IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five
What’s up everyone! It took us until week four, but this season has officially gone off the rails. From Pittsburgh-Tennessee-Baltimore’s bye weeks going crazy, to Cam Newton somehow being the only player to test positive for COVID-19(??), to endless Twitter discussions about ways to allow leagues to substitute players, this will definitely go down as one of the craziest and most stressful fantasy seasons of all time. Let’s dig in and find some IDP values on that waiver wire (or just great dynasty IDP buys in general) to help make this season a little less stressful!
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 4 Hits, 7 Average, 3 Busts (pending Walker MNF)
Matchup-Based Adds~ 7 Hits, 3 Average, 4 Busts
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week Four Observations
- The linebacker situation in Cleveland is an absolute mess. The only viable option there right now is BJ Goodson, but even then, he looked awful. Sione Takitaki, Malcolm Smith, and Jacob Phillips are clear avoids for the foreseeable future, but if I’m stashing one, it’s still Takitaki for me.
- Trevon Diggs is not a good cornerback. Smart teams will attack this weakness. Volume is king. Start Trevon Diggs.
- Another extremely deep IDP stash is long forgotten linebacker Reggie Ragland. He surpassed Jahlani Tavai for LB3 duties this week, but it’s a nice blip on the radar for those who were so high on him coming out of college. I’d simply monitor this situation for now rather than actually roster him unless you have space.
- Romeo Okwara is staying disruptive, with a sack and three quarterback hits against the Saints yesterday. Hopefully you picked him up last week!
- Congratulations to those who were patient with Matt Judon against the reeling Washington Football Team this week. With Patrick Queen posting a dominant 12(!) tackles this week, I’d look to capitalize on this and sell Judon high.
- Washington gave their entire defensive line a spin with Chase Young out with a groin injury, and nobody emerged in their opportunity. I still prefer Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat to the rest, but none are confident starts right now.
- Last week’s article said this: “If Budda Baker is out one game to get a minor surgery, the safety you’d want in his absence is Deionte Thompson; however, I don’t think anyone could just come in and do exactly what Budda Baker does on a football field.” Thompson came in and was effective, but this is not a priority add, as Baker should be back soon.
- Dynasty managers breathed a heavy sigh of relief with Yetur Gross-Matos finally having a good sighting. He posted good numbers against Kyler Murray, producing a sack and forcing a fumble in separate plays.
- Fourth-round pick DJ Wonnum got the sack yesterday, but Ifeadi Odenigbo is still the defensive end to invest in behind Danielle Hunter and Yannick Ngakoue.
- Eric Wilson is officially the Vikings linebacker to own instead of Todd Davis. This was expected, but I’m just wrapping up that point from last week’s article.
- Taylor Rapp may have stolen his job back for good with Jordan Fuller out for the Rams once again. Neither are trustworthy starts, and this uncertainty makes Rapp a great sell-high candidate.
- Pierre Desir got torched by Brett Rypien for most of the game, but his opportunity led to two interceptions. Like Trevon Diggs, he is someone who is startable based purely on volume rather than skill.
- Josey Jewell is going to stick around in that system for a while I believe. I’m looking to invest in him as a trade target.
- We had an Alec Ogletree sighting (56% of snaps), but he turned it into a lousy one tackle.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Morgan Fox, DE LAR (Disruption Score: 21.65)
Fox was quite literally the only bright spot in what was otherwise the most boring game of the 2020-21 season. He has as many sacks in the last two weeks as he did in the entire 2019-20 season, and also had four solo tackles against a struggling Giants offense. Fox is still pretty young at 26 years old, and has potential to turn in an occasional splash play while offensive lines scheme around limiting studs Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. This one’s a bit of a reach, but the market is pretty dry this week specifically for defensive line talent.
Davon Godchaux, DE MIA (Disruption Score: 36.86)
Another player who has posted a phenomenal Disruption Score on the season despite not earning a single sack yet is Davon Godchaux. We were right about Emmanuel Ogbah thriving in their matchup against Seattle in last week’s article, and now I think Godchaux is due for a big play. Christian Wilkins is a top-five defensive tackle in this league and will always be the main IDP asset between the tackles, but there is potential for Godchaux to return value in DT-specific IDP leagues as well. He’s posted a beefy 16 tackles over the first four games of the season, and Marion Hobby is doing an excellent job generating pressure over the past couple weeks.
Linebacker
Kyler Fackrell, LB NYG (Disruption Score: 17.42)
If it wasn’t for Fackrell on Sunday, the Giants would not have been able to keep this game nearly as respectable as it turned out to be. Fackrell was making an impact all over the field against the Rams yesterday, coming up with big plays when their defense needed it most. He briefly left in the second half due to a neck injury, but he was able to finish the game and heads into their matchup against Dallas, a team that has not protected Dak Prescott as well as they have been able to historically, with a ton of momentum to make another big play off the edge.
Elandon Roberts, LB MIA (Disruption Score: 11.27)
I had my eye on Roberts as a potential LB2 after a moderate debut, but his concussion scared me away from recommending him as a pickup for the time being. Fast forward to today, and Roberts has posted seven and nine tackles, respectively, in his last two outings. Jerome Baker is still the alpha of this defense and a top ten IDP asset every week, but Roberts has serious value as a steady LB2/high-end LB3 on your roster. The Dolphins rebuild is still very much in effect, which leads to negative game scripts, and ultimately leads to their opponents running out the clock far more often against them. This guarantees tremendous volume for Elandon Roberts, and boosts his tackle floor much higher than a linebacker on a dominant defense, such as the Steelers. He also poked the ball out from Chris Carson in the second quarter, which led to his impressive Disruption Score this week.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Benson Mayowa, DE SEA (Week Five, vs. Minnesota)
Seattle is still trying to generate a meaningful pass rush unit, and few opponents are easier to attack in the trenches than Minnesota right now. Houston was able to hit Kirk Cousins in the backfield nine times in week four, with three sacks to boot. Mayowa led the defensive line in tackles this week against Miami, and although the Seahawks have only racked up three sacks over their last two games, Mayowa has a great matchup against Brian O’Neill and Riley Reiff. I don’t mind taking a flier on him if you’re desperate in this COVID/injury-plagued season.
Bryce Huff, DE NYJ (Week Five, vs. Arizona)
I know. A Jets defensive end?! The waiver wire must be barren!!
1.) It is.
2.) This recommendation is 75% based on their opponent.
Regardless of the team, I tend to think it’s important to have the number one guy in a team’s position group. While the Jets’ ability to generate pressure has been laughable at best (with the exception of Quinnen Williams), Huff is the one currently getting the most action along the Jets’ defensive line. Huff got to play 60% of the snaps against Denver on Thursday night, and Gregg Williams is going to let him get an opportunity to develop before relegating him to the bench indefinitely. This is a super cheap investment that could potentially pay off much higher than other options out there, especially against an Arizona team that is simply lost right now.
Linebacker
Samson Ebukam, LB LAR (Week Five, @ Washington)
Who didn’t pop off on the Ravens’ defense against Washington this week? Ebukam has a pretty low tackle floor, but has been known to come away with a big play every now and then. Matthew Judon and Jaylon Ferguson both had themselves a day in the OLB role against Washington this week. I can see Ebukam and Leonard Floyd posting similar numbers in Los Angeles.
Duke Riley, LB PHI (Week Five, @ Pittsburgh)
While Riley had a tough night against San Francisco in prime time, I like him as a bounce-back candidate against their in-state rivals next week. Pittsburgh has given up plenty of action to linebackers facing off against them this season, surrendering 18.7 tackles to their top two linebackers on average. Should the Steelers come out hot after an additional week’s rest due to their postponement with Tennessee, it will only boost Riley’s tackle floor as the game script works in his favor in terms of IDP production. He would be an LB3/4 option for me in week five, but nobody has emerged behind Nate Gerry has a viable option yet in Philadelphia and he has the potential to do so in this matchup.
Defensive Backs
Antoine Winfield, SS TB (Week Five, @ Chicago)
This is my favorite recommendation of the week. I’ve been looking to acquire Winfield Jr. in every single one of my IDP leagues, and this week may finally be the chance to do so if he is already rostered. The rookie second-round pick has been absolutely electric to start off his career, posting 25 tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble already. The flow of the game against the Chargers simply got away from one that would benefit Winfield this week, leaving Winfield with only two tackles. I strongly recommend looking to buy low on Winfield before his Thursday night matchup against Chicago, and if he is somehow still on waivers, it is by far my #1 recommended add of the week. The Buccaneers have only rolled out ~18-20 total players on defense this season, which means his snap percentage is as secure as you’ll find. He has the potential to be a DB1 for a while.
Ryan Neal, FS SEA (Week Five, vs. Minnesota)
He’s no Jamal Adams, but he has been impressive in his absence. Neal snagged an interception in each of his last two games, with another prime matchup coming up against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. He really doesn’t have any standalone value in dynasty, but he is a great handcuff if you were let down by not having Jamal Adams start for you this week, and is a fine set-it-and-forget-it starter for as long as you may need him.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
