Sunday Six Pack: Week Eight
Welcome to the Sunday Six Pack. Here are six things I am watching with particular attention in week eight.
What can Mike Evans produce?
Evans was a popular off-season fade after Tom Brady’s arrival in Tampa. But why, given Evans’ consistent production regardless of quarterback play? If he can produce as a WR1 as a rookie tied to Josh McCown and Mike Glennon – and every year since – surely he can continue with the GOAT.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
But through seven weeks, it was the right move. After back to back weeks receiving just two targets, Evans sits at WR21. He is on pace for half the targets and receiving yards per game as last year.
Mike Evans in three games *without* Chris Godwin: 19/267/3 (on 27 targets)
Evans in three games with Godwin: 4/14/3 (on 10 targets)
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 22, 2020
His season is even disappointing relative to his positional ADP, which remained in the top ten despite the trendy talk of discounting.
Chris Godwin (finger) is out this week and the Bucs face the Giants, whose pass defense is among the worst third in the league. It is a prime spot for Evans to produce. But will he?
Which Cam Newton will we get?
Through week three, Newton was fantasy’s QB7. Since then, he was diagnosed with Covid, had a week five bye then two games in which he threw zero touchdowns and five interceptions, and was benched for Jarrett Stidham.
Excluding a week two shootout at Seattle, Newton averages just 21.8 pass attempts per game and will be without Julian Edelman (knee) at Buffalo.
This week may be a test of the creativity of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Regardless, I am eager to see if Newton can regain the form of a reliable fantasy starter. It may have to happen on the ground. He is on pace for a 150-781-16 rushing line this season.
GOING DEEP AT RB
Fantasy depth is more important this season than any other, and now comes the heart of bye-week season. Four teams are off this week. Here are two end-of-bench running backs to watch.
With Miles Sanders out, Boston Scott handled 69% of week seven snaps, 15 of 20 running back touches and five targets. With Sanders out again, Scott should be serviceable against a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed and yards per rush.
Seattle’s fourth-round rookie DeeJay Dallas may take over (for at least a week) a prime fantasy backfield spot. Since Pete Carroll joined the Seahawks in 2010, five of his ten lead running backs in notoriously run-heavy offenses finished with a top-12 season.
Even with this year’s long-awaited shift to a pass-oriented offense, Chris Carson was a top-five fantasy RB through week five. The source of Carson’s points has shifted from rushing to receiving. In 2019, 31% of his production came from receptions, receiving yards and TDs. A whopping 51% comes from the passing game this year.
Source: The DLF Percentage Fantasy Points App.
Can Dallas step in? He caught only 28 passes as a Miami (FL) Hurricane and never more than 14 in a season. Not sure, but he looked comfortable last week as a runner.
Deejay Dallas nas poucas chances que teve na NFL pic.twitter.com/TMvbGuvcRR
— Alexandre Castro (@alexcastrofilho) October 22, 2020
Heck, Seattle may opt to send him out on pass routes rather than see him pass protect like this.
What is DeeJay Dallas ACTUALLY looking at here? pic.twitter.com/KuGA5LCkOy
— James Swanson (@PadtheStats) October 26, 2020
ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS
It was not uncommon for 2020 rookie drafts to see five running backs to go off the board before the first receiver. So who expected the rookie wide receiver class to steal the show? Four rookies rank in the top 25 at the position heading into week eight. They’re up against it this week, however, either due to tough matchups (Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins) or reliance upon a third-string quarterback (CeeDee Lamb).
Their dynasty values are taking similar upward paths since the season began, as shown by our Dynasty ADP Comparison tool. Higgins, with an elite prospect profile and immediate NFL production in a pass-happy offense, somehow remains a relative value while Claypool is the fastest riser of the four.
BENNY THE NOOCH
He has a starting job to go along with facial hair and a potentially catchy nickname. Pieces are in place for Ben DiNucci to become a prime dynasty asset. But first things first.
The Cowboys saw enough from DiNucci’s college career to make him a seventh-round pick. The 23-year old rookie spent his first three years at Pitt before starting all 29 games his final two seasons at James Madison.
In 2019 he threw for 3,441 yards and 29 touchdowns (to six interceptions) en route to being named the CAA offensive player of the year. His 70.9% completion percentage led the nation and he added 569 yards and seven touchdowns rushing. In his first NFL start, look for him to flee the pocket against an Eagles defense capable of pressuring the quarterback.
Ben DiNucci was sacked three times on six dropbacks last week.
The Eagles are 10th in the league in pressure rate (24.1%) and third in the league in sacks (24), while just 27th in blitz rate (21.9%).
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 29, 2020
A bit of rushing production may prop up his floor.
Here is a look at his first NFL completion:
Ben DiNucci’s first pass goes to @AmariCooper9 for 32 yards! #DallasCowboys
📺: #DALvsWAS on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/LXEQNiXMs9 pic.twitter.com/mLDKwxkvO6— NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2020
THE STEELERS WRs
The reshuffling of the Pittsburgh receiver corps is among the season’s top surprises.
Chase Claypool leads the group in fantasy points and is the overall WR24, but has the fewest targets of the group. Diontae Johnson has the most targets per game (8.2) but is third in fantasy points, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is a disappointment as WR32. James Washington has nearly as many targets as Claypool but is far less productive (2.79 PPR points per touch to Claypool’s 3.73). To be fair, Claypool’s production is second in the league only to that of DK Metcalf (4.33 PPR pts/touch; minimum 4.0 touches per game).
While that efficiency will be difficult to sustain, I want to see how the group continues to evolve. With Johnson back in the lineup last week, Claypool received only one target, and a healthy Johnson has been productive.
Diontae Johnson with a TD & 25 targets in his only two healthy games of 2020 entering today. I mean I know we all love Chase Claypool but…
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 25, 2020
These are the six stories I am following this week. What do you think? What are you looking for this week? Will “The Nooch” catch on as a nickname? Share your thoughts in the comments or find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as the games unfold.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021