Tuesday Transactions: Week Ten
We are officially halfway through the fantasy season. What a crazy season it has been to date. Paths are starting to emerge for many dynasty teams and after a weekend of many low scores, sniped touchdowns and more injuries, the road to a title or the punt toward next year is becoming more and more clear. Regardless of the direction you head, here are five transactions to consider for week ten.
Derek Carr, QB LV – Buy
Carr has lingered as a low-end QB2 in dynasty for the past few years and to be clear, I do not envision him rising that far above this range in the foreseeable future. He is currently QB28 in the October ADP but given the competitiveness of the Raiders in 2020 and the attrition ahead of him, this likely settles around QB22 or QB23 when the latest run of ADP emerges.
After all, job security is driving almost every quarterback outside of the top 15 and Carr appears to have earned another year in Los Angeles no matter how this campaign ends. His ceiling is limited given the type of offense the Raiders run but consider Carr a slightly younger version of Kirk Cousins. Both are proven they can keep an offense afloat and provide spike week during the right matchup.
The Move – In desperation, I would consider paying a late 2021 first-round pick for Carr in a 12 or more team superflex league. Ideally, the better move is to pivot off a riskier quarterback such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers in-exchange for Carr. The ultimate outcome gets you a quarterback to use for the rest of the season and guarantees you a bit more security next season.
Brandin Cooks, WR HOU – Sell
This one might be a bit controversial given the ultra-consistency of Cooks during his career. The 27-year old has really heated up his season and is currently on pace for over 200 PPR points and more than 1,000 yards. The narrative that he is back to his old self is coming back around and this presents a perfect selling opportunity.
Despite the production, Cooks’ future may not be in Houston and tied to Deshaun Watson. The Texans appear to be planning a complete makeover in their wide receiver room and have an out on Cooks after this season. Moving teams is no shock for Cooks and I would not be surprised if we see it again after this campaign. If he changes team for the fourth time, his value will surely fall.
The Move – Regardless of the format, I will accept any first-round pick for Cooks. Given the depth at the position, the better bet might be getting a second-round pick and another receiver with significant upside. KJ Hamler, Travis Fulgham and Anthony Miller all present enough intrigue in this value range to consider in a pivot deal off Cooks.
James Robinson, RB JAC – Buy
Sometimes as fantasy analysts, we come full circle. Had you asked me about Robinson a month ago, in the midst of his crazy usage and while we were still trying to figure out what this season would look like, I was all in as a seller. In fact, I sold my only exposure to him along with a second-round pick for a first-round pick next season. In hindsight, that was a mistake.
The running back landscape is looking very uncertain outside of the top 20 for next year and at this point, barring injury, I would include Robinson in that group. With the likes of Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette, and Le’Veon Bell falling out, and the uncertainty of names like James Conner, Kenyan Drake and Chris Carson as pending free agent, the security of Robinson could be appealing.
The Move – The rumblings of his difficult rest-of-season schedule have begun. A regime change is likely coming in Jacksonville and the current owner may be seeking to get out before the season ends. Consider pivoting off one of the names listed above by adding a second-round pick and hedging for a little more security next year. I expect the Jaguars to bring in company with Robinson in 2021, but he is a bet I would take if I am looking to secure a little less risk heading into the off-season.
George Kittle, TE SF – Sell
We are going to end this one with a bang. I bet you never thought you would see Kittle on the sell list. After all, numerous previous transaction articles discussed just how top-heavy the position currently stands and how big of an advantage it is to have one of the elites. Unfortunately, injuries happen and Kittle is no stranger to the injured reserve.
There is no debating that the 27-year old is the premier player at the position when you consider the four years he has on Travis Kelce. There is no doubt that he will continue to provide the positional advantage over the next few seasons. With that said, if you are a contender, he will not help you anymore in 2020 and moving him should be considered.
The Move – I have traded Kittle for Darren Waller and a pick or upgrade at another position. TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert and Noah Fant also present reasonable pivots if the additional piece is enough to get the deal done. In tight-end premium leagues with at-least ten starters, a contender should consider swapping Kittle for one of these four tight ends and look to upgrade elsewhere to seal the deal. Target a team out of the race that will value an injured Kittle a bit more while he is not scoring points.
Salvon Ahmed, RB MIA – Add
Nobody saw Myles Gaskin coming. After trading for Matt Breida and signing Jordan Howard, the Dolphins unexpectedly made Gaskin their lead back and through eight weeks, got RB19 production from the former Washington Husky. Unfortunately, after suffering a knee injury, Gaskin heads to injured reserve and could miss the rest of the fantasy regular season. Breida missed week nine with an injury and Ahmed took advantage as he led the Dolphins in snaps with a 46 percent share. Ahmed followed Gaskin as the starting running back for Washington in college and could do the same in the NFL.
The Move – Add Ahmed on waivers. In leagues with 28 or more roster spots, he is worth up to 15 percent of your budget. The Dolphins appear to be looking for a hot hand and evaluating for the future. This is a possible back you can use down the stretch and that does not come available much in deeper dynasty leagues.
CONCLUSION
Through nine weeks, the time to begin the focus on the home stretch is here. For contenders, every move is looking ahead to the upcoming matchups and for those out of the race, all eyes are on the spring. If you have not picked a lane, decide quickly and do not be left standing in the middle without a direction heading into the second half of the season.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
