Target Share Report: Week Eight
Welcome back to our weekly target share report where we take a look at player usage and try to understand and predict future usage from a dynasty perspective.
This week I want to try to incorporate some dynasty takes based on weekly performance. I’m stealing and converting a useful idea from Ryan Keeney (@rbkeeney) to do this.
@FF_Astronauts Expected Fantasy Points Review
– Rush & target % data
– Biggest takeaways
– Air yards
– Lucky ducks and dudsWeek 8 Edition…
Okay Lets Ride pic.twitter.com/bknpfCXa71
— Ryan for the people (@rbkeeney) November 3, 2020
In the above thread, Ryan ranked disappointing season performances from week eight using Fantasy points Over Expected. I’m hoping this could be a useful perspective for dynasty while the rest of the world tilts over their week nine start/sit decisions.
But we’ll start by looking at the overall landscape of player usage as always.
So, let’s get into it.
2020 Leaders in Target Share
We’re back up to five players with a 30% target share or more. As you know by now I hope, we’d be lucky to finish the season with that many getting that much.
Robby Anderson, WR CAR
Could this man catch a dang touchdown? Please. It just feels like a troll at this point.
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
See last week’s article for more information about how well he’s doing this year. However, also remember his 30% target share is inflated by his week seven target share of 52% (not even in Washington is that sustainable).
Keenan Allen, WR LAC
Feels like I forget to mention someone every week. Allen was that guy last week. Score one for touchdown regression and #TeamOldGuy. 85% of his games have seen seven targets of more and he’s a very good volume hog having a great season despite quarterback changes (though Justin Herbert is clearly raising his ceiling games back to where they were before) and Mike Williams putting up (spotty) good weeks.
We know his value is doomed to slide in dynasty based on age, but it continues to pay to invest in proven good players who get discounted because “maybe.” Yes, I can hear the AJ Green truthers groan from here, also the DeAndre Hopkins believers cheering.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN
Following on from the last entry, #TeamOldGuy gets more wins than losses.
Having said that, Thielen’s EPG tells us that week to week, you shouldn’t expect week eight to be the norm. That said, he has been over 25 PPR points three times this year and has a very nice floor (since week three he hasn’t been below 14 PPR points). However, his production is based on efficiency more than volume.
Travis Fulgham, WR PHI
I told you. I told you! I kid, but yes, Fulgham is a good player, and even Jalen Reagor’s return, with good results, didn’t completely obliterate that. He remains more of a 2020 play for upside. However, I look forward to the value drop in the off-season.
His ADP doesn’t seem so strong that he’s an impossible play for a contending team right now. Still waiting on November ADP to drop but in October ADP he was the WR111 in startups. Steal.
Week Eight’s biggest “underperformers”
According to rotoviz.com’s expected point’s formula, these seven players underperformed their expected points so badly they rank in the top ten worst performance, by position, this season. In other words, they are seven of the worst performances so far this year. It’s bad enough to be impressive.
As you can see from their FPOE/G this is something of a habit for all of them however a few stand out.
Jimmy Graham, TE Chi
Shock horror, a tight end is touchdown-dependent. Anyway… after my article a few years ago promising, no, ranting that good tight ends create themselves and are not a creation of “teams or quarterbacks that like to target tight ends”, Graham continues to be the proof.
Jarvis Landry, WR CLE
No, I don’t expect Landry to continue underperforming his volume this week going forward. However from a dynasty perspective, it’s time to put him and Odell Beckham on #TeamOldGuy, and buy for next season if and when their value is soft in your league. Efficiency is a season/redraft stat, volume is a dynasty one, as a rule.
Jared Goff, QB LAR
This is likely connected to Cooper Kupp’s week eight performance (Kupp’s week eight ranked 11th in underperforming wide receivers this season, so he missed the table by a hair). I’m not a big Goff fan, but his efficiency has been decent this year, despite a fairly disappointing performance from the team (again) overall.
Top 12 Quarterbacks in 2020 average around 5.6 FPOE, by the way. Quarterbacks depend largely on over efficiency to be fantasy significant. It’s worth keeping that in mind as Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson’s ADP may be dropping this season. It’s not that they aren’t good, it’s just that we elevate quarterback ADP’s too much when they spike inefficiency to produce a difference-making season. Most don’t repeat it, the outliers like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton who do it multiple times are, well, outliers.
I suspect this may sound like a Kyler Murray comment, but again, I’m not saying he’s not good, or won’t be again next year. I’m a fan. But Patrick Mahomes is probably the only player at the position who has ever justified an elevated ADP with production since we’ve been collecting ADP. Well, Peyton Manning too, I guess.
Anyway, stop it.
Will Goff do better next week? Sure, maybe, whatever, it’s the quarterback position, so stop caring so much. Ya know?
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
Is dynasty’s only move to buy players when their value falls and sell them when they rise? Maybe, sure, but it’s guessing which ones to apply the rule to that matters. What I’m saying is I’m not buying Taylor’s week eight usage or underperformance. Instead, I’m just buying Taylor.
Yes, I did say his college profile had a little too much “Trent Richardson-ness” to it… but why would I not lean into that after his latest – and worst – week? Because I was under the impression he’d been getting the more volume, and not doing much with it. In fact, on average, he has performed decently on his volume according to FPOE. He’s just not getting a lot of it.
He’s only had over 50% of his team’s attempts in three of his eight games so far, and week eight is the only time he’s really done badly with his volume. That’s much closer to what Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, and DeAndre Swift have been going through than I thought. And we are seeing them slowly work their way out of their committees, I believe, right now.
Now, I want to check in with Dave Wright’s (@ff_spaceman) opportunity column (here on DLF) first, to check my thinking, but I think week eight was the myth, not the other way around. This may be the first real chance to “buy” him in dynasty for 2020.
Running back is always more of a “this season” move, and I have concerns over how long it’s taken these players to “earn” more volume. But I’ll take a swing if I’m contending. Jonathan Taylor is good, and not Trent Richardson… I think.
It’s Corey Davis SZN
Anyone following me on Twitter is well aware it’s Corey Davis SZN, that’s partly why I’ve been taking pains to point out how well AJ Brown has been doing in dynasty analysis. However, some, apparently, are still unaware.
Quietly?
Quietly!
The shhhhhhade https://t.co/FSz6FsqMb5
— Peter Howard (@pahowdy) November 3, 2020
Davis has a 25% targets share, ranks 16th in PPG at the wide receiver position and has a 1.14 yards per team attempt, which ranks second at the position for aDots between nine and ten.
Now, as I have said in this series, AJ Brown is a smoking hot dynasty asset, and Tennessee has emerged as a better team than expected. With Ryan Tannehill at the helm, it seems, the offense has blossomed. We’ve seen Jonnu Smith and Davis finally break out into the top 12 and top 24 at their positions (both threshold I use as the definition of “breaking out”).
Long-term, Davis has a top 24 ceiling, and teams with two top 24 wide receivers typically don’t repeat the feat the following year. But Davis’s overall career has been, well, good. He finished as WR25 in his second year and is looking to add his name to the rare fourth-year, first-round, breakout list along with DeVante Parker in 2019.
Aside from a lesson not to “completely” give up on first-round players with good profiles who have shown “some” ability to produce in their first three years (N’Keal Harry maybe?) I’d also be willing to add him in dynasty if the price is a late first or below.
Last week’s Target hogs
Okay so before I get out of here I wanted to show you a quick something I whipped up using our seasonal database. By combining the weekly and season-long tabs I was able to create a list of players who most outperformed their seasonal target share in their most recent game.
The “Diff” column is the difference between their seasonal targets hare and the target share from the last game they played (in week seven or eight). Some quick notes:
Jakobi Meyers, WR NE
Stepped in with Harry and Julian Edelman out last week. Meyers has been persistently impressive (enough) when there is room to earn opportunity.
Braxton Berrios, WR NYJ
Claimed back some of his role in his return, though not enough to push Denzel Mims below a 20% target share this year through two games. Mims’ aDot also rose now we have two games to look at, but not enough to say he’ll compete more down the field moving forward.
Michael Gallup, WR DAL
Looks like a random spike week to me. This is a thing he’ll do (because he’s good!) from time to time as I noted last time I mentioned him here. But he likely won’t maintain that kind of role on a week-to-week basis moving forward.
Anthony Miller, WR CHI
Don’t get it twisted, while I liked Miller, it’s Darnell Mooney who has been the consistent riser in this offense. While both did well last week, Mooney’s production was on a target share (15%) relatively consistent with his season-long numbers (14% right now) whereas Miller’s influx of targets (27% in week eight) looks less sustainable. Mooney has been steadily growing in this offense.
While both make for decent dynasty players moving forward, I think it’s Mooney who looks to have the inside track on a more promising production curve.
Imagining either of them and Allen Robinson, with an improved team situation, leads to the ghostly spectra of Tennessee in 2020 at some point in the future. I’d at least want to buy them now before the rumor mill starts pushing them as “sleepers” with more value this off-season. That’s what I suspect may happen.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT
I’m not convinced Claypool only goes off when Diontae Johnson is injured. I think he may just be good, but suffering “rookie” usage. Also, I hope you’re still buying all three Pittsburgh WRs at this point in dynasty.
Well, that’s all for this week folks. If you want to see any or all of my 2020 data you can find it through this link.
You can ask me about any of it, anytime, either in the comments below or on Twitter (@pahowdy.)
Thanks for checking it out this week, and good luck in week nine.
Peter Howard
(@pahowdy)
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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