IDP Waiver Wire: Week Nine
Notable IDP Assets on Bye this week
DL: Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett
LB: BJ Goodson, Micah Kiser, Nate Gerry
DB: John Johnson III, Taylor Rapp, Ronnie Harrison, Jessie Bates
(Woohoo! Last week’s “cover athlete” Stephon Tuitt finished the week as the number one defensive end in week eight pending MNF. Mini fist bump for all of you who track along with me every week )
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 11 Hits, 10 Average, 7 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 16 Hits, 8 Average, 8 Busts
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week Eight Observations
- Prior IDP Waiver Wire shoutout Ja’Whaun Bentley had yet another impressive outing against the Bills in a great matchup. His sack shows even more upside than we thought he had perhaps at first.
- After a great start to the season, Chase Winovich’s snap share has really tailed off of late. He should be relegated to fantasy benches until we see signs of life from him.
- The only Buffalo Bills defensive lineman I am even considering right now is Jerry Hughes. Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa and Quinton Jefferson are too risky for me, even with Buffalo’s recent success rushing the passer.
- Ronnie Harrison’s breakout season is still well in effect, but the home stats crew was absolutely brutal for him yesterday. He racked up ten tackles, but only two were recorded as solos. Don’t worry about him just yet.
- Olivier Vernon finally broke through with two sacks in week eight, but Larry Ogunjobi is next. I’m just going to keep saying it until it happens…
- The Lions’ startable IDP assets are Tracy Walker, Jamie Collins, and Romeo Okwara. That’s it right now.
- DeShon Elliott is a safety who’s done it all this season in terms of splash plays. He is probably rostered somewhere, but if not, he is a steady DB2 or DB3.
- Patrick Queen is extremely frustrating, but his upside is too high to bench him.
- Chiefs defensive lineman Tershawn Wharton is a VERY deep name to put on your mental list. After forcing a fumble against the Broncos last week and getting a sack against the Jets this week, he’s starting to make a real impact.
- Chargers safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and Nasir Adderley are must-adds if available until it becomes Derwin James’ backfield again.
- Jamal Adams should return next week, so Ryan Neal’s time in IDP stardom is over.
- Tahir Whitehead only played 61% of snaps on Thursday night, which is concerning. I’d only start him out of bye week/injury desperation.
Before you dig in to this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters who have tough matchups ahead in week nine who you may consider benching for a dart throw found below:
DL: Kerry Hyder, JJ Watt
LB: Jayon Brown, Kyzir White, Tahir Whitehead
DB: Jeremy Chinn, Duron Harmon, Tracy Walker
Good luck this week! It’s about time for that final playoff push! How time flies…
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Entering week eight, these were the leaders in Disruption Score across the league (minimum 15 tackles).
“Cheap” dynasty names worth acquiring/picking up on that list? Stephon Tuitt, Romeo Okwara, Ifeadi Odenigbo, and Kerry Hyder. These four combined for four sacks and 22(!) total tackles over the weekend, showing just how predictive Disruption Score can be into future sack production. Looking over the rest of the list (and beyond), let’s see some other dynasty IDP investments worth securing:
Defensive Line
Arik Armstead, DE SF (Season Disruption Score: 30.19 ~ DL #15 overall)
Armstead saw a dip in snap count against the Patriots in week seven (58%), but his performance has proven this is only a temporary dip. He had a positive matchup yesterday against a below-average Seahawks offensive line, but wasn’t quite able to get to Russell Wilson to bring home a sack.
Armstead has posted a phenomenal Disruption Score thus far in the season, even while only producing one and a half sacks through eight games. This metric has shown to identify sack breakout candidates all year long, and I expect Armstead to be a solid bye-week fill in even in an extremely difficult matchup against the Packers on Thursday night.
Christian Covington, DT CIN (Season Disruption Score: 14.24 ~ DL #49 overall)
The extremely messy departure of Carlos Dunlap last week via trade opened up a door on an IDP-rich defensive line, and Covington appeared to be the main beneficiary of this opportunity yesterday in terms of production. Covington racked up four tackles against the run-heavy Titans in week eight, the most of any defensive lineman on the team.
While he couldn’t quite get through their offensive line to make a disruptive play, this is a player to possibly pick up on his bye week, in case you are looking for a solid DT2 in DT-featured leagues.
Linebacker
Harold Landry III, LB TEN (Season Disruption Score: 12.17 ~ LB #11 overall)
Landry has always been listed as a boom-bust linebacker, with a lot more busts than booms in recent memory. For these reasons, you may actually be able to find the 24-year-old second-round pick on your dynasty waiver wire.
Landry has been able to impact the opponent’s game plans in ways that haven’t appeared on the stat sheet thus far, but everything I’ve seen when watching him play suggests that is due to change. He plays about 95% of the snaps on a weekly basis, and the Bears have been unable to block anyone in the trenches over the past few weeks.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Shelby Harris, DE DEN (Week Nine, @ Atlanta)
In terms of juicy matchups, few are juicier than one against the Falcons on the road. Atlanta is currently surrendering the third-most fantasy points to defensive ends, averaging 38.9 IDP points allowed per game. Bradley Chubb and Malik Reed have inserted themselves as the immediate threats for Atlanta to plan against, leaving Harris with plenty of opportunity to get by the line and come up with a splash play (or two) of his own.
Atlanta’s offense plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the league, which results in more overall plays and a higher volume snap count for teams facing against them. Harris is one of my favorite plug-and-plays if you need help along the defensive line this week.
Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE KC (Week Nine, vs. Carolina)
The Panthers gave up three sacks and six quarterback hits in their primetime matchup against the Falcons, and Kpassagnon has been a bright spot on the Kansas City defensive line. The 2017 second-round pick has strung together a few good games in a row. Kpassagnon played 96% of the snaps in week seven against the Broncos, and the Panthers are a reeling team that has been prone to give up a big play of late.
Linebacker
Josey Jewell, LB DEN (Week Nine, @ Atlanta)
After Jewell’s huge game against the Jets in week four, he hasn’t done much of anything in terms of IDP production. Until yesterday. Jewell hauled in ten total tackles (six solo) at home versus the Chargers in their *amazing* comeback, which is massively comforting to frustrated IDP owners.
The Broncos are finally starting to get back in their usual rhythm in terms of offensive performance with Drew Lock under center, which should finally let Denver’s defense do the same. Fire Jewell up in that matchup against Atlanta next week, due to the fantastic snap count floor we discussed in recommending Shelby Harris as well.
Neville Hewitt or Harvey Langi, LBs NYJ (Week Nine, vs. New England)
In case you didn’t hear last night, the New York Jets traded Avery Williamson to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a fifth-round pick. (The potential for a trade like this at the deadline was why I suggested Vince Williams as a dynasty add over Robert Spillane, but that’s beside the point. If you had Spillane today, it was all worth it anyway…ha).
While I’m not sure I am all-in on Williamson as an IDP trade target in his new landing spot, I AM all-in on obtaining Neville Hewitt or Harvey Langi or Blake Cashman as a cheap target with insanely high tackle opportunity the rest of the season. Any time you can find someone guaranteed to play a lot of snaps on a poor defense that will get exploited often, you lick your lips as someone who plays IDP. Don’t believe me? Just ask those who went and got Tyrell Adams three weeks ago…
Defensive Backs
Marlon Humphrey, CB BAL (Week Nine, @ Indianapolis)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home-run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Humphrey is someone who provides that lottery ticket-type spark, but also has a great tackle floor to fall back on in case the splash play doesn’t come through regardless.
He has 26 tackles over the past four weeks, with one interception and five passes defended thus far on the season. Philip Rivers has played his best football over the past three weeks, but seasoned fantasy players also know there are few people in the game less likely to throw a crazy pick-six than Rivers. Humphrey is a great home run Hail Mary for week nine in a game where Baltimore looks to bounce back after a sorry showing yesterday.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
