Tuesday Transactions: Week 11
It is officially crunch time. Every season, the week before Thanksgiving signifies trade deadlines (if you have one) and many teams making the final decision on the fate of their roster for the stretch run. Having a team still in the mix, at this point, generally means you are looking at matchups over the next couple of weeks and determining if you have what it takes to contend. If you are out of it, shedding potential points and making sure you secure a few extra losses becomes the focus.
Regardless of your side, here are five transactions to make ahead of week 11.
Joe Burrow, QB CIN – Buy
This one may seem like it is coming out of nowhere after he posted a QB17 finish in week ten. After all, Burrow is QB14 on the season and for all intents and purposes, has met expectations as a rookie. With that said, what makes you think he is a buy for the stretch run? He is insulated and has a good schedule. Currently the QB8 in dynasty and tied to his situation for another four years, there is little risk in buying this player. His value may remain, but it will not fall.
Down the stretch, he faces Washington, the Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Texans. A week 15 matchup against the Steelers looms difficult and New York has been surprisingly good against opposing quarterbacks, but otherwise, his 41 attempts per game lead the NFL and he should see many favorable game scripts the rest of the way. Zac Taylor will not take his foot off the gas as he tries to get his rookie as many reps as possible.
The Move – If you still are holding Dak Prescott, this is an easy swap one for one. I would add a small, inconsequential piece to make that deal happen. If selling picks is your preference, consider offering an entire 2021 draft pick set to make the deal happen.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN – Sell
Monday night’s result could not have gone better for dynasty teams hoping for a sell window on the veteran. He turned seven targets into a WR12 finish and miraculously, Kirk Cousins managed to support multiple WR1 receivers on only 36 attempts. The upcoming schedule is great for the Vikings as he gets home games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars. Use this as a selling point for Thielen.
Unfortunately, these matchups can be risky, given any of them could be a Dalvin Cook game. Furthermore, the fantasy playoff slate includes road games against the Buccaneers and Saints and another game against the Bears. Thielen will be 31 years old next season and this might be the last time you have a true opportunity to cash out.
The Move – Get creative on pivoting off Thielen for another wide receiver. Odell Beckham and Courtland Sutton, although they have shown up on this list as prior sells, are in-play. Parris Campbell is another target to look at if the owner is a contender. Depressed offense options such as Michael Gallup or Marquise Brown could also be an option as well as short-term injury targets like Preston Williams. A first-round pick is also an automatic win. Regardless, scout the wide receiver needy squads in your league and throw out some offers. Even if you are contending, Thielen can be replaced given how deep the position continues to be.
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND – Buy
I never thought we would get to a point where this is an option. Taylor has been locked in at RB9 or higher since being drafted in the second round by the Colts and rose to as high as RB5 in ADP after Marlon Mack’s injury in week one. Unfortunately, the runway has never completely cleared out for the Wisconsin Badger and he is currently the RB19 on the season. Not awful, but nothing close to meeting the expectations of those who compared him to some of the best prospects to enter the league in the past decade.
The usage is maddening for Taylor as the Colts continues to employ a hot hand, situational approach in the backfield. With that said, the schedule is extremely favorable and curiously, the most encouraging part of Taylor’s usage has been his receiving. Two or more targets in the last five games and in any given situation, his power/speed combo and tackle-breaking ability still allow for some upside.
The Move – I am buying for any first-round pick in a superflex league. If you are a contender, look to buy as a future investment plus win-now piece. As a rebuilding squad, shop other backs such as Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliott as reset button plays.
Hunter Henry, TE LAC – Sell
It has been a whirlwind for Henry over his dynasty career. He currently checks in a TE8 in the latest ADP and has lingered in the top ten for more than three years. Thus far in 2020, he ranks 11th at the position but has not at all separated himself from the pack and could be a sell candidate based on his current situation.
Early on, with Tyrod Taylor poised to start for the Chargers, Henry was difficult to sell. His 2020 was bound to play out on a franchise tag with a low volume quarterback and nobody was buying. With Justin Herbert at the helm, the long-term outlook for Henry looks much better, or does it? His significant injury history, market price (see Austin Hooper and Tyler Higbee), emergence of Donald Parham and the strong 2021 TE class makes it very possible the Chargers simply let Henry walk after this season.
The Move – This is the week to pounce on selling Henry after he finished as the TE3 for the week. Do not hold back. A first-round pick in a superflex and tight end premium league is a bargain. If the George Kittle team is still holding on to contention hopes, engage in trade talks for a possible swap. Another pivot move would be to target Irv Smith Jr and see if you can add a piece on top.
PJ Walker, QB CAR – Add
This one seems obvious and becomes even more so if the knee injury to Teddy Bridgewater forces him to miss time. Even if it does not, Walker might get a shot sometime this season given the season is slipping away from Carolina and it is fair to question whether Bridgewater is the future. After leading the XFL in passing yardage and showing prolific rushing ability in college, Walker would be a viable superflex starting option if he gets the opportunity.
The Move – Superflex option only but any league with 26 or more roster spots, consider adding him for the home stretch. He may not get the opportunity this season and if he does not, you can drop him going into the off-season. However, act now before the news (or actions) come down on Bridgewater and get in at a much lower price.
CONCLUSION
Through ten weeks, the promised land is within view. Only three weeks left until the fantasy playoffs and the time to be aggressive has come. Understand your league rules, know about the trade deadline (if there is one) and line up some moves before everyone else acts. With many dynasty teams frustrated with the season and looking toward the future, assess your place in the pecking order and make those deals!
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