Twitter Observations: Rookie Receiver Edition

Michael Moore

This week, we log on and see what Twitter has to say about a handful of rookie receivers. Several have stood out through this first half of the season but we explore which players you should keep and which players need to move on from our fantasy teams.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications

Exponential Justin

With such a strong class of receivers this year, you can be excused for not noticing just how good of a rookie season Justin Jefferson has had. But as the tweet denotes above, Jefferson is doing just fine even if he’s not seeing the targets that other rookies may be seeing. On the season, Jefferson is averaging a little over 18 yards per reception, nearly 85 yards per game, and already has four 100-yard games. In fantasy scoring, Jefferson is performing as a low-end WR1.

Dynasty Impact: It only took nine games for our rankers to slot Jefferson as a top-ten dynasty receiver. Not bad when you consider just where Jefferson was being taken in rookie drafts earlier this year:

word image 24

Jefferson was available after the supposed top-tier of rookie running backs was taken and even behind second-tier receiver Jalen Reagor in many drafts. That looks silly in hindsight as only CeeDee Lamb looks to be a future dynasty star on the same level as Jefferson.

As far as trading for Jefferson, there’s no point in making an offer. His stock is red hot and any Jefferson owner would be nuts to let him go. Likewise, if you won the Jefferson lottery, it looks like you have a dynasty stud for the foreseeable future. He’s a hold.

Tee Time

While Jefferson has been exploding for a 100-yard game every other week, fellow rookie Tee Higgins has been a model of consistency, as noted by the tweet above. If Higgins keeps this up, he’ll easily top 1,000 yards while continuing to develop a rapport with first overall pick Joe Burrow. It may not be a sexy 1,000 yards, but Higgins has been a significant part of the Bengals offense since the beginning of the season, seeing at least five targets in every game this season save for the opener when he saw none. He’s currently a low-end WR2 which is well worth it for where he was going in rookie drafts.

Dynasty Impact: If you thought Jefferson was a steal, Higgins is even more so.

word image 38

Higgins was available in the early second round of most rookie drafts, just like the real NFL draft, and has so far been a low-end WR2. He’s got two 100-yard games, four touchdowns and will start next season, at worst, as Burrow’s second receiving option. The production has also led him to be a top-20 receiver according to our DLF rankers. He’s another asset that is too valuable to ship off but also too young where getting picks for him would be a risk. He’s a hold.

Chase Study

No doubt that Chase Claypool has been one of the more impressive rookies this year. Especially considering he seemingly came out of nowhere, drafted among a throng of receivers in the second round then having to battle high draft picks on his own team in order to see targets. But thanks to some timely injuries, he’s seen his share, including three games of double-digit targets and two multi-score games through just half the season. Through nine games he’s totaled 35 receptions for exactly 500 yards, seven touchdowns and is a legitimate WR2 in fantasy scoring.

Dynasty Impact: It was one thing when Claypool had his breakout game but his value has steadily climbed since then to the low 20s in terms of dynasty ADP. word image 39 This would mean he’d be a typical dynasty team’s second wide receiver which seems like a reach. Right now, the Steelers offense is pretty diverse and seems to oscillate between who their receiver-du-jour is. Last week it was Diontae Johnson who led the team with 116 yards; the week before that it was JuJu Smith-Schuster with 93 yards. And while he’s averaged over ten targets the last three games and scored three times, Claypool also hasn’t managed to top 75 yards since the breakout mentioned above in week five.

I’m still hesitant about holding on to Claypool. The Steelers seemingly draft a receiver in the top three rounds every year and who knows who it will be next year. Plus, Ben Roethlisberger could be done at any time and the source of all this passing could be thrown into disarray. Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Claypool could fetch a mid-first round pick which I would easily accept.

Loose Brandon

Brandon Aiyuk was one of the more interesting rookie receivers in this year’s class. On one hand, he was a first-round pick who actually prompted a team to trade up for him. That draft pedigree alone would seem to put him in the first round of rookie drafts most years. Yet, he was consistently available in the second round of 2020 rookie drafts:

word image 40

Like Claypool, Aiyuk has stepped in for injured veterans – including Deebo Samuel – and become the de facto top option in the 49ers passing game. Through eight games, he’s recorded 35 receptions for 446 yards, recorded three receiving touchdowns and two more on the ground to sit as a WR3 in fantasy scoring so far.

Dynasty Impact: Much like Samuel dynasty owners last year, the question for Aiyuk owners is if he can keep up this kind of production. The current interaction of the 49ers offense doesn’t exactly lend itself to a lot of fantasy points for its receivers. Sure, they’re currently 19th in pass attempts per game but that can partially be explained by the fact that they’ve been behind more this season than they’ve been ahead. Unlike last year, when the team advanced to the Super Bowl and finished second-to-last in pass attempts.

Back to Aiyuk, there’s no doubt his fantasy stats have been helped by the lingering injuries to Deebo Samuel who himself has only seen four games this season. I would be curious what the offense looks like when both Aiyuk and Samuel are healthy along with the 49er running game. Only then can we see who is the 49 to own on your dynasty team. Currently, you can offload Aiyuk for a mid-first round pick in the 2021 rookie draft which would be a great return on investment for those who drafted Aiyuk.

michael moore