Sunday Six Pack: Week Nine

Jeremy Schwob

Welcome to the Sunday Six Pack. I’ll be dedicating one beverage from my six pack for each of these things I’m watching with particular attention in week nine.

TENNESSEE TURNTABLE

Lost in the ultimate delayed gratification that Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen), Peter Howard (@pahowdy), and I are experiencing during the beautiful weather of Corey Davis SZN, is that the entire Titans offense is fun. See Peter’s ‘Target Share Report: Week Eight’ for the full Davis electric show.

Gone are the days of “exotic smashmouth.” This truly seems to be an offense that can support multiple fantasy assets on any given weekly basis. Because of the intrigue of Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, the aforementioned Davis, as well as tight end Jonnu Smith, it may be difficult to figure out who will step up to the table in your lineup.

Smith in particular has been someone I’ve been on forever. My breakout season prediction was looking mighty fine until he was slowed by an ankle injury in week six. It’s fair to wonder whether he is fully over the ankle injury he incurred.

However, his lack of designation on recent injury reports, as well as his 81% snap share in week eight suggest that he is healthy. What is probably more concerning is his route usage which has dropped from 27 in week one to 13, 12, and 18 during weeks six through eight, respectively. His 130 routes run thus far (18.6 per game; 55.6%) only ranks 26th among tight ends. I’ll be looking to see if Smith can get back on track with Chicago’s stout defense attempting to keep Henry and the outside receivers at bay. An absent Adam Humphries may funnel even more work Smith’s way in the middle of the field.

AROB & JROB

Venturing to the other sideline in the same game, Allen Robinson has certainly proven time and time again to be quarterback-proof. But when will Matt Nagy and Nick Foles decide to just pepper him with targets? He is second in the league in targets with 77 targets (9.6 per game) along with a 24.7% target share (13th) on 303 routes run (fourth) this season. All this is to go along with his 833 air yards (fourth), 50 receptions (seventh), and 631 receiving yards (sixth). He should be on the verge of a Keenan Allen or Davante Adams-type target game and a monster performance in a competitive game against the Titans.

James Robinson has been a wonderful bright spot this season for Jacksonville and dynasty owners alike. While it looked like his hot start through week three may have been cooling off, Robinson exploded again in week seven. Coming out of the bye, there is more change in Jacksonville. With Gardner Minshew banged up temporarily (or permanently for tanking purposes), we will see how James Robinson is impacted by getting his first dose of Allen Robinson quarterback treatment.

With the downgrade at signal-caller, the offense may have more trouble moving down the field. However, a soft, potential shootout matchup against a porous Houston defense keeps my confidence stable for this week. Hopefully this is more of a temporary quarterback issue and doesn’t totally derail Robinson’s breakout campaign. If he continues to average 3.07 yards after contact per attempt, then it will be tough for anyone to stop him.

down by the Rivers

Philip Rivers was always probably safe this season due to his $25 million contract and prior relationship with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. However, struggles after the first few games led to press conference questions regarding whether Reich considered benching the quarterback. Such a move would have signaled the end of Rivers, possibly forcing his Matt Foley-esque retirement to a van down by the river.

However, consecutive three-touchdown, strong performances have Indy tied atop the AFC South. Up next is a meeting with fellow 5-2 foe, Baltimore, for what should be a true litmus test for this Colts team. Here’s to hoping we see an inspiring performance from old man Rivers. We’ll either see one worthy of a post-game motivational speaker with his version of “Go For It” or the coffee table-destroying version that many Charger fans felt as the playoffs slipped away.

ANTONIO GIBSZN

Appearing in the same tweet above as James Robinson displaying a PPR points-per-touch rate of 0.90 or higher is Antonio Gibson. Coming off his brightest performance in a dismantling of the helpless Cowboys (20-128-1) and the bye week to rest up and gameplan for increased opportunity for the proclamation of GibSZN. While snap shares remained nearly identical between Gibson (48%) and JD McKissic (47%) in week eight, there is still massive work for Gibson to take on. The passing game, in particular, illuminates where Gibson could really take off with only one target coming during his breakout week seven performance.

Efficiency-wise, Gibson has also led the league forcing a missed tackle on 26% of his runs (per PFF Fantasy Football). He has also averaged 2.49 yards after contact per attempt. Success such as this has propelled Gibson to become PFF’s highest-graded rookie running back.

MIAMI AMALGAMATION

With Myles Gaskin placed on IR after an MCL injury, we will have at least three weeks to consider if any options can be viable in the short-term or even alter his workload when he returns. Although Gaskin was not exactly efficient, boy did he have opportunity. As a qualifier, this was of course mainly with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, but Gaskin was 11th in snap share, 15th in carries, sixth in targets, and sixth in red-zone touches among running backs. So, who might be able to fill in and is it meaningful?

This gets us to the combination (i.e., amalgamation) that is the current Miami backfield. We have Matt Breida, working through an injury of his own (hamstring), Jordan Howard, who has largely been inactive of late, newly acquired DeAndre Washington, and the Laird and savior, Patrick Laird (cc: @peteroverzet). Breida is the one that is most intriguing to me here, but we’ll have to wait at least another week on that. If you’re a Gaskin fan or believer, I think you just hope to see some weak performances in his absence. Ultimately, strong performances could earn continued opportunity when Gaskin returns. In turn, this may decrease the likelihood of continuing to make his case for Miami’s lead role in 2021.

Round Tua

Speaking of the Dolphins… as Miami battles for a wild card playoff spot with a legit defense, we will get to see heralded rookie Tua Tagovailoa start with another week under his fin. After throwing just 22 passes on a dominating defensive performance against the Rams, he now faces off against Kyler Murray. With less reliance on the running game without Myles Gaskin (MCL) or Matt Breida (hamstring), it should be a better opportunity to see what his arm has to offer. It should be a fun one in the desert, flipping back and forth with the wild west shootout (Raiders vs Chargers), while the Steelers bring to life the StopStopHe’sAlreadyDead.gif.

TOMPA Brady’s Terrifying TRIAD

Heading into superflex dynasty startups this off-season, Tom Brady was going in the range of young, less proven guys like Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew, and Dwayne Haskins, mid-career guys such as Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton, as well as fellow old guys like Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers. Scanning those, he seems like an obvious bargain. I fortunately ended up with a lot of Brady and Roethlisberger because I leaned toward their weaponry without fear of their age. And for Brady, that gets even better this week.

With the installment of Antonio Brown in the lineup alongside heathier Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Brady is fully loaded. That’s to go along with Rob Gronkowski at tight end as well as Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones in the running game. Our own Ken Kelly discussed the dynasty impact of the AB addition.

Similar to my comments about Tennessee at the top of this article, it may be difficult to know which piece of the offense will have the best game from week to week. In these instances, I lean toward acquiring the quarterback. Fortunately, if you can’t afford those in similarly loaded situations like Dak Prescott (pre-injury) or Ryan Tannehill, Brady and Roethlisberger are there for you.

Brady has thrown for 2,189 yards and a 20:4 touchdown to interception ratio at the halfway point in the season. Further, he has the most deep passes (15+ air yards) with 68, per ProFootballReference. Brady is the league leader in “big-time throws” with 26, per PFF. Adding Mr. Big Chest may only lead to more Big Tom Throws. Now with a full complement of weapons with a half-season in the Arians system under his belt, the sky is the limit for #OldManQB success.

jeremy schwob