IDP Waiver Wire: Week Ten
Notable IDP Assets on Bye this week
DL: Grady Jarrett, Aldon Smith, Demarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, Quinnen Williams
LB: Deion Jones, Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, Neville Hewitt
DB: Keanu Neal, Trevon Diggs, Daniel Sorenson
I don’t know about you, but the fact we are already at week ten is putting me in my feels. In the midst of a global pandemic and an election that couldn’t divide us any more than we currently are, football could not be a more welcomed distraction in our day-to-day lives.
As we start to get the full picture on the 2020-21 season, we will start to focus on some IDP assets that will either help you get through that final push to make the playoffs, or will outline some players who may not have consistently positive matchups the rest of the year, but will have great matchups in those playoff weeks if you are bold enough to roll them out. As always, thank you so much for reading along and I hope this article has been helpful! Our hit rate this year has been absolutely incredible, so let’s hang onto that momentum for a few more weeks!
The gist of this column is simple: finding guys that are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 12 Hits, 10 Average, 8 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 18 Hits, 9 Average, 8 Busts (Hewitt pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week Nine Observations
- Arik Armstead had an embarrassing dud after he was listed as one of my favorite waiver adds of the week (even though we knew his matchup was tough against Green Bay). If you picked him up, don’t lose faith! After one more tough matchup in week ten, I like his outlook for the rest of the season.
- Josey Jewell is definitely “back,” posting ten total tackles in each of his past two games.
- I know Seattle didn’t have much to be proud of walking off the field on Sunday, but man is it refreshing to see all-Pro talents like Jamal Adams back for us to admire again. Injuries suck.
- Oh my goodness, Darius Leonard. The heart and soul of the Colts’ defense runs through him, but keep reading to see which other Colts defender I like for week ten…
- Not only is Matt Judon outplaying rookie Patrick Queen, but fellow rookie linebacker Malik Harrison has been over the past few weeks as well. Queen’s ceiling has proven to be among the highest in the league already, but I am benching him for now until I see his floor start to rise.
- DeShon Elliott is a safety who’s done it all this season in terms of splash plays. He is probably rostered somewhere, but if not, he is a steady DB2 or DB3 and a great dynasty add.
- Sam Franklin had a fantastic game filling in for Jeremy Chinn against the Chiefs, but it isn’t anything to take stock in. Once Chinn returns, Franklin will not be worth the roster spot.
- There is not a start-able linebacker option on the Kansas City Chiefs right now. The only one I am interested in is 2020 second-round pick Willie Gay Jr (obviously).
- I really hope you listened and picked up Tyrell Adams once Benardrick McKinney went down for the season. I don’t know about you, but he has straight-up saved my season in a few of my IDP leagues.
- Trevon Diggs has his bye week next weekend, but he is a classic case of the often-targeted rookie cornerback. Pick him up and take advantage until he becomes talented enough to discourage opposing teams from throwing directly at him all day long.
- Isaiah Simmons is starting to get some real playing time!! He posted four solo tackles against the Dolphins yesterday, and it appears his full-time role is coming sooner rather than later. Sell Jordan Hicks before it’s too late.
Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters who have tough matchups ahead in week nine who you may consider benching for a dart throw found below:
DL: Josh Allen, Chase Young, Montez Sweat
LB: Jordan Hicks, Micah Kiser, Josey Jewell, Alexander Johnson
DB: Justin Reid, Devin McCourty, Rayshawn Jenkins
Good luck this week! It’s about time for that final playoff push! How time flies…
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Entering week nine, these were the top 25 in Disruption Score across the league (minimum 20 tackles).
Defensive Line
Leonard Williams, DE NYG (Season Disruption Score: 15.81 ~ DL #25 overall)
It may feel gross rostering a member of the New York Giants’ defensive line, but Williams has been a very bright spot over the past few weeks. After amassing a whopping half of one sack over 15 games spanning from 2017-2019, Williams is finally back, posting five sacks through New York’s first nine games this year. Young stud Dexter Lawrence is definitely helping clog up the middle of the line, which allows Williams to get around the edge and actually post disruptive numbers this year.
New York gets a tasty rematch against Carson Wentz in week ten, where Williams will look to make a splash play or two in what will otherwise be a disastrous game to watch (just pop him in your lineup and check his point total Sunday night…)
DaQuan Jones, DT TEN (Season Disruption Score: 8.45 ~ DL #56 overall)
Jones is more of a “play him if you are desperate for a defensive tackle” option, but Jones is a player I have rostered as a stash in nearly all of my IDP leagues. Jones came away with seven tackles against the Bears yesterday, and is walking into another positive matchup on Thursday night against the Colts, who are surrendering 14 points per week to defensive tackles.
Linebacker
Jonathan Greenard, OLB HOU (Disruption Score: 10.97 in debut Sunday)
For those of you who are down yet *another* quality starter with the news of Brennan Scarlett’s fractured forearm, thankfully his replacement will have standalone value in Scarlett’s place. Third-round rookie Greenard came into an extremely tight game for a Texans defense that has dealt with more than their fair share of brutal injuries in 2020.
Greenard played well all things considered, and he will have another favorable matchup in week ten against the run-heavy Browns. I’d start him as an LB4 with upside, or a solid OLB/EDGE if your IDP league is one of the few who start that position in its own slot.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Josh Sweat, DE PHI (Week Ten, @ New York Giants)
You already saw me recommend Leonard Williams above, and the same logic is true in playing Sweat this week if you’re in a pinch. Both teams’ offensive lines are…well, atrocious… and the only redeemable value in this game will be found on splash play sacks or pick-sixes.
If you don’t believe me, just try to go back and watch the first three-quarters of their first matchup just two and a half weeks ago. Any Eagles defensive end available on your waiver wire is a solid play this week, but Sweat was simply my estimation as to which player may actually still be on the wire.
Shaq Lawson, DE MIA (Week Ten, vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
Lawson has played extremely well this season, but the reason his sack total is so low is simply that Emmanuel Ogbah cannot be stopped. I mean, Ogbah has let two of his teammates find the end zone due to his sack-forced fumble splash plays in consecutive weeks.
The Dolphins are finally looking like a legitimate football team again after years of mediocrity, and Justin Herbert was hit seven times by the Raiders, who rush the passer among the lowest rates in the NFL. I am starting Lawson next week and simply hoping Ogbah finally lets his teammates in on the fun, or there are just plenty of sack opportunities to go around for both guys.
Linebacker
Bobby Okereke, LB IND (Week Ten, @ Tennessee)
Okereke is a solid linebacker, but we all know this is Darius Leonard’s team. Regardless, there will be plenty of IDP volume to go around on Thursday night, as the Titans and Derrick Henry are guaranteed to run the ball straight into the Colts linebackers at least 20-25 times. I like Okereke here in a matchup that should remain competitive throughout the night, giving Okereke enough scraps to manage fantasy relevance in Leonard’s gargantuan shadow.
Christian Kirksey, LB GBP (Week Ten, vs. Jacksonville)
I doubt Kirksey is necessarily on your waiver wire, but if you’ve read this far in the article and are playing in a redraft IDP league, Kirksey is a must-add (and is a must-start linebacker regardless in a dream matchup against the Jaguars).
Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to linebackers in 2020, and Green Bay has been cautious in bringing Kirksey back until he is perfectly healthy and ready to go. He managed exactly 12 tackles in each of his first two starts of the season at the beginning of the year, and I am listing him as a top-ten option this week as others may not realize he will be ready to return in week ten.
Defensive Backs
Buster Skrine, CB CHI (Week Ten, vs. Minnesota)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Skrine is someone who provides that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on in case the splash play doesn’t come through regardless. He has 23 tackles over the past four weeks, but he is still waiting on his first interception of the season.
Kirk Cousins has definitely played his best football over the past three weeks, but he is still bottom three in the league in total interceptions on the year. Skrine is a great home run Hail Mary for week ten in a game where Chicago looks to snap their three-game losing streak in a heated divisional battle.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
