’s been hard to rely on any Browns linebacker to be a solid starter this year; however, this week may be the rare exception to actually start one with confidence. Jacksonville has allowed an average of 58 fantasy points to opposing linebackers, which is the third-highest amount in the NFL. Goodson has been the lone usable linebacker up to this point anyway, but considering this matchup, I’d say he is nearly a lock for double-digit tackles, with the possibility of an interception on top of that. Roll Goodson out if you’ve been stashing him and watch the points roll in.
Kyler Fackrell, OLB NYG (Week 12, vs. Cincinnati)
This is definitely a boom-bust linebacker option, but the reasoning is simple: once Ryan Finley came in at quarterback, he was sacked (four) more times than he had a completion (three). Fackrell has had multiple sack-fumble and interception splash plays already, he plays nearly every defensive snap, and his team is in the heat of a divisional race to the playoffs. Take note of the possibility he could walk away with three points, but if you are an underdog and need a win next week, roll him out and hope he comes away with 20+ points.
Defensive Backs
Rayshawn Jenkins, S LAC (Week 12, @ Buffalo)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Jenkins is someone who could have that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on in case the splash play doesn’t come through regardless. He has 33 tackles over the past five weeks, and already proved his ability to create a turnover by picking off Derek Carr in week nine.
Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber run has fallen off as of late, and the Bills offensive scheme is gold for opposing defensive backs. Allen can easily get caught trying to do too much with a play and overextend himself, which gives someone like Jenkins that additional boost to their week 12 prospects. Start Jenkins and be comfortable with his high tackle floor, and then sit back and pray for his ceiling to come through.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
