Twitter Observations: Jonathan Taylor Trending Down, Austin Ekeler Coming Back
It is hard to believe we’re halfway through the season, and more than halfway through the fantasy season, but here we are. Not only are we closer to the playoffs but the trade deadline as well which means dynasty teams will need to make decisions about their own teams. Do you go for it or do you build for next year? Those are the questions that Twitter prompted this week, some of which are below.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications
Jonathan Semi-Taylor
People who finished with more rushing yards than Jonathan Taylor tonight:
– Derrick Henry (no surprise)
– Nyheim Hines (mild surprise)
– Jordan Wilkins (wow, okay)
– Jeremy McNichols (who?)
– Michael Pittman Jr. (but he’s a WR, come on)
– D’Onta Foreman (I thought he retired)— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) November 13, 2020
Even before Jonathan Taylor’s season-worst 12 yards in week nine, dynasty owners were jumping ship if our DLF Trade Finder is any indication. Those trades are sure to pick up next week too as Taylor seems to be perpetually behind Nyheim Hines this season. Taylor is amid an awful stretch where he hasn’t topped 60 rushing yards in a month and has seen single digit carries in his last two games.
On the season, his rushing average is now below 4.0 yards per carry – despite never averaging less than six in college – and he’s barely registering in the passing game, seeing more than the three targets in just two games this season. To be fair, other rookie running backs are having their struggles too, but Taylor’s is the most surprising.
Dynasty Impact: While a half-season is hardly enough time to judge any player a bust, plenty of dynasty owners will and have fielded offers for Taylor. And depending on the return, it will be hard for some to accept them. After all, dynasty owners spent at least a top-two rookie pick on Taylor:
The question of trading Taylor or not will come down to value. If prospective trading partners still view him close to a top-two rookie pick and include a first-round pick in 2021, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to move from Taylor. After all, we’re talking about the most replaceable position in fantasy football and it’s possible that a dynasty team’s next running back of the future is in the 2021 draft.
Let’s also not forget that the Colts seemingly have an abundance of options at the position without including last year’s starter Marlon Mack. Taylor is effectively a third-stringer for the Colts. So, if you’re ready to move past this mistake, do it now before it’s too late.
Austin Power
To all my fantasy owners that didn’t drop me… the time draws near 💀 pic.twitter.com/ij9QAW45gj
— Austin Ekeler (@AustinEkeler) November 13, 2020
It’s always nice to see players acknowledge the fantasy community in a positive way and Austin Ekeler did just that as he was nice enough to give fantasy players a sneak peek at his recovery. It’s a welcome sign not just for the Chargers – who have yet to settle on a consistent replacement for Ekeler – but for Ekeler dynasty owners too.
He had finally won the starting job in 2020 after Melvin Gordon moved on and he was quickly shooting up dynasty ranks, settling on the RB1/2 line as the season started. He was off to a good start, too, as he continued to average at least five yards per carry while still seeing a lot of targets in the passing game, averaging over four per game. That is until a serious hamstring injury kept him out at least a month.
Dynasty Impact: As serious as the injury was, the silver lining may be more appreciation for what he’s done. The Chargers have tried multiple running backs out for the Ekeler role, none of them have come close to replicating what he’s done. And yet, Ekeler’s dynasty ranking has slipped since he’s been on injured reserve:
That small dip will correct itself once Ekeler returns especially with how rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Ekeler can currently be had for a mid-first round rookie pick in 2021. That seems like a bargain considering the most recent rookie class and the supposedly elite level of running backs it had. I’d make Ekeler a target.
Sorry Mr. Jackson, Are You for Real?
Last season, Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson won NFL MVP. Through the first half of this season, Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray has been even better. pic.twitter.com/yKf4MSNofk
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 12, 2020
Just when we all thought Lamar Jackson was the next big thing in football – real or fantasy – not only does he regress substantially but someone came along and did even better. As the tweet notes above, not only is Kyler Murray outpacing Jackson this year (Murray is on pace for 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards; Jackson is on page for 3,000 passing yards and 900 rushing yards), but Murray is outpacing Jacksons’ 2019, MVP-level season, too.
As the season’s gone on, Murray has also closed the gap when it comes to dynasty ADP:
Dynasty Impact: As far as the dynasty value for both, it really is a case of trading places. Last year, Jackson was putting up elite fantasy numbers while Murray, as a rookie, was in the QB1/2 category. The roles are reversed now as Murray is near the top of the list while Jackson is just another fantasy quarterback. But the lesson should be that it’s rare for any quarterback to replicate elite stats every single year but not as rare for them to be a bona fide QB1. In single-quarterback leagues, having a solid QB1 just isn’t that difficult which means you should not be trading for one.
Having said that, the discussion will turn to which one of the two is better. Personally, I might lean Murray. He was drafted for the offense he’s in and it’s built for gaudy fantasy numbers like his. Meanwhile, Jackson had gaudy numbers last year too, but it was partly due to extreme efficiency. The Ravens were literally dead-last in pass attempts but still led the league in passing touchdowns. If you’re forced to choose or can do a swap, I’d go Murray.
Jet Stream
Jets expected to give Lamical Perine more work https://t.co/jKHfr2IPCd
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) November 11, 2020
It’s rare that a fourth-round draft pick gets a half-season audition to be a starter next year. Then again, we’re dealing with the New York Jets who cut their starter (Le’Veon Bell) earlier in the season only to immediately replace him with the 37-year old (Frank Gore) they signed in the off-season. Not surprisingly, they’re now on their third option, Lamical Perine.
In his limited snaps as a rookie thus far, Perine hasn’t exactly shined. He’s gained just 169 yards on 47 carries, averaging a little over 3.5 yards per carry. He also doesn’t appear to be trusted in the passing game either, seeing no more than three targets in any game this season.
Dynasty Impact: Normally, I would be ok with spending a low pick on a, seemingly, sure thing when it comes to touches. But the Jets are so bad that it may not matter if Perine is leading the team in carries. They may not be carrying it much if they’re behind all the time. Not to mention, the Jets are well on their way to a top pick along with a complete regime change which doesn’t bode well for anyone currently on the roster let alone a fourth-round running back. Even at the price, it would cost – a late second or third-rounder in 2021 – I would pass on Perine.
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