DLF Quarterly Clinic: Second Quarter
The DLF Quarterly Clinic is where our writer, Jeremy Schwob, takes you through dynasty issues experienced by DLF staff during the four sections of the season. He highlights psychological undertones, reflections, and questions to consider for the next quarter of the season.
Walk-in Clinic
What dynasty difficulties are you encountering recently? This may include player expectations, value shifts, roster construction, trade considerations, depth chart changes, injury impacts, and more.
DLF staffer: Scott Connor (@CharlesChillFFB)
“We are at a point now where wide receivers do not matter. The only ones with any sustainable, locked in value are Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, who are literally target-magnets. This is due more to situation than anything where they are force-fed volume.”
Therapist notes: extreme language, locked in “value,” situation
“After these guys? All the wide receivers are volatile. Their dynasty value is driven by their profile, current situation… and I mean CURRENT situation (i.e., what their offense looks like this week), and finally the community buzz. Expounding on the last point, I’ve found myself loving that I have DK Metcalf, not because he is anything special, but because I get a nice value boost knowing there is certain to be someone who I can sell him to for another wide receiver plus a significant amount more. This player could then outproduce Metcalf for a number of years.”
Therapist notes: cutoff, immediacy of current, community value, certain, possibility of could with impossibility to falsify
“I’ve made the argument that players like Courtland Sutton and Odell Beckham Jr. are not top 30 wide receivers. Truthfully the market agrees. Not because they are bad necessarily, but because they are replaceable. Their situation? Volatile. Their points? Duplicated by dozens and dozens of others. Their reality? Scoring 0 points the rest of season.”
Therapist notes: selected WRs, injury, half-season remaining, dozens
“We see wide receiver as a safe position. It isn’t. It’s the opposite, because like an economy where we print money without any real assets to back it, scarcity lacks. The value is a facade only. When push comes to shove, on the trade market and in the midst of trying to win, scarcity is all that matters.”
Therapist notes: ambiguity of definition of safe (harder to refute), value as façade, finality language
DLF staffer: Jon Moorfoot (@JRock1t23)
“Choosing if/when to take a hit on a player when looking to trade. In some of my leagues where I am trying to rebuild, I have been trying to move some players but have been struggling to do so at what feels like the right value. Is there a point where I should just move them on for whatever I can get or should I stick to my guns?”
Therapist notes: if vs when, rebuild, right value, lability, whatever
“More of an issue in smaller leagues but trying to trade players away when almost every team seems to be in a rebuild. I generally prefer to build teams that can complete for multiple seasons as opposed to going all-in for one season, but maybe in those leagues where I am struggling to move players on I should pivot and go into win-now mode for one season and go against my normal strategy.”
Therapist notes: illiquidity of sub-market, win-now, multiple vs one season, against normal
Analysis
“Value” changes
Both our staffer walk-ins, Scott Connor and Jon Moorfoot, mentioned difficulties related to value. I have some strong opinions on our utility of “value” as a stable and universally important construct, that I won’t elaborate on here (see Session Five: Psychology of Value article). Rather, I’ll remain focused on the cognitive processes at play for Scott and Jon.
While I know Scott has done some great work digging into this view against wide receivers, I also can’t help but feeling this is a personal attack on me bringing this difficulty to the Walk-in Clinic. It reminds me of clients who overreach with questions to their therapist about the therapist’s age, sexual orientation, political or religious affiliation, marital status, or even more forceful, personal questions that communicate boundary issues.
Jokes aside, I actually really enjoy the strong opinion that Scott has been frustrated with the dynasty community about. And as a psychotherapist, I’ll maintain my technical neutrality here (i.e., not bringing in my opinion or reacting in a biased way, instead helping the client to explore their perspectives and related difficulties). I’d like to agree that there is certainly merit to Scott’s opinion. He’s a bright guy, does his research, and writes about it very well.
However, I would also like to question whether he could have similar complaints about running backs as well. Aside from the scarcity emphasis that he places, from a value standpoint with eight out of the top 12 players in the most recent DLF dynasty ADP pulled by Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) are running backs. This would seem to suggest that there is more “value” to capitalize on with such community buzz.
🚨🚨🚨November DLF dynasty ADP, Round One:
1. McCaffrey
2. Barkley
3. Kamara
4. Edwards-Helaire
(Tie) Taylor
6. Metcalf
(Tie) Elliott
8. Cook
9. AJ Brown
10. Sanders
11. Adams
12. Lamb— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 2, 2020
Similarly, I’d encourage similar questions and criticisms that were presented of wide receivers to be afforded to running backs as well. Are these running backs so different talent-wise than other running backs or is it similarly an attraction to usage at the top (like the target magnet wide receivers)? Therefore, I think it is important to broaden the conversation to value overall, considering how much this first-round ADP churns from year to year to year (and even quicker at times).
Speaking of Ryan and value, he has been running a series of Twitter polls with the #dynastyvaluestudy throughout the season. These have been tremendous ways of gathering the pulse of how reactive dynasty managers are at times while still collecting a significant sample of the dynasty community.
Ultimately though, I question whether this is truly a study of dynasty value. I don’t question what Ryan is doing, as I think this is fabulous data for all of us to consider. Rather, I want us to contemplate what it is we are seeing. Should value be this fickle? Certainly, significant things happen that alter a player’s career (i.e., significant injury, new team, new contract, etc.). However, such radical changes across a few short weeks seem to result from mismatched expectations and outcomes, which is where I really question whether anything substantive is actually happening.
Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire a different player than in week one, such that he a less valuable? Chase Claypool popped for a few weeks rather unexpectedly, but does that mean he is all of a sudden worth so much more? The community says so, but again I ask us to question what that means.
It seems to mean that we feel that it should mean that these players have had shifts, and therefore the players are often traded for more or selected higher during in-season mock drafts. But that certainly doesn’t mean that is the right decision. I’m not suggesting that we can know what the right decision is… I’m a psychologist, not a psychic. But by observing these changes that are happening in the #dynastyvaluestudy and coming to conclusions, that this is how a player’s “value” tries to provide that unrealistic clairvoyance and immediate gratification.
Again, value to me is a valiant effort at trying to quantify the unquantifiable. Trying to attach an objective, factual measure of something that is almost entirely subjective. As always, use it as a helpful tool, datapoint, discussion point, and negotiation piece. But by knowing what value actually represents, you can be less reactive to quick shifts in the community perception of value and resist the urge to make momentary decisions.
Injuries (again)
Scott mentioned a few receivers who are losing perceived value due to injures (i.e., Sutton and Beckham Jr.). I absolutely understand the decision to drop players in rankings, ADP/mock ADP, and perceived value when they are out for the season. But looking prospectively, where do we expect them to be in drafts next summer? What about their perceived value, ADP, ranking, etc. in week five of next season when they are presumably back healthy and producing?
But before answering those questions, first consider why they dropped. Certainly the injury. If they are out for the season or a significant portion of the season, then it is likely a major injury. But why else? A major factor that players drop in ranking, ADP/mock ADP, and perceived value is because they lose the expected fantasy points currently and a year of their production. Though, if we again think prospectively to next year, neither of those are particularly important.
Of course, age always is a vital datapoint, as is the aforementioned injury severity. Nevertheless, next year we are talking about that being players like Saquon Barkley, George Kittle, Dak Prescott, in addition to Sutton and Beckham Jr. All guys around their prime ages. Is that one year that important? Is that production that now has zero impact on your 2021 lineup still important?
I’m a bit more risk-averse to injury than others, after seeing what the many wonderful and trusted medical professionals who contribute to the fantasy industry have to say. I suggest beginning with them some of them to determine your thoughts on determining the importance of value changes. Beyond that, it’s also important to realize what you bring to the table in the form of your interpretation, comfort, and decision-making.
Trades
Moving dynasty assets in trades will be pertinent at any point on the dynasty calendar. However, at the midpoint in the season, there are nuances like a fresh half-season of production (or lack thereof), perceived value changes, and upcoming dynasty playoffs. Our staffer, Jon Moorfoot, expressed his lability over attempts to trade his struggling players. There may be some anxiety occurring here for Jon about holding a depreciating asset, selling at a low point before the value buoys back, or both.
Consider the magnitude the decision has on your roster. If this is a core piece to the construction of your roster, selling to maintain the value may not be as beneficial considering you were factoring in the player’s position and his expected production profile. If this is a player less crucial to the composition of your roster, this is a time to let go of the anxiety and be aggressive whichever way you choose. This is even true if the player with a significant amount of perceived value, maybe that you added in a trade, used a luxury rookie draft pick on, or has received a significant boost in how he is viewed amongst the general community.
Remember, each decision (to hold or trade) is important to evaluate equally. Yielding to the fear of making the wrong move by trading (especially when it is based solely on a perceived value judgment) is letting your anxiety overtake you.
Another DLF staffer and walk-in to the DLF Quarterly Clinic: First Quarter, Shane Manila (@ShaneIsTheWorst), has been writing an in-season article series entitled “Flip or Stick” where he unpacks similar decisions of what to do with players. While the specific players you are having difficulty with may not appear in current iterations of the series, you can gather further insight into a process by which you can make a sound decision.
The final aspect related to trading difficulty is when there is a feeling that you “can’t trade the guy for anything.” That is almost always false. While I have noted the illiquidity of the submarkets that are dynasty leagues, for the most part a top 150 asset can be moved at any time. I’m sure you could trade that asset for a future third-round pick. You might not want to make that trade as you may feel that return is way too low. So, what about two third-round picks or a late second-round pick?
Basically, what you should be saying to yourself during your frustrated state is, “I can’t trade this player for what I want.” And that is likely because you are looking to trade such a player for a prior perceived value (if they have underperformed, been injured, etc.), or for more than their perceived value (if someone is exceeding expectations).
I frequently see this in therapy when working in a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) framework, where a client says they “Couldn’t do the skill-building homework” or they “Didn’t have the opportunity to practice an exposure technique.” I quickly reframe this and challenge them indicating that they could have done the homework and they did have the opportunity to practice, but they chose not to do so. This requires an important mentality shift that can also be beneficial for frustrated dynasty traders trying to move an asset. You almost always have the opportunity; it about whether or not you choose to do something.
Additional observations
Rankings changes SZN
Now that we have seen some rookies splash onto the scene, the “adjust your top five dynasty wide receivers SZN” seems to be in full force. Trying to deny the importance of age in dynasty is a fruitless endeavor. However, there seems to be this insatiable desire to succumb to the desire of becoming the earliest to rank a particular player the highest.
But I’m not sure that it’s something that should matter very much with no drafts occurring currently. If you’re using rankings to identify trade targets or if you’re attempting to play the perceived value game, I ask if there is something you gain from having a top-five dynasty wide receiver compared with a top-ten dynasty wide receiver?
With such a subjective process and so much fluctuation from year to year (if not month to month), what you’re acquiring or seeking is comfort. And unfortunately, that comfort guarantees very little. Certainly, don’t ignore such changes in rankings within the community, but use them to capitalize on those that are overly focused on the importance of ever-changing shifts.
Such ranking boosts for young players can lead to interesting automatic comparisons for similar players that have had slower starts for a variety of reasons. Wide receivers like Jalen Reagor and Bryan Edwards are automatically compared to those who are performing well because Reagor and Edwards have not yet been able to contribute.
Similar comparison difficulty carries across positions as we can be pleasantly surprised by excellent starts from Joe Burrow (which was more expected) and Justin Herbert (which is more of a surprise). However, the result seems to be an interesting impatience and even diminishing luster on someone like Tua Tagovailoa. To be clear, I don’t think there should be, but there seems to be as someone like Herbert shines while Tagovailoa is just now getting his fin wet.
This continues into running backs as Cam Akers is likely unfavorably compared to the other top rookie running backs, now including Antonio Gibson and James Robinson. These inherent comparisons are difficult to stop but should be challenged when they can. It is very nice to see the performance from those producing early. But if we drafted rookies solely for their first eight games of their rookie year, health included, this would be a vastly different game we play.
Fast forward
Now that we have a clearer picture of who the good teams and bad teams are, I would like you to consider what implications this has for your perception of dynasty assets heading into the off-season. Reflect on the accuracy of predictions and projections team strength heading into this season. If you were accurate in your expectations, then great. As always, be honest with yourself, as you gain nothing by ignoring your misses. If you were a ways off, what can you learn for next year about where you went wrong?
Finally, since many dynasty owners don’t do projections themselves, but rather rely on sites and podcasts to do so, consider how you will utilize such projections of teams and offenses. Decide how much you will weight your expectations of dynasty assets in that offense.
As our staffer, Scott Connor, mentioned in reference to his perception of wide receivers, he focuses mainly on the immediacy of current situation. I believe this can even generalize to offenses as a whole. We may have an idea of what an offense will look like, but so much changes even on a weekly basis. Therefore, it may be beneficial to remain skeptical during the off-season, especially when we constantly hear the community imploring the necessity of “getting a piece” of a certain offense.
Closing Thoughts
What is one thing that could happen that would significantly, positively impact your team during the next quarter of the season? What about negatively?
Which player do you need to display the most significant improvement as you finish off the regular season? Did your process, roster construction, injuries, etc. dictate such pressure on this player? How might you adjust your process going forward to avoid such a situation again?
On your successful rosters thus far, which player are you most nervous about depending on in the dynasty playoffs? Why is your trust so shaky?
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