Cornerstone Report: Week Ten
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Chris Olave, Tamorrion Terry and Clyde Edwards-Helaire can be found here.
NCAA WEEK 11
Elijah Moore, WR Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin was named the Ole Miss head coach in December 2019. He inherited a team that won just four games but ranked 53rd nationally in points per game and 29th in yards per play. Despite those respectable numbers, Kiffin’s on-field reputation suggested even better production in 2020. Through seven games, Elijah Moore may be benefiting the most.
But while Moore is just now gaining notoriety in dynasty circles, he already has a lengthy pedigree. He is also known for one of the more unique touchdown celebrations in recent memory.
Elijah Moore should have been rewarded for this celebration, not penalized.
Creative and executed perfectly. Let ‘em play, ref! #EggBowl pic.twitter.com/WDN3965SUN
— Wes Blankenship (@Wes_nship) November 29, 2019
Moore was a four-star, top-200 overall national recruit as a prep at the talent-rich Fort Lauderdale Aquinas program. He chose Ole Miss over Alabama, Ohio State, LSU and other premier programs and did not take long to make an impact in Oxford.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
His metrics profile is already one of a quality prospect but his value in devy and dynasty is just now catching up. Perhaps it’s his small school. Perhaps it’s his small stature at 5’9” and 185 pounds. Regardless, the dynasty community has not reached consensus on the NCAA’s leader in receiving yards. He is ranked 24th in the DLF Devy Rankings with a high value of 12th and a low of 36th. The broader community appears to be lagging as he is outside the top 70 in DLF Devy ADP data.
Our Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players with 2021 rookies. Here he comes in at 59th between Mecole Hardman and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, with only one DLF ranker (yours truly) placing him in the top 60.
Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
From Moore, we pivot to another elusive SEC wide receiver in Toney.
Most missed tackles forced after the catch (SEC):
🔹 Kadarius Toney, Florida – 15
🔹 Elijah Moore, Ole Miss – 15🔹 Seth Williams, Auburn – 9
🔹 Jaden Walley, Miss St – 9 pic.twitter.com/AuhgBSt4XK— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 17, 2020
Toney is fun to watch and can score from anywhere on the field. At 6’0” and 193 pounds, he retains the quickness of a smaller player and shows enough strength and balance to create yards after the catch in multiple ways – especially evident in this low-angle view.
Kadarius Toney hit all the buttons on this run 🕹 pic.twitter.com/ELLhx4SVT6
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 9, 2019
But while Moore’s production came early, Toney compiled only 50 catches in the three seasons prior to 2020.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
And while on pace to surpass 1,000 scrimmage yards, his 20.7 dominator rating – measuring his share of team receiving production – just surpasses the “breakout” threshold as a senior. However, expect Toney to figure more prominently in the Gators offense as projected first-round tight end Kyle Pitts continues to miss time (concussion, nasal surgery).
Toney is unranked in our Cornerstone Rankings and Devy Rankings and is outside the top 75 in Devy ADP but should climb as the season progresses. He will have plenty of chances to gain attention as the sixth-ranked Gators and their elite offense are prominently featured the rest of the year.
NFL WEEK TEN
Michael Pittman, WR IND
Pittman is the latest rookie wide receiver to make headlines. He leads the Colts with 25 targets over the last two weeks. The resulting 11-157-0 receiving line is good for WR24 performance in that time.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
Pittman had a mixed profile as an NFL prospect but Indianapolis saw enough to select him near the top of round two. His college target share and production metrics put him in the 60th percentile of historical wide receiver prospects while his 39th-percentile breakout age is relatively late, and he is already 23 years old.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Our College Market Share app presents this another way. Pittman did not hit ideal production thresholds until his third college season, and even then just met the baseline.
But he is a good route runner and fluid mover with adequate speed at 6’4” and 223 pounds.
Michael Pittman Jr. was making plays all over the field tonight 😎 @MikePitt_Jr @Colts pic.twitter.com/vPnZ0wSEXc
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 13, 2020
Five of his remaining seven games are against bottom-tier defenses, so his recent trend of production may continue and boost his dynasty value, which (as measured by ADP) has held steady since the NFL draft.
Data from the DLF ADP Over Time Tool.
He is currently the WR50 and 93rd player overall in our Dynasty Rankings, between Mecole Hardman and Hunter Henry. The premium value of quarterbacks in Superflex/2QB Rankings pushes him down to 137th between Zack Moss and Mark Ingram, but opinions vary widely. Two of our staff rank him among the top 100 dynasty players with another two ranking him 172nd or lower.
This variance is reduced in the ADP Data. November Startup ADP has him as WR47 and 93rd overall between Jarvis Landry and Chase Edmonds, with a tighter distribution of high (85) and low (105) values. The Cornerstone Rankings are even tighter and value him between TJ Hockenson and Brandon Aiyuk.
The Dynasty Trade Analyzer algorithm combines ADP, rankings data and real-world MyFantasyLeague trades to value players and rookie draft picks. It values Pittman in line with an early 2021 round two rookie pick. This is a slight improvement upon his final Rookie ADP of 2.04. Players with comparable values include Kenyan Drake and Evan Engram.
Finally, the Dynasty Trade Finder pulls actual MFL trades per custom criteria. Recent deals involving Pittman include the following:
- 11-17-20: Michael Pittman for RB Austin Ekeler, LAC
- 11-15-20: Michael Pittman for WR Brandin Cooks, HOU
- 11-12-20: Michael Pittman for TE Hunter Henry, LAC
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
