Breakouts and Busts Through the Halfway Point

John DiBari

As we continue through the NFL season, the halfway point is always an excellent place to assess your teams and players. It is an opportune time to evaluate which players are under and over-performing at this point too. After week four, I looked at the breakouts and busts, and now with most teams halfway through the year, I’m back at it.

Similarly to what I did after week four, I looked at DLF’s start-up ADP from August and compared it to where players rank at their respective positions through week nine. The biggest difference this time was that I compared players based on points per game since not all teams have had their byes and to account for time missed due to injuries. Additionally, I only looked at players who have played four or more games and tried not to include anyone I identified as a breakout or bust in the week four edition.

Quarterback

Breakouts

Justin Herbert, QB LAC (difference in ADP and current positional point-per-game rank:+18)

If the Chargers’ team doctor didn’t stab Tyrod Taylor in the lungs, who knows how long it would’ve been until we saw Herbert’s stellar rookie campaign. On the year, Herbert is only the QB23, but per game, Herbert is QB5 on the season, with only six starts under his belt. So far, the sixth overall pick looks like the real deal.

Ryan Tannehill, QB TEN (+16)

I’ve never been a big believer in Tannehill, but it’s starting to look like I’m wrong. Over his 19 games in Tennessee, Tannehill has thrown 39 touchdowns and only nine interceptions while averaging 240 yards per game. This season, Tannehill is QB9 per game and seems to be worth every penny of his new 118-million dollar deal and his QB25 pre-season ADP.

Honorable Mention:

Derek Carr (+10)

Busts

Sam Darnold, QB NYJ (-17)

He may be injured right now, but Darnold has played six games this season, and per game, he is nearly a QB4. Not THE QB4, but a QB4. He’s currently the QB35 on a per-game basis. The 2020 Jets are on pace to be one of the worst offenses in NFL history. A healthy Darnold isn’t going to help things much. He’s looking like a bust for fantasy and real life.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF (-11)

Much like Darnold, Jimmy G has played six games but now finds himself on the shelf due to injuries. The 49ers have been decimated by injuries, especially at receiver and running back, so Garappolo’s disappointing year may be partially attributed to that fact. But QB32 on the year per game isn’t getting it done for fantasy owners.

Dishonorable Mention:

Drew Lock (-10)

Running Back

Breakouts

Chris Carson, RB SEA (+23)

Carson was being drafted as the 29th running back off the board this off-season and is RB6 per game through week nine. Not too bad. The Seahawks’ offense is clicking, and getting any piece of it that you can is likely going to lead to fantasy success. DeeJay Dallas is filling in decently while Carson is injured, but not so well that Carson is at risk of losing his job in 2020.

Nyheim Hines, RB IND (+24)

Hines was one of my favorite targets this off-season. Philip Rivers likes to check down and target his running backs, and Hines is his new receiving option out of the backfield since arriving in Indianapolis. After being drafted later than the 12th round as the 56th back off the board, he’s currently the RB32. He’s not a league winner, but Hines brings valuable depth to your rosters, given the injuries we’ve seen this year.

Antonio Gibson, RB WAS (+20)

A darling of many in the dynasty community during rookie drafts, Gibson’s emergence was slow and steady, and his role has increased with the team. Somewhat surprisingly, Gibson was only being selected as the 40th running back off the board as recently as August. He probably should’ve been taken approximately 15 spots higher, and not coincidentally, through nine weeks, he’s been the RB20.

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Jones (+13), James Conner (+9), Chase Edmonds (+19), Giovani Bernard (+38)

Busts

Jonathan Taylor, RB IND (-13)

I closed the breakouts looking at an over-performing rookie, and we’ll start the busts with an underperforming rookie. Many in the industry loved Taylor coming in, and he saw his start-up ADP climb as high as 13th overall as the tenth running back selected. An eight-game sample probably isn’t indicative of what we can expect over his career, but given the price to acquire him, Taylor has let owners down thus far in 2020.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC (-13)

Let’s keep the rookie train rolling along. CEH was taken ahead of Taylor, as the fifth running back being taken, primarily based on landing spot as he found himself as the starter on one of the league’s best offenses. As if Edwards-Helaire didn’t have enough troubles through the first half of the year, he now has to compete for touches with the newly acquired Le’Veon Bell as well for the remainder of 2020.

Dishonorable Mention:

Leonard Fournette (-16), Devin Singletary (-9)

Wide Receiver

Breakouts

Jamison Crowder, WR NYJ (+47)

Prior to last week, Crowder was leading the league in targets per game at 11.5. He was 16th in targets last season with 122 and came out of the gates strong no matter how awful the Jets have been. Fantasy football is a game of volume, and Crowder was seeing volume. So much so, in fact, that per game, Crowder is WR11 – a vast improvement over his WR58 ADP.

Corey Davis, WR TEN (+40)

Fourth-year breakout! It’s taken a while, but Davis seems to finally be living up to his 5th overall draft pick status. He’s not blowing the league out of the water, but is currently WR28 on the year, a considerable jump from his pre-season WR68 ADP. Before he laid a goose egg in week eight, he was as high as WR15 on a points-per-game basis. I’ve always loved Davis and hope he can keep this up.

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA (+21)

See above: Carson, Chris. The Seattle offense is clicking and dragging everyone along with it. Don’t look now, but Lockett is the WR5 on the season, and per game, he’s third. Let everyone else get all excited about DK Metcalf, get yourself some Lockett at a fraction of the price. There’s no indication that Lockett can’t keep this up for another eight weeks.

Honorable Mention:

DK Metcalf (+13), Tyler Boyd (+16), Robby Anderson (+48)

Busts

DJ Chark, WR JAC (-5)

Coming off of a sophomore season where fantasy GMs saw Chark breakout with over 1,000 yards and eight scores, big things were expected from Chark in year three. So far, through seven games this year Chark is averaging the 24th most points at receiver. This is largely due to his week nine explosion with Jake Luton under center. Prior to last week, Chark was 39th in points per game despite leading the Jaguars in targets. This off-season may present a rare buy-low opportunity for those who are looking to acquire some shares unless Luton continues to pepper him with targets.

Kenny Golladay, WR DET (-24)

This breaks my heart. A late second-round pick in rookie dynasty start-ups, 2020, was going to be Kenny G’s big year. An injury derailed the start of the season, and now he’s banged up again. But, injuries aside, Golladay is only WR35 on a points-per-game basis. That’s not what we were expecting or hoping for this season.

Dishonorable Mention:

Mike Evans (-25), Jerry Jeudy (-21), Michael Gallup (-33)

Tight End

Breakouts

TJ Hockenson, TE DET (+5)

One of last year’s favorite rookies appears to be taking the next step forward. The hype affected his ADP as we saw him drafted as a TE1, going ninth at the position, but he’s overperformed and is TE4 so far. Hockenson has all the upside in the world; this might be the start of a decade’s worth of top-12 finishes.

Jared Cook, TE NO (+12)

I’m not, nor have I ever been, a Cook fan, but here we are. Cook’s ADP was likely a product of his age (33), as he’s been productive, but he was discounted too much, being selected as the 23rd tight end taken. So far, as one of the few pieces of the Saints’ offense to remain healthy all year, he’s been the TE11 on the year. Michael Thomas‘ return should impact his production, but he’ll likely keep cruising to a top-12 finish.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Ebron (+12)

Busts

Zach Ertz, TE PHI (-17) and Dallas Goedert, TE (-9)

I’ve lumped both Eagles’ tight ends together. Ertz, for years, has been a steady performer at the position, and when he did miss time, Goedert filled in seamlessly. They’ve played six and four games, respectively, but despite playing alongside a completely decimated receiving corps, they’ve done nothing with their playing time. Both Ertz and Goedert were drafted in the top ten at the position but are now TE22 and TE19, respectively, through nine weeks.

Mike Gesicki, TE MIA (-10)

You can’t deny that Gesicki is an athletic, measurable freak. But is he a good football player? At least for fantasy, it’s not looking like it. The TE21 after being drafted as the TE11, Gesicki looks to be letting owners down again. It looks like he’ll have a TE2 ceiling going forward at best unless Tua Tagovailoa‘s emergence bumps up his stock.

Dishonorable Mention:

Austin Hooper (-14), Tyler Higbee (-4), Irv Smith Jr (-19)

As we look back at the first half of the season, as always, we’ve had quite a few busts and breakouts. And looking back at my breakdown after week four, we’ve seen several players emerge as new fantasy-relevant assets. Will they be one-year wonders or annual stalwarts at their positions? Only time will tell, but several players are emerging as fantasy contributors who need to be on everyone’s radar.

Conversely, several busts are currently sinking fantasy teams, but a few might be presenting ideal buy-low situations. I’ll be revisiting this following week 12 to prep for the fantasy playoffs, and more importantly, the rapidly approaching off-season, so be on the lookout.

john dibari